Jump to content
Join the Unexplained Mysteries community today! It's free and setting up an account only takes a moment.
- Sign In or Create Account -

Kerry Opens Leads in Several Key States


Fluffybunny

Recommended Posts

I heard something on the news the other day...

WASHINGTON - Sen. John Kerry has opened narrow leads in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and a handful of other battleground state polls since accepting the Democratic nomination, increasing pressure on President Bush to regain lost ground at the Republican National Convention.

The incumbent hopes to reverse Kerry's gains by reminding voters of his leadership after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, outlining a second-term agenda that includes new domestic policies and questioning Kerry's qualifications to be commander in chief.

Buoyed by the polls, Kerry's team is growing confident — maybe too confident for some Democrats. Several supporters worry that rising expectations are setting the party up for disappointment should the race tighten after Bush's convention in New York, which begins Aug. 30.

"You never want to point to your best poll numbers or your worst poll numbers, because neither hold," said Democratic strategist Dane Strother.

The Kerry campaign has plenty of positive numbers to cite, including:

_ A Quinnipiac University poll showing Kerry and his running mate, John Edwards (news - web sites), with a slight lead in Florida over Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites).

_ An Epic-MRA survey suggesting that Michigan is tilting slightly toward the Democratic ticket.

_ An American Research Group survey showing Kerry-Edwards with small lead in New Hampshire.

Those three states, with a combined 48 electoral votes, were evenly split between Kerry and Bush before last month's Democratic National Convention in Boston.

In addition, Pennsylvania and Oregon — a combined 28 electoral votes — were evenly split in July, and now the states appear to tilt toward Kerry, according to private polling and interviews with strategists in both parties.

While national polls show the race still tied or Kerry slightly ahead, the convention helped him trim Bush's advantage on national security. In a campaign this close, it doesn't take much to tilt a state from "tossup" to "lean Kerry."

And it wouldn't take much to push them back into the tossup category.

"After Kerry's pick of Edwards, the Democrat convention highlighting Kerry, and all the big momentum they were supposed to have, Kerry only leads by a couple of points? This is trouble for him because between their convention and Election Day, challengers always lose ground," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd.

For now, it's the incumbent who has to make up ground.

If public polls and pundits are right, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oregon and 15 others states plus the District of Columbia are in Kerry's column or leaning his way with 269 electoral votes — one short of the presidency.

But it's not nearly that simple.

Florida still appears to be a tossup state, with Kerry leading by only a few points in private Democratic polling.

In Pennsylvania, a preponderance of polling gives Kerry an edge, but Bush isn't giving up on the state that he has visited 31 times, his favorite destination among the 50. In fact, he has intensified his television advertising in Pennsylvania and five other states: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

Mark them down. They may be the most important states of the campaign.

Florida and Ohio, the latter with 20 electoral votes, offer Kerry his best chance of winning big states that went Republican in 2000. Nevada, with just five votes, may be Kerry's next ripest GOP target.

Since his first day in office, Pennsylvania has been No. 1 on Bush's wish-list of states won by Al Gore (news - web sites) in 2000. If he can't win the Keystone State, the president would turn to New Mexico and Wisconsin, with a combined 15 electoral votes that went to Gore.

Because of reapportionment, which reallocated state electoral votes based on the latest population data, Kerry could reclaim every Gore state and still be 10 electoral votes short of the coveted 270.

Quoting public polls, Kerry aides say their boss is leading Bush, often narrowly, in 24 states plus the District of Columbia for a total of 316 electoral votes. They say Bush's presidency is hanging by a thread. "This is not a good place for the incumbent to be," said Kerry pollster Mark Mellman.

That may be true, but some Democrats would rather not hear about raised expectations.

"You always have to strike a balance between recognizing a good moment and setting the bar so high that in a couple of weeks, particularly after the Republican convention, you've created an image that you've lost momentum," said Greg Haas, a Democratic strategist in Ohio who advises Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman.

Warming up for the GOP convention, Bush has accused Kerry of sending "mixed signals" on Iraq (news - web sites) and Cheney has mocked the Democrat for supporting a "more sensitive" war on terror.

Bush's acceptance speech will be laced with policy initiatives, some of them new, in a bid to persuade voters that he has a second-term agenda for the economy, health care and other issues that Democrats consider their own.

Just as Kerry convinced some voters that he's tough enough to lead the nation at war, Bush hopes to show the electorate that he's capable of directing the nation back to peace and prosperity.

Link to actual article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 30
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Babs

    10

  • Fluffybunny

    8

  • Michelle

    4

  • wunarmdscissor

    3

Man, why do you act as if any poll that showed Bush in the lead was false, or never existed?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you speaking of Babs Mystery Poll?

