37 replies to this topic

[DONTEATUS]

I like your thinking Waspie The Old Shell game, maybe in the distant future we will be able to do such things. But for now Its Lets finger out our World and its people.
Man I miss Mid ! He would Love to commit on this . And actually have the numbers and common sence to show why and why not . Cheers All !

[danielost]

Waspie_Dwarf, on 16 January 2013 - 05:53 PM, said:

Yes, because mining an asteroid which is on a collision course with Earth and about to kill millions of people would make perfect sense.

Using the deflection methiod would take months to years to work, assuming worked at all.  As some else pointed out you might make it worse.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

danielost, on 19 January 2013 - 05:27 AM, said:

Using the deflection methiod would take months to years to work, assuming worked at all.

And your point is. We are currently searching for and cataloging NEOs. We will now which ones pose a threat years or decades in advance. Those objects which appear out of nowhere are not going to give us tome to mount a mission anyway.

danielost, on 19 January 2013 - 05:27 AM, said:

As some else pointed out you might make it worse.

How exactly? Orbital mechanics is something that has been understood for centuries. NASA can launch a spacecraft fro Earth in 1977, have it's orbit altered by Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus and still stove at Neptune exactly as predicted 12 years later. Deflecting an asteroid requires the same mathematic principles.

You might not understand the principles but the scientists do. Besides if a large asteroid is on a collision course with Earth and you attempt to deflect it the worse case scenario is that you fail to deflect it and it still hits Earth, how can that make it worse?

Edited by Waspie_Dwarf, 19 January 2013 - 07:47 PM.
typos... darn phone spell checker.

[Lilly]

Use a tractor and tow it. No, I'm not kidding. http://apod.nasa.gov...d/ap120707.html

[danielost]

Lilly, on 19 January 2013 - 11:42 AM, said:

Use a tractor and tow it. No, I'm not kidding. http://apod.nasa.gov...d/ap120707.html

Sorry ma'am but that is the samething as the opening post.

[danielost]

Waspie_Dwarf, on 19 January 2013 - 09:06 AM, said:

And your point is. We are currently searching for and cataloging BROs. We will now which ones pose a threat years or decades in advance. Those objects which appear out of nowhere are not going to give us tome to mount a mission anyway.


How exactly? Orbital mechanics is something that has been understood for centuries. NASA can launch a spacecraft fro Earth in 1977, have it's orbit altered by Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus and still stove at Neptune exactly as predicted 12 years later. Deflecting an asteroid requires the same mathematic principles.

You might not understand the principles but the scientists do. Besides if a large asteroid is on a collision course with Earth and you attempt to deflect it the worse case scenario is that you fail to deflect it and it still hits Earth, how can that make it worse?

Yes, we know how things work.  But considering we only know about 10% of what's out there, we wouldn't know if hadn't sent it too another body or gravity field.  Besides when was the last man did anything without messing it up.

[Lilly]

danielost, on 19 January 2013 - 05:05 PM, said:

Sorry ma'am but that is the samething as the opening post.

Deflection via small impacts is one idea being looked at, towing via a gravitational tractor is another (posed by 2 former astronauts).

[DONTEATUS]

I say pull it over with Flashing Blue lights ,read-em-there rights.Give them a speeding ticket and throw the books at them ! THose pesky Assteroids !

[Waspie_Dwarf]

danielost, on 19 January 2013 - 05:14 PM, said:

Yes, we know how things work.

Well clearly you don't given the gibberish you spout as fact.

danielost, on 19 January 2013 - 05:14 PM, said:

But considering we only know about 10% of what's out there, we wouldn't know if hadn't sent it too another body or gravity field.

How do you know that we only now 10% of what is out there? I see that your long period away hasn't cured you of your habit is simply making stuff up and pretending it is fact.

Best estimates are that we know know over 80% of the Near Earth Objects over 1km in diameter. So where does your 10% come from.

