Are we freezing because of global warming?

[Still Waters]

As a blanket of snow settles across the country, train services grind to a halt and roads become impassable, you could be forgiven for thinking that global warming seems more remote than ever. But yesterday, the World Meteorological Organisation announced that 2010 is almost certain to rank among the three warmest years since records began in 1850 – and it has long been accepted that one of the effects of climate change could be an increase in the frequency of harsher, Continental-style winters.

So which is it? Is it the vagaries of the elements that we should be cursing through our chattering teeth, or the carbon emissions from Chinese smokestacks?

Read more...

[ships-cat]

.– and it has long been accepted that one of the effects of climate change could be an increase in the frequency of harsher, Continental-style winters...

I would challange that statement. I can't recall ANY of the Global Warming evangelists saying ANYTHING about "harsher winters" until comparatively recently when we had .. well.. some cold winters.

Does anyone recall the scene in the book "1984" wherein - at a war rally - the speakers suddenly change the name of the traditional enemy "EastAsia" in mid speech, and substitute it with their erstwhile ally "EurAsia" ? (whillst stating that they had "always" been at war with EurAsia, and no actuall change had occured). Well, thus it was with the Envirologians. We suddenly went from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change", and the seemingly contradictory idea of "Warming producing colder Winters" was introduced. At the same time, this was presented as being "consistent" with the previous dogma which.. curiously.. never hinted at colder winters in any of its predictions or computer models. Viva the eternal war against EurAsia... or did I mean Eastasia.. sorry Big Brother... got confused there... and how many fingers ARE you holding up ?

I might accept some credence in the idea of climate extremes if we where simultanously suffering warmer summers. However, if we are, then I can't say as I have noticed.

I might also give the World Meteorological Organisation's report more credence if it had bothered to highlight the fact that they have changed the way that they measured surface temperatures in some of the Oceans recently. And guess what ? The new method of gathering temperature data - once suitably interpreted by the Priesthood - resulted in higher recorded temperatures.

Gosh. What a suprise.

meow purr

[Guest]

The prospect of colder winters and even possibly the return of the ice sheets has always been talked of in relation to climate change. Its to do with the disruption of the deep ocean convey belt.

Have you also spotted that whilst we are having a cold snap, Isreal is in the throws of a very unusual 6 month drought which has led to forest fires. They are certainly not experiencing cooling.

Br Cornelius

[questionmark]

The prospect of colder winters and even possibly the return of the ice sheets has always been talked of in relation to climate change. Its to do with the disruption of the deep ocean convey belt.

Have you also spotted that whilst we are having a cold snap, Isreal is in the throws of a very unusual 6 month drought which has led to forest fires. They are certainly not experiencing cooling.

Br Cornelius

And that includes Greece and Turkey. We are having temperatures in the 80s here at 1200 feet altitude. 50s would be normal. The Apple trees think its spring and start blooming.

[questionmark]

I would challange that statement. I can't recall ANY of the Global Warming evangelists saying ANYTHING about "harsher winters" until comparatively recently when we had .. well.. some cold winters.

meow purr

Then you should read the Climate Prognosis made in 2007, while true that they missed by a few tenth of a degree (the average is actually higher), they sure got it better than Lord Monckton and his looney gang who claimed that the temperature had peaked in 2005... well...it did if we discount 2010...

[ninjadude]

I would challange that statement. I can't recall ANY of the Global Warming evangelists saying ANYTHING about "harsher winters" until comparatively recently when we had .. well.. some cold winters.

I pointed it out to you at least once here on UM. With a source. And many times to others.

[pickletoes]

I would challange that statement. I can't recall ANY of the Global Warming evangelists saying ANYTHING about "harsher winters" until comparatively recently when we had .. well.. some cold winters.

Does anyone recall the scene in the book "1984" wherein - at a war rally - the speakers suddenly change the name of the traditional enemy "EastAsia" in mid speech, and substitute it with their erstwhile ally "EurAsia" ? (whillst stating that they had "always" been at war with EurAsia, and no actuall change had occured). Well, thus it was with the Envirologians. We suddenly went from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change", and the seemingly contradictory idea of "Warming producing colder Winters" was introduced. At the same time, this was presented as being "consistent" with the previous dogma which.. curiously.. never hinted at colder winters in any of its predictions or computer models. Viva the eternal war against EurAsia... or did I mean Eastasia.. sorry Big Brother... got confused there... and how many fingers ARE you holding up ?

I might accept some credence in the idea of climate extremes if we where simultanously suffering warmer summers. However, if we are, then I can't say as I have noticed.

