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Jeanne lashes Florida


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#1    Scorpius

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 06:30 AM

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Jeanne, a dangerous Category 3 storm, has roared ashore just east of Stuart on Florida's east coast.

The fourth hurricane to hit Florida in six weeks, the center of Jeanne made landfall near the southern end of Hutchinson Island, according to the National Hurricane Center in its advisory around midnight.

The area is close to where hurricane Frances came ashore on September 5.

Jeanne, with sustained winds of 115 mph (185 kph), was expected to move across northern Florida on Sunday.

The storm was moving north of west with winds near 13 mph, and a gradual turn toward the northwest was expected in the next 24 hours.

A hurricane warning has been issued for most of the state's eastern coast, from Florida City north to St. Augustine. A hurricane watch extends north from St. Augustine to Altamaha Sound, Georgia in what is now becoming a familiar drill for Floridians.

Millions of Floridians evacuated their homes, but many residents chose to stay put. There were 4,000 people in shelters in Brevard County, less than the number present for Hurricane Frances, a spokesman for the emergency operations center said.

In the West Palm Beach area, there were shelter spots for 27,000 people, but only 11,000 had evacuated by mid-afternoon.

user posted imageView: Full Article | Source: CNN.com
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I already had this feeling it would strengthen before it hit Haiti.  It still will, and New York will feel it's effects.  whistling2.gif I also think another Hurricane has yet to come, which would make 6--Francis, Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Carl and ???.

Edited by Blue-Scorpion, 26 September 2004 - 06:45 AM.

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#2    Technito

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 07:14 AM

Hmm...That's not good. Is Florida cursed or something? Anyway, I heard there are three Hurricanes floating in the Atlantic. Hurricane's Lisa, Karl and Jeanne which you said already touched land.  Also yesterday I heard that Hurricane Ivan was fading and almost gone. But around in the north Atlantic all of a sudden it started to gain strength again. No word on how much strength or if it's even a danger to anyone again yet.


#3    Scorpius

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 07:55 AM

This is a CRAZY COINCIDENCE.  I was listening to George Noonery's Show, on Coast to Coast AM @ CJOB on the radio, 6 mins ago.  And this psychic, well ahead of me--I ain't no talented psychic--

BUT he also predicts a 6th hurricane to bombard the Gulf Coast Area.  He predicts it will enter the interior through New Orleans.   ph34r.gif  ohmy.gif  ph34r.gif He also predicts it will be called Hurricane M..., he believes it'll start with an M.

If he's right, I predict it's gonna be called Mary (other possibilities may be Monica or Moses but I'm leaning towards Mary)

Signs from God... whistling2.gif  wacko.gif

I've never heard of Lisa, did Lisa touchdown in the States?
So its Hurricanes Francis, Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa and then Mary
------

I finally looked up a site on Hurricanes
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hu...ner=accuweather[/URL]

Next Hurricane that Starts with an M, is gonna be called Matthew according to this Site.  My prediction is wrong--it wasn't a prediction, it was more of a guess. tongue.gif  I think I said that in the "spur of the moment" kinda thing.  whistling2.gif

Edited by Blue-Scorpion, 27 September 2004 - 07:13 AM.

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#4    AztecInca

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 08:51 AM

Those poor people, they have already been through so much, but to have to go through even more hurricanes is just so cruel, nature is just so powerful sometimes, it can cause so much destruction and death!
Lets hope that no more people are killed and that the hurricanes die down and fade away!


#5    Angelofmercy

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 01:01 PM

If there is a an "M" hurricane it will be called Matthew if it comes from the Atlantic to hit the Gulf or Madeliene if it comes from the Pacific.  

Check out:

http://www.accuweather.com

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#6    twpdyp

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 05:39 PM

My Dad and Mom live in central Florida, they have evacuated 3 times, they used Francis as a reason to come to Georgia and visit their newest grandson. I don't think they are leaving the state this time though.

As we go through this life reaching, striving, and straining for life's brass ring, has any of us ever stopped to wonder just who is running the Merry-Go-Round?
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#7    Erikl

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 07:55 PM

I have two words for you people - Global Warming.
Three months ago there was a tornado in Turkey wacko.gif
The harsh weather last summer in Europe.
And the summer two years ago.
And the floods in Europe this summer.