You really have no idea what you are talking about do you. Objects don't just magically appear and deflect other objects, if they did it would be impossible to predict the orbital path of any object in the solar system. That is not the case, the EXACT position of an asteroid can be predicted decades in advance.

Gravity is a surprisingly weak force. In order to significantly influence an asteroid by gravity field an object would need to be either massive (and there are no hidden bodies that massive in the inner solar system) or, as in Lilly's example, remain in close proximity to our asteroid for many years.

Space is also very big. The chances of us deflecting an asteroid and it just happening to come into close proximity with another object which amazingly we managed not to notice are so vanishingly small as to be not worth worrying about.

Any asteroid we try to deflect would have it's orbit extremely well known (otherwiswe we wouldn't know it posses a threat) and it's mass can be estimated to a high degree of accuracy then it is a simple matter to calculate the forces necessary to deflect it.

By the way I'm still waiting for an answer to this question I asked you:

Waspie_Dwarf, on 19 January 2013 - 09:06 AM, said:

Besides if a large asteroid is on a collision course with Earth and you attempt to deflect it the worse case scenario is that you fail to deflect it and it still hits Earth, how can that make it worse?

So come on Daniel, I'm waiting, how is deflecting an asteroid going to make things worse?

danielost, on 19 January 2013 - 05:14 PM, said:

Besides when was the last man did anything without messing it up.

Speak for yourself.

[Lava_Lady]

If all else fails, we can revert to ancient methods like praying, drumming, maybe sacrifice a virgin or two... see if that works.

[danielost]

Dwarf, I think you misunderstood me.  I didn't mean blow it up.  I meant harvest it.  That way you make the problem go away.  Also the most expensive part of space flight is getting off of the Earth.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

danielost, on 21 February 2013 - 02:00 PM, said:

Dwarf, I think you misunderstood me.  I didn't mean blow it up.  I meant harvest it.  That way you make the problem go away.  Also the most expensive part of space flight is getting off of the Earth.

I didn't misunderstand you at all, which is why I know how ridiculous it is.

Your idea is not credible and based on a whole heap of misunderstandings and lack of knowledge on your part.

You seem to think that mining just makes stuff go away. This shows you have about the same understanding of mining as you do asteroids.. none at all. For every big hole in the ground that a mine creates there is a huge pile of material excavated from the ground, slag heaps. This is because only a small proportion of the material mined is useful. The same will be true for an asteroid. Only a small percentage will be of any use. So what will you do with the rest? If you just leave it then it will collide with the Earth anyway and your brilliant idea will have been a total failure. Or you could try deflecting it. But that would make your brilliant idea redundant. Not a lot going for your idea really is there?

Then there are the time constraints. You seem to think that the best way to deal with an asteroid that is on a collision course with Earth is to spend years or decades taking it apart piece by piece. Odd for someone whose complaint about deflecting an asteroid is that it would take years. How can you possibly think that any idea that would take even longer would be better. Please explain the logic behind that?

Surely the sane and intelligent thing to do would be to protect the Earth first. If an asteroid that threatens the Earth is deflected into a safe orbit then you would have all the time you wanted to mine it.

I understood what you were saying fully, I don't think you do.

Edited by Waspie_Dwarf, 21 February 2013 - 02:53 PM.

[DONTEATUS]

Im with Lava Lady ! Lets all go to The Islands and Pray to the The Gods !
Its the 1% that will get us ,That we know nothing of  Its track !

[danielost]

Waspie_Dwarf, on 21 February 2013 - 02:48 PM, said:

I didn't misunderstand you at all, which is why I know how ridiculous it is.

Your idea is not credible and based on a whole heap of misunderstandings and lack of knowledge on your part.

You seem to think that mining just makes stuff go away. This shows you have about the same understanding of mining as you do asteroids.. none at all. For every big hole in the ground that a mine creates there is a huge pile of material excavated from the ground, slag heaps. This is because only a small proportion of the material mined is useful. The same will be true for an asteroid. Only a small percentage will be of any use. So what will you do with the rest? If you just leave it then it will collide with the Earth anyway and your brilliant idea will have been a total failure. Or you could try deflecting it. But that would make your brilliant idea redundant. Not a lot going for your idea really is there?


