Posted 03 December 2012 - 03:30 PM
You're right about that piece of string, and I've never been very good at predicting the future. There are a lot of variables that could affect the pace of discovery. How clear is the evidence? Dr. Grotzinger's quick 'one for the history books' reaction seems to suggest something really striking, while the subsequent disclaimers by others in NASA make it seem rather less so. Did Dr. Grotzinger get carried away by his enthusiasm, or are the other NASA people being more cautious than necessary? We won't even to begin to have a sense of this for a couple of hours, yet.
I do have a sense that if life on Mars, past or present, seems a solid possibility, the process of examining, and if possible, confirming this will be expedited as much as possible within the limits of scientific procedures. I hope that this will be a matter of a few months, but there is no real certainty of this.
On an immediate, practical note, I'm concerned about the availability of today's press briefing. I think it very likely that interest will be extraordinarily high. Will the website carrying it become congested, and begin to refuse new connections? Other sites will be carrying the presentation, too. I recall reading that the Huffington Post will do so. Other news sites would probably be worth checking, too, if either of the above become unavailable.