I'm telling you the whole weather is out of balance.

For example - it was snowing in Jerusalem this year in the end of March blink.gif

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#8    DC09

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 08:09 PM

QUOTE(Erikl @ Sep 26 2004, 02:55 PM)
I have two words for you people - Global Warming.

View Post



It might be responsible for some of that other stuff but not the hurricanes. As I've said before - When the climate warms hurricanes tend to less frequent and less intense.

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#9    Erikl

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 08:43 PM

Global warming doesn't neccessairy means warmer cliamte.
The warming of the planet can cause many rare weather phenomanons to become more frequent.
For example, it has been proven that becuase of the global warming, the NAD (North Atlantic Drift - a stream that takes warm tropical water from the Mexico gulf up to Western Europe, causing the weather there to be warmer than it should. If it'll stop, the average temperature in Europe would drop in 5 degrees, causing most northern Europe to become as cold as the Siberian Tundra) is now slowing down, and is expected to stop in about 20 years.
This, as I said, will not cause the weather to become warmer, but on the opposite - it will return Europe to the ice age.

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#10    DC09

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 08:59 PM

QUOTE(Erikl @ Sep 26 2004, 03:43 PM)
Global warming doesn't neccessairy means warmer cliamte.

View Post



Yes, I realize this.
I still don't think global warming is responsible for the hurricanes though. There are high and low periods of hurricane activity. We're just in an active phase right now.

But the earth is experiencing cooler then normal temperatures at the moment. The average global temperature for August 2004 was about 0.07°C (about 0.13°F) cooler than the twenty-year average for 1979-1998. This is the second coolest summer in the 26-years of satellite records. The coolest was in 1992 due to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo that caused global shading.

*shrug* Who knows?

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#11    Erikl

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 09:01 PM

Frances, Ivan part of record-setting period for storms

BY SETH BORENSTEIN

Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON - (KRT) - Soon-to-strike Ivan is the latest and nastiest of a trio of monster hurricanes toying with Florida and the rest of the United States, showing Americans what hurricane experts have known for the last several years: We're in the midst of a record-breaking decade of hurricane activity.

And it's likely to get worse, some experts predict, in the Atlantic hurricane season in which Sept. 10 is the midpoint.

The number of U.S. deaths from Charley and Frances is around 45, based on unofficial reports. That's already the highest yearly U.S. hurricane death toll since 1999. If Ivan and whatever follows kill only half as many people as the two earlier storms, 2004 will go down as the deadliest U.S. storm season in more than three decades.

"We've been very lucky until this year," said William Gray of Colorado State University in Fort Collins, the scientist who pioneered hurricane-season forecasting.

The past nine years, from 1995 through 2003, marked the busiest, most intense nine-year storm period on record, based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane season index. The number takes into account how many storms develop, how strong their winds are and how long they last.

The so-called Accumulated Cyclone Energy index for the past nine years has averaged 139.6. That's about 50 percent higher than the 54-year average of 93.2 from 1950 through 2003. The increase comes despite low indexes for 1997 and 2002, both unusually mild years due to strong El Nino weather events that suppressed storm activity.

That means we're experiencing more storms that are bigger and nastier.

Since 1995, there's been an average of 13.3 named storms, 7.7 hurricanes and 3.6 major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph) each year. That's about 50 percent higher than the 118-year average of 8.6 named storms, 5.1 hurricanes and two major hurricanes a year.

"1995 through now, apart from the El Nino years, is more active than anything in records," said Hugh Willoughby, a senior scientist at the International Hurricane Research Center in Miami, as he packed his computer in plastic to protect it from Hurricane Frances. "It looks like there's a trend of increasing hurricanes."

This year is shaping up to be one of the worst.

As of Thursday, this season had nine named storms, five of which became hurricanes and four of which (Alex, Charley, Frances and now Ivan) are major hurricanes.

August set records for the number of named storms (8) and number of major hurricanes (3) and tied for second with the number of hurricanes (4), and had the second-highest overall storm activity, Gray said.