Then there are the time constraints. You seem to think that the best way to deal with an asteroid that is on a collision course with Earth is to spend years or decades taking it apart piece by piece. Odd for someone whose complaint about deflecting an asteroid is that it would take years. How can you possibly think that any idea that would take even longer would be better. Please explain the logic behind that?

Surely the sane and intelligent thing to do would be to protect the Earth first. If an asteroid that threatens the Earth is deflected into a safe orbit then you would have all the time you wanted to mine it.

I understood what you were saying fully, I don't think you do.

That is on earth, in space mining you cut the whole astriod up.  Using the rock for soil and smelting the metls for other uses such as more ships.  No waste, no slag.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

danielost, on 21 February 2013 - 08:12 PM, said:

That is on earth, in space mining you cut the whole astriod up.  Using the rock for soil and smelting the metls for other uses such as more ships.  No waste, no slag.

And you are going to provide sources to back this up? Of course you can't because you are just making stuff up again.

I, on the other hand, will provide sources.



Here is an extract from wikipedia about asteroid mining:

Quote

There are three options for mining:

• Bring raw asteroidal material to Earth for use.
  
• Process it on-site to bring back only processed materials, and perhaps produce propellant for the return trip.
  
• Transport the asteroid to a safe orbit around the Moon, Earth or to the ISS. This can hypothetically allow for most materials to be used and not wasted.

Source: wikipedia

Notice that none of these options use all of the asteroid and only the last one uses most of it and that option requires modifying the orbit of the asteroid. Remarkably similar to what I said here:

Waspie_Dwarf, on 21 February 2013 - 02:48 PM, said:

If an asteroid that threatens the Earth is deflected into a safe orbit then you would have all the time you wanted to mine it.

More importantly notice that the second option, processing in situ, which is what you are suggesting, brings back "only processed materials".

There are two companies currently planing to mine asteroids, Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries. Neither of them are planning to "cut the asteroid up".

This is what Planetary Resources says:

Quote

Recovery and processing of materials in a microgravity environment will occur through significant research and development. Planetary Resources will lead the creation of critical in-situ extraction and processing technologies to provide access to both asteroidal water and metals. When combined with our low-cost deep space explorers, this represents an enabling capability for the sustainable development of space.

Source: Planetary Resources

Notice the use of the word "extraction". In other words they are taking only the useful resources, in this case water and metals.


Deep Space Industries are going for the 3rd option, moving small asteroids into an Earth-Moon libration. They emphasis the fact that this will make the Earth safer by removing potential hazardous objects from an orbit where they could hit the Earth, but they are deflecting the asteroid first and mining it second... exactly as I suggested.

Quote

For safety reasons, Deep Space Industries will limit itself to moving asteroids with diameters less than 30 meters in the vicinity of the Earth.

Quote

Asteroids come in three main types: carbonaceous, metallic, and stony.  DSI will harvest the water-rich carbonaceous NEAs to produce water for in-space life support, radiation shielding and propellant.

Quote

DSI will mine metallic asteroids for the steel and other alloys that can be made from them.  The company is developing a patent-pending Microgravity Foundry that can transform crushed metallic ore into precision metal parts using a handful of moving parts in a compact device.  Space outposts to conduct research and produce high-value products for Earth will be fabricated primarily in space from DSI mini-factories, at far less cost than launching them from the ground.

Source: Deep Space Industries

Notice something missing... they don't plan to mine stony asteroids. As these make up 17% of asteroids, the second most common type after carbonaceous, this is another big problem for your great idea (as if it didn't have enough already).

When it comes to working out who knows more about asteroid mining, the two companies that plan to do it or you I know which I'd choose.

Sorry danielost, but your claims are not backed up by facts.