I might also give the World Meteorological Organisation's report more credence if it had bothered to highlight the fact that they have changed the way that they measured surface temperatures in some of the Oceans recently. And guess what ? The new method of gathering temperature data - once suitably interpreted by the Priesthood - resulted in higher recorded temperatures.

Gosh. What a suprise.

meow purr

Not sure where you've been getting your information but as a kid from the 80s I can tell you I remember when "aquanet" was pretty much rendered obsolete because of the effect it was having on the hole in the ozone. Even then the prediction I seem to recall was that the hole would allow in more heat which would then create extreme weather due to the heating of the ocean. I don't know too much about the details on the Climate Change crowd, but I think you are wrong to suggest they've changed direction mid sentence. I've always known it to be extreme weather. So very many Jehovah's Witnesses pointed it out to me as a sign of the end times as well.

[27vet]

The world is moving from a glacial to interglacial period. It is going to warm up whether we like it or not. The global warming/climate change proponents are trying to make money out of this.

Look at The Paleomar Project by C R Scotese

[Leah G.]

What's going on? I try to get to the comments on the front page UFO Wiki leaks and it keeps redirecting me here???

[stevewinn]

Lets just say whatever the weather conditions its down to global warming/climate change. If its not one thing its another. there is always something to worry about in this world of worry.

[Guest]

Lets just say whatever the weather conditions its down to global warming/climate change. If its not one thing its another. there is always something to worry about in this world of worry.

Your not concerned then about the increasingly erratic weather and its escalating cost to the country - or haven't you noticed.

Exposure to large losses due to weather hazards are of major concern to the insurance industry. Much of this anxiety relates to events outside the UK, but there is also concern that claims for subsidence, gale and flood damage in the UK are rising. The potential role of global warming to increase the risk of damaging events is well understood by the insurance industry.

http://www.ecn.ac.uk/iccuk/indicators/12.htm

This shows a generally upward trend for UK insurance claims related to sever weather.

How about;

In the 3 months November to January, Insurance companies have paid out more money (EUR500 million), in weather related property insurance claims, than they did in the previous 10 years combined (EUR378 million).

Property Insurance premiums are expected to rise by over 25% this year alone.

http://www.gdd.ie/slider/recent-weather-related-insurance-claims-top-eur500-million/

The numbers speak louder than words.

Br Cornelius

[ninjadude]

The world is moving from a glacial to interglacial period. It is going to warm up whether we like it or not.

That's true. But human activity is making it warm more and faster than normal.

[stevewinn]

Your not concerned then about the increasingly erratic weather and its escalating cost to the country - or haven't you noticed.

You are correct, am not concerned by 'erratic weather' because its been like that all my life. so to me there is nothing erratic about it. - shock horror that in the summer we might have a heat wave for all of two weeks. shock horror we are officially in the winter season and we are having ice and snow. please tell me a time when we haven't had erratic weather? and i wouldn't even call it erratic, just the way of the world.

out of interest have you always been a bit of a worrier. I havent a clue how old you are, but if you was a teenager in the 70's and the "experts" and media were predicting a coming Ice Age, did you find time in the day to be concerned with that. if you did you'll notice you lived through it all and nothing happened. now you find yourself concerned yet again with something which will not happen.

[Guest]

You are correct, am not concerned by 'erratic weather' because its been like that all my life. so to me there is nothing erratic about it. - shock horror that in the summer we might have a heat wave for all of two weeks. shock horror we are officially in the winter season and we are having ice and snow. please tell me a time when we haven't had erratic weather? and i wouldn't even call it erratic, just the way of the world.

out of interest have you always been a bit of a worrier. I havent a clue how old you are, but if you was a teenager in the 70's and the "experts" and media were predicting a coming Ice Age, did you find time in the day to be concerned with that. if you did you'll notice you lived through it all and nothing happened. now you find yourself concerned yet again with something which will not happen.

That would be the two scientists who predicted an ice age. Now thats fringe science if ever there was any. You seem to be a true believer though.

Not interested in escalating insurance claims.

The problem I have is that I have a science based education and can judge risk probability. Its my burden.

Br Cornelius

Edited December 4, 2010 by Guest

[stevewinn]

That would be the two scientists who predicted an ice age. Now thats fringe science if ever there was any. You seem to be a true believer though.

Not interested in escalating insurance claims.

The problem I have is that I have a science based education and can judge risk probability. Its my burden.

Br Cornelius

maybe that science based education which you admit is a problem and a burden prevents you from looking from outside the box in. i now see why you struggle to comprehend the whole possibility of natural climate change. science is all about understanding and control. what you seek to understand you want to control and its no different with climate change.