Gray admitted that the busy August, which has spilled into a nasty September, took him somewhat by surprise even though he thought this would be a big storm year. Last week he revised his forecast for even more storms this year, to a total of 16 named storms (up to Paula), eight hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

The good news is that the beginning of an El Nino weather event in the equatorial Pacific should make October a quieter month than normal, Gray said.

But right now all the conditions are ripe for bigger and more frequent hurricanes, said Roger Pielke Sr., an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State.

Key ingredients for forming hurricanes are atmospheric disturbances - rainstorms that often chug off Africa's Cape Verde and grow as they move west over the Atlantic - and the lack of upper-level winds that cut off storm tops, Pielke said. Those conditions are still favorable for more storms.

A major factor that allows hurricanes to grow bigger and stronger - such as Frances - is warm water.

"The Atlantic is a degree warmer than average this year. That may be a part of what's causing what's going on," said Willoughby, who used to direct the federal government's Hurricane Research Division.

And one weather condition that steers hurricanes - the Bermuda high-pressure ridge - is in a position that will direct storms into the U.S. mainland, not away as it has in past years, Pielke said.

That's a change for Florida. Even though the last nine years have been very active, Florida has been unusually lucky and spared major hurricanes recently, Gray said. Between 1926 and 1960, 13 major hurricanes hit Florida in 35 years, but since then there have been only three: Betsy in 1965, Andrew in 1992 and Charley in 2004. Frances weakened from a major hurricane to a smaller one before hitting Florida this month.

Just why the season has been so busy lately is widely debated. Most experts say it's part of natural cycles, but the future effects of global warming are another factor to be considered.

Hurricanes go through multi-decade cycles of many storms and few storms, Gray said. In the 1950s and 1960s, there were a lot of storms, then few from 1970 to 1994. Gray theorizes that it's based on changes of temperature and salinity in the ocean on a massive scale that then changes atmospheric conditions. All those conditions are just perfect for more storms right now, he said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has computer models that predict that as the world warms, hurricanes will get stronger, but the models are geared more toward the future.

Willoughby sees what's happening as a part of a normal cycle that could be juiced by warmer water.

While trends tend to be long term, sometimes conditions change abruptly and few storms form, Pielke said.

SOURCE


QUOTE
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has computer models that predict that as the world warms, hurricanes will get stronger …


QUOTE
‘The Atlantic is a degree warmer than average this year. That may be a part of what's causing what's going on,’ said Willoughby, who used to direct the federal government's Hurricane Research Division.


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#12    DC09

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 09:12 PM

QUOTE
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has computer models that predict that as the world warms, hurricanes will get stronger …


The Atlantic is a degree warmer than average this year. That may be a part of what's causing what's going on,’ said Willoughby, who used to direct the federal government's Hurricane Research Division.



Yeah, scientists have differing opinions of course.

user posted image

Figure 1, obtained from data provided by the National Hurricane Center, shows hurricane strikes (landfalls) by decade in the U.S. since 1900. The 1940s were rather busy, the 70s the quietest, and the 1990s pretty close to the long-term average. A simple linear fit suggests a decrease over time. This is a result echoed by Easterling, et al (2000), who said, "the number of intense and landfalling Atlantic hurricanes has declined." In the Gulf of Mexico there is "no sign of an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity," according to Bove, et al (1998). For the North Atlantic as a whole, according to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, "Reliable data … since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased."

Granted, there has been an upswing in the Atlantic since 1995, and this year's bumper crop of storms has struck Florida in numbers and intensities seldom occurring before. A sign of things to come, especially in a warmer world? Not according to Bill Gray's Tropical Forecast group at Colorado State University. Gray, who has developed successful methods for predicting hurricane activity, said, "Various groups and individuals have suggested that the recent large upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity (since 1995) may be in some way related to the effects of increased man-made greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). There is no reasonable scientific way that such an interpretation of this recent upward shift in Atlantic hurricane activity can be made."

And there is no reason to expect increases in hurricanes due to greenhouse warming. Climate models, for all their problems, are unanimous in at least one respect: they predict that most of the future warming will be in high latitudes, in the polar regions. This will reduce the north-south temperature gradient and make poleward transfer of heat less vigorous -- a task in which tropical storms play a major role. All other things being equal, a warmer world should have fewer, not more, hurricanes.