The one that no one could ever backup and show was true? That wasn't a poll misinterpreted by babs?

Go back and re-read the topic before you say anything about what I have or have not done.

Babs said that Bush was ahead coast to coast. I searched for this poll and could not find any such news that was even close, and kept finding polls that showed that it was a dead heat. I went back and asked her where that came from, and she pulled the famous "I heard it on the news...CNN" but couldn't back anything up. I looked on her behalf to find ANY poll that showed bush ahead across the country and there was no such poll.

If you would read what I posted you would find that I never ignored anything but babs imaginary poll.

The information that I posted showed that the race was a dead heat with the margin of seperation between the two being less than the margin of error in most cases. I never said Bush wasn't ahead in some states, and Kerry in others.

I was simply posting information linked to actuall polls that showed that Bush wasn't ahead in all states as babs claimed.

Now I have posted a link to a poll that shows that Kerry is ahead in some key states.

Is Kerry ahead in all of them, NO.

Is Kerry ahead in most of them, NO.

Is Bush ahead in all of them NO.

Stellar, I am simply posting a poll that shows that Bush isn't so far ahead as some people here would like to think that he is.

Why does that bother you so much? Does it hit a little close to home?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fluffy, I love you will you marry me? Oh geez, I forgot I am already. Wait for me, please? wub.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Get in line tongue.gif I want my very own Fluffy grin2.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fluffy: I've read that thread, but I wasnt really refering to it. I just got the hint that you were implying that all the other polls that supported Bush werent true... You've gotta admit... "With references to real polls..." that gives that kind of impression.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you asking for a fight Seraphina? disgust.gif Beware, I don't get riled up very easy but when I do.... tongue.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fluffy: I've read that thread, but I wasnt really refering to it. I just got the hint that you were implying that all the other polls that supported Bush werent true... You've gotta admit... "With references to real polls..." that gives that kind of impression.

My reference to "Real Polls" was a jab at babs' magical mystery poll that never seemed to materialize regardless of who went searching for it.

The questionable claim was usually followed by something like "GO BUSH 2004" or "The Republicans haven't even started yet!"

When I post here and offer something as a fact, I always try to post a link to my sources or sources. Of course an opinion is just that, and needs to source, but to try and pass an opinion off as a fact isn't right(In my opinion), and that is why I made issue of it.

The polls will go up and down several times, and until November no one will know who is really going to be the next president. I just want people to vote with their beliefs(If they are legal voters in the US that is...no offence to our wonderful brother and sisters to the north and overseas), regardless of what they may be.

I do have to say that I am so incredibly flattered by Seraphina and Michelles comments. I can assure you I turned 4 seperate shades of red(if not more) when I read them. wub.gif I was giddy like a schoolboy I tell ya...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I said I heard that Bush was in the lead coast to coast. I never said anything else....nothing about a poll. blink.gif That's what the anchorman said after he discussed polls on both Kerry and Bush....He said, Bush was leading coast to coast.

If you've heard something and 'say' it is what you 'heard'...you don't have to back it up with data. Saying you 'heard' something is valid. I didn't say it was true or not true, I said I heard it! If I was going to bring a subject up and I had data to back it up, I would say I heard something and I have data to back it up.. rolleyes.gif

The truth is, Fluffy tries to suppress our voice if it doesn't agree with his agenda.

I didn't know you were the leader, Fluffy....didn't mean to step on your toes. grin2.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The truth is, Fluffy tries to suppress our voice if it doesn't agree with his agenda.

My only agenda is the truth babs...

A novel idea I know, but a surprisingly good idea...

Babs, why is it so hard to admit that Bush isn't ahead in every state as you claimed?

Edited by Fluffybunny
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didn't claim it. I said I heard an anchorman say it_ twice_ on CNN... and Stellar heard something about this too.

Fluffy, I was wondering why you follow me around trying to pick a fight on the board... (you are like wun grin2.gif )...and I think I have figured it out. You think I am a threat to your leadership. You think I am competing for leadership, here.

This may come as a surprize, Fluffy, but I had no idea you were the leader; I thought everyone spoke for themselves. laugh.gif

Well, anyway I respect your age, I, however, disagree with your views. And this may come as a surprize to you, too, Fluffy, but you are 'not' my leader. I don't do 'leader'. w00t.gif

Edited by Babs
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What am I leading babs? How do you come to that conclusion? You keep saying that I am a leader, but I do not lead anything here.

Edited by Fluffybunny
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hum... cool.gif

A little help Babs...

What am I the leader of?