[Guest]

maybe that science based education which you admit is a problem and a burden prevents you from looking from outside the box in. i now see why you struggle to comprehend the whole possibility of natural climate change. science is all about understanding and control. what you seek to understand you want to control and its no different with climate change.

No Steve I understand the mechanisms and their inevitable results. Until you have that understanding you are working from belief. Knowledge is never a bad thing - what you do with it is another matter. I am as skeptical as the next man about the things that are done to us as a society by our "betters" - but my understanding of the basic physics means that I cannot attribute this to a conspiracy.

Br Cornelius

[stevewinn]

No Steve I understand the mechanisms and their inevitable results. Until you have that understanding you are working from belief. Knowledge is never a bad thing - what you do with it is another matter. I am as skeptical as the next man about the things that are done to us as a society by our "betters" - but my understanding of the basic physics means that I cannot attribute this to a conspiracy.

Br Cornelius

mate you have good intentions, but the figures and records for man made climate change don't add up. don't be part of the swindle.

[Guest]

mate you have good intentions, but the figures and records for man made climate change don't add up. don't be part of the swindle.

Your qualification to make that statement is what ?

Don't be part of the problem.

Br Cornelius

Edited December 4, 2010 by Guest

[ships-cat]

Your not concerned then about the increasingly erratic weather and its escalating cost to the country - or haven't you noticed.

http://www.ecn.ac.uk/iccuk/indicators/12.htm

This shows a generally upward trend for UK insurance claims related to sever weather.

No, not really. There are three graphs: subsidence, rainfall and overall claims. The time period covered (as little as 25 years in two cases) is too short for meaningfull comparison, and in anycase there are significant anomalies (such as the 1992 subsidence spike)which do NOT tie in with the theory of a temperature correlation.

How about;

http://www.gdd.ie/slider/recent-weather-related-insurance-claims-top-eur500-million/

The numbers speak louder than words.

Yup.. and they are saying "irrelevent". The figures for increased insurance claims are proof of nothing, as they do not indicate the volume of insurance. (e.g. if more people are taking up weather-related insurance, or if the number of houses has increased, then the number of claims would increase even if the climate remained static).

Even the first article points out that much of the increase in insurance claims can be allocated to flood damage, which in turn can be at least partically attributed to an increase in the practice of building houses on flood plains (something previously forbidden)

Sorry Br Cornelius; these figures do not support your position.

meow purr

[ships-cat]

The prospect of colder winters and even possibly the return of the ice sheets has always been talked of in relation to climate change.

The presentation of Global Warming - from the 1990's all the way up to the mid 2000's - has always focussed exclusively on WARMING, and never on climate instability, or climate extremes. It is only when temperatures appeared to stabalise after 1999 that the discusion of extremes came into play.

Have you also spotted that whilst we are having a cold snap, Isreal is in the throws of a very unusual 6 month drought which has led to forest fires. They are certainly not experiencing cooling.

Not that unusual. There have been eight such droughts in Israels history: this is not even the worse. The IMPACT of the droughts may be more severe, but that is because Israel has been expanding its population and building new settlements, without building new desalination plants or arrangeing for alternative sources of water.

meow purr

[Guest]

The first section is of particular interest;

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/extremeweathersequence_en.html

And from the most comprehensive database on extreme weather held by the the insurance industry;

“Our database clearly indicates a sharp rise in the number of weather-related natural catastrophes per year, in terms of overall and insured losses. For instance, there has been a threefold increase in floods since 1980. There has also been a rise in the number of windstorm losses, Atlantic hurricanes being particularly destructive.”

http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/company_news/2010/2010-08-05_company_news.aspx

Br Cornelius

[ninjadude]

The presentation of Global Warming - from the 1990's all the way up to the mid 2000's - has always focussed exclusively on WARMING, and never on climate instability, or climate extremes. It is only when temperatures appeared to stabalise after 1999 that the discusion of extremes came into play.

Not at all. The GLOBAL climate is warming. That does not eliminate areas that will be colder. Some of this view of you and others seems to be maybe myopic. The weather is ok in my little part of the world and within my limited lifespan so what do I care about other more populated parts of the world (they're backward anyway, right?) getting warmer and what do I care about the future peoples of the world (They can fix the problem).

[Agent X]

The irony of this is the coldest part of the night is always just before the dawn.

Think about it.

[ninjadude]

The irony of this is the coldest part of the night is always just before the dawn.

Except when it's not.

[danielost]

this just on the weather channel tonight 26 degrees. manitees are freezing to death.