Link

Many factors

Global warming has recently been at the forefront of media attention and the likely rise in global temperatures has often been linked with the increasing frequency and ferocity of worldwide storms.

It could be said that a rise in sea surface temperatures will surely increase the area where these storms can form, therefore it is likely to increase the frequency of such hazards.

However, there are many areas which currently have sea temperatures of over 26C but which do not spawn hurricane development.

There are in fact so many other factors which influence the development of hurricanes - the influence of El Nino, seasonal Saharan rainfall and wind shear to name but a few - that it is very difficult to pinpoint any effect that global warming might have.

What we do know is that for a hurricane to form, several conditions must be fulfilled:

Sea surface temperatures greater than 26C

Rapidly cooling air above

A sufficient spin from the rotating Earth.
A hurricane's strength is measured on a scale of 1 to 5. Five is the strongest wind strength around the eye.

It is defined as a large rotating storm centred on an area of very low pressure, with wind speeds in excess of 119km/h (74mph).

A look back into the history books shows that the number of category 5 storms in the Atlantic Ocean has not increased in recent years.

Full Article

Edited by Kellalor, 26 September 2004 - 09:13 PM.


#13    Lottie

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 11:28 PM

And now another hurricane is in the Atlantic...Lisa. I found this on a weather site. It doesn't say anything else about that hurricane yet.

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#14    Talon

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Posted 27 September 2004 - 02:10 AM

Florida assesses hurricane damage

Emergency crews in Florida are assessing the damage caused by Hurricane Jeanne, the fourth major storm to hit the US state in six weeks.
Parts of the state's central Atlantic coast were devastated after Jeanne made landfall on Saturday night with 120mph (160km/h) gusts.

The storm tore off roofs, leaving some two million people without electricity and streets knee-deep in water.

So far, up to six people have been reported killed.

The victims included a 15-year-old boy in Clay County, south of Jacksonville, who died after a tree fell on him, the Associated Press reported.

Jeanne was downgraded later on Sunday to a tropical storm as it moved north-west.

Earlier, Jeanne battered the Bahamas with violent winds, sending hundreds of people fleeing to emergency shelters.

Jeanne's destructive power was already clear from the devastation in Haiti, where more than 1,500 were killed in flooding and landslides.

There is still a month of the hurricane season left.

'Life and death'

The hurricane, a dangerous category three storm, came ashore near Stuart, Fort Pierce and Vero Beach on Florida's east coast - the same region battered by Hurricane Frances three weeks ago.

Florida's Governor Jeb Bush said the hardest-hit areas were Martin, Indian River and St Lucie counties on the state's central Atlantic coast.

However, the governor added that "just about everybody's been impacted by the storm in one way or the other".

As the wind and rain died down, emergency teams began assessing the damage and searching for potential victims of the storm.

"Today, the focus is on life and death. We need to get in there and find out what the situation is as soon as we can," Florida emergency co-cordinator Mike DeLorenzo was quoted as saying by Reuters.

In Stuart, a few houses and businesses have been badly damaged, but Jeanne seems to have spared the town the devastation of previous storms, the BBC's Daniel Lak reports from the town.

At midnight GMT the storm was centred about 10 miles (15km) south of the town of Bronson, the US National Hurricane Center reported.

Jeanne is now slowly weakening as it moves over central Florida and is expected to head into southern Georgia during Monday.

Stunned disbelief

It is too early to assess the damage, but the cumulative effect of Florida's four hurricanes will be immense, our correspondent says.

Insurance claims were already expected to be in excess of $20bn, without factoring in the damage from Jeanne.

The hurricanes have so far caused at least 70 deaths in Florida.

State authorities said more than 31,000 people had taken to shelters before the storm crashed ashore, many of them people whose homes had been damaged by Frances.


No other state has been hit by four hurricanes in the same season since Texas more than a century ago.

Florida resident George Robertson-Burnett told BBC News Online: "There is a stunned sort of disbelief that this can be happening.

"Never in living memory... has there been a sequence of hurricanes to match what is now happening."

user posted image

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3692310.stm


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#15    DC09

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Posted 27 September 2004 - 02:11 AM

There are hurricanes out in the ocean all the time that never make landfall. Let's hope this one doesn't.

I wonder if Florida's cursed or something...

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