I don't understand what you are talking about.

This may come as a surprize, Fluffy, but I had no idea you were the leader; I thought everyone spoke for themselves.

Everyone does speak for themselves. I don't speak for anyone else but myself, as it should be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well all i can say is, OBVIOUSLY!!!

You people really expect that tyrant bush to win? HA!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just heard, from my husband, that John Kerry will be staying at my husband's office building this week. (in Cincinnati). There were secret service going 'all around' the floors of the building. My husband has his business on one floor and there is a hotel on the first. (CNN stayed there about 2 yrs. back).

I guess you could look this up, Fluff...if you wanted to. rolleyes.gif

My husband is going to get a BUSH/CHENEY sign and put it at the front door. w00t.giflaugh.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, and my county called me, yesterday....(republican group) _wanting to know who my husband and I were voting for. I told them BUSH!... original.gif

They thanked me and admonished, "Keep up the good work!" thumbsup.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All hail Master Fluff! rainfro.gifclap.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All hail Master Fluff! rainfro.gifclap.gif

There you go Fluff, your followers. grin2.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fluffy...

Well, I'm waiting. Do you want to check out the highrise hotel Kerry will be at on Tuesday? I can give you all the particulars...address and street, my husband's office and business. The hotel has 18 floors and I think Kerry will be on the 16th. You could probably fly here in time and I could meet you. cool.gif

I will tell the secret service "Fluffybunny would like to check it out!" w00t.giflaugh.gif I don't think they'd mind, do you?

The secret service told my husband that he wouldn't be able to have many people coming into his office that day.... and, of course, my husband said, "Why not?!" devil.giflaugh.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprisingly enough BOTH Bush and Kerry were in my town today, Portland Oregon...

I heard Bush’s speech on the radio as I was heading to an appointment...It was carried live on the local PBS radio station that I sometimes listen to. He had a good group of people with him there; I don't recall exactly where it was in town.

He made a few good points, fumbled a few lines (speaking isn't apparently his strength...) and kind of glossed over the negative aspects of the Iraq war(Terrorist links/WMD).

Overall he did a good job at stating his opinion, and pointed out what he was going to do to keep jobs from going overseas(Which really hurt the tech sector here), although what he said today was a lot different than his opinion of jobs going overseas in the past...Waffling? hmmm, I guess we will have to see...

Here is a photo of Bush at the docs in Portland today taken from OPB.org:

user posted image

Kerry was down at a place called Waterfront park, not too far from where Bush was. I think the poor Portland police were worn to a frazzle with both guys within a couple miles of each other at the same time...

You could probably fly here in time and I could meet you. 

I really like cincinnati a lot, it is a pretty town. I have been there a couple of times for business and enjoyed it...

So how much mace would you be carrying to meet me with?

**Fluff walks into airport terminal from plane**

**Walks over to woman carrying Fluffy sign**

Hi, you must be Babs, nice to mee...

**Squirt Squirt**

Aghhh!!!!

As for Kerry, he really isn't my favourite candidate as I have stated repeatedly. When it comes to presidential candidates I usually vote with my conscience and sometimes that leads me to vote for a libertarian candidate.

I don't consider voting a horserace as some here do, I am not trying to pick a winner. I feel that it is important to vote for whom you think is going to be the best candidate.

As the liberatarian party gains followers that are unhappy with the current two party system, we have seen several local/state positions filled by libertarians, and the party is the 3rd largest party around behind dems and republicans. We are actually bigger than all of the rest of the parties combined(minus dems and republicans of course). Go to www.lp.org for details...

Anywho...as I said many times, Kerry isn't my favorite candidate, but I think that Bush is making so many mistakes in so many areas that I am willing to give Kerry my vote to help get Bush out of office...If you somehow imagine me to be a banner waiving Kerry fan, you are sorely mistaken.

I am happy you are happy with Bush, I want people to vote for who they think is going to do the best job, that is how our wonderful democracy works...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its called tactical voting fluffy and i really respect that your using your vote wisely.

Babs wot does age have to do with anything???

You said "fluffy i respect your age".

Huh???

The secret service told my husband that he wouldn't be able to have many people coming into his office that day.... and, of course, my husband said, "Why not?!"

Oh how witty ha ha ha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, Cincy is a beautiful town. When i was a child i ate in a restraunt across the ohio river on the kentucky side. The restraunt was on top of a hotel and rotated around in a circle. Yout could see the whole city and was really cool looking at nite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey thanks wun. I didn't know there was a particular term for my kind of voting. I always thought of it as practical voting. blink.gif I don't like to be a follower of anything including political parties. Make that especially political parties.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.