79 replies to this topic

[MichaelW]

and then, on 11 April 2012 - 04:38 AM, said:

[/b]

I don't think Erdog has the cajones to take on Assad's chem/bio.  This is the reason Iran's possession of a nuke is so distressing.  Once protected by the bomb they will be able to make mischief in any way they choose.
Turkey has a well trained and powerful military but it is insufficient to stop a barrage of chem/bio scuds.

I'm surprised Assad didn't use them against the rebels. But he knows that the Turkish will be pissed at anything done near or within their territory.

[The New Richard Nixon]

Well we all know what happened after when Saddam Hussain used Chemical weapons..

[and then]

Erix, on 11 April 2012 - 11:33 AM, said:

Well we all know what happened after when Saddam Hussain used Chemical weapons..

I didn't say it would be rational    But Assad has been acting rationally so far ..... cruel in the extreme but still rational.  I'd worry more if he began to lose.  Like if Russia gave him up and NATO started bombing like in Libya. Or if Erdog actually did mount a large operation to seize a portion of northern Syria for the rebels to use as a sanctuary.  But I don't see that happening.

[Corp]

and then, on 11 April 2012 - 04:38 AM, said:

[/b]

I don't think Erdog has the cajones to take on Assad's chem/bio.  This is the reason Iran's possession of a nuke is so distressing.  Once protected by the bomb they will be able to make mischief in any way they choose.
Turkey has a well trained and powerful military but it is insufficient to stop a barrage of chem/bio scuds.

Right now it's only Turkey who seems to be seriously considering any military action. If Syria goes and using chemical and bio weapons not only would they lose any moral high ground, and thus any real support from Russia or China, but Turkey would then be justifed in bringing in NATO (though people around here would still howl about an American plot). Would likely also cause several members of the Arab League to jump in.

If Assad were to break out his big guns he'd be boned.

[MichaelW]

Corp, on 11 April 2012 - 04:27 PM, said:

Right now it's only Turkey who seems to be seriously considering any military action. If Syria goes and using chemical and bio weapons not only would they lose any moral high ground, and thus any real support from Russia or China, but Turkey would then be justifed in bringing in NATO (though people around here would still howl about an American plot). Would likely also cause several members of the Arab League to jump in.

If Assad were to break out his big guns he'd be boned.

He'd still be boned anyway. The Turkish are itching to get into Syria. Any further violence on their borders will most likely be interpereted as a threat and dealt with in the appropriate manner.

[and then]

MichaelW, on 11 April 2012 - 11:09 PM, said:

He'd still be boned anyway. The Turkish are itching to get into Syria. Any further violence on their borders will most likely be interpereted as a threat and dealt with in the appropriate manner.

I just don't understand how you make that assumption, MW.  Erdogan wants to be a player, sure.  But do you think he would risk Assad possibly using WMD?  As I said, Turkey has a professional, well supplied and armed force but that in itself could cause Assad to over react. Taking WMD off the table, it would be a slugfest for sure.  I have no idea what Syria's conventional capabilities are, I haven't researched them.  If Erdogan does make a play then he can call on NATO and the call would be answered.  How badly does Russia want to keep the base at Tartus?  And how froggy would they be in standing up to NATO in this instance?  Who knows.  But I'm sure Oby's brave band at State department are leaning on Erdogan pretty heavily not to cause trouble. JMO of course....

[MichaelW]

and then, on 11 April 2012 - 11:34 PM, said:

I just don't understand how you make that assumption, MW.  Erdogan wants to be a player, sure.  But do you think he would risk Assad possibly using WMD?  As I said, Turkey has a professional, well supplied and armed force but that in itself could cause Assad to over react. Taking WMD off the table, it would be a slugfest for sure.  I have no idea what Syria's conventional capabilities are, I haven't researched them.  If Erdogan does make a play then he can call on NATO and the call would be answered.  How badly does Russia want to keep the base at Tartus?  And how froggy would they be in standing up to NATO in this instance?  Who knows.  But I'm sure Oby's brave band at State department are leaning on Erdogan pretty heavily not to cause trouble. JMO of course....

Erdogan knows that Assad won't use WMD's (btw, source? Syria has Scud missiles but is there any confirmation that they actually are armed with anything more than high explosives) because of the political ramifications. He's already pushing the limits of what Turkey considers acceptable. The use of WMD's would turn global opinions to turn wholy in favour of some form of intervention or retribution, aside from those who aren't human.

[Black Red Devil]

MichaelW, on 11 April 2012 - 11:09 PM, said:

He'd still be boned anyway. The Turkish are itching to get into Syria. Any further violence on their borders will most likely be interpereted as a threat and dealt with in the appropriate manner.

Turkey has no interest whatsoever to invade Syria.  Why would they want to get involved in a conflict?

[Black Red Devil]

Corp, on 11 April 2012 - 04:27 PM, said:

Right now it's only Turkey who seems to be seriously considering any military action. If Syria goes and using chemical and bio weapons not only would they lose any moral high ground, and thus any real support from Russia or China, but Turkey would then be justifed in bringing in NATO (though people around here would still howl about an American plot). Would likely also cause several members of the Arab League to jump in.

If Assad were to break out his big guns he'd be boned.

Yeah, funny analogy between Syria and Libia.  Both run by oppressing murderous dictators, both times the locals asked for NATO intervention but here we are 1 year later, thousands of deaths and nothing.  In Libia they were already bombing the presidential palace before the locals even uttered the word HELP.

[and then]

MichaelW, on 12 April 2012 - 08:32 AM, said:

Erdogan knows that Assad won't use WMD's (btw, source? Syria has Scud missiles but is there any confirmation that they actually are armed with anything more than high explosives) because of the political ramifications. He's already pushing the limits of what Turkey considers acceptable. The use of WMD's would turn global opinions to turn wholy in favour of some form of intervention or retribution, aside from those who aren't human.

No, sorry, no specific source.  I read news regularly though and it is mentioned with frequency that Syria is known to have stockpiles of sarin and vx scattered about the country in storage facilities.  I've even read that they've shared some with Hizballah.  That one I find a little hard to believe though.  Considering the retaliation that would come their way if the hezzies used it on Israel.  I will try to find some sources though.
I believe Assad's regime is pretty nervous after what happened to Moammar.  If he sees the likelihood of losing due to Turkey providing a safe haven for the rebels he just might not care for what the international community would do....figuring he was screwed anyway...  Anyone who will kill thousands of his own citizens and alienate the world community in the process isn't wrapped too tight to begin with, IMO

I saw several but the sources looked sketchy.  Here's one that's pretty respected though.
http://thecable.fore..._on_syrian_wmds

edited to include source

Edited by and then, 14 April 2012 - 01:19 AM.

[MichaelW]

and then, on 14 April 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

No, sorry, no specific source.  I read news regularly though and it is mentioned with frequency that Syria is known to have stockpiles of sarin and vx scattered about the country in storage facilities.

That's what they said about Iraq. Found nothing. But you never know with Syria.

Quote

I've even read that they've shared some with Hizballah.  That one I find a little hard to believe though.

As do I. I wouldn't think that Assad would be that stupid.

Quote

I believe Assad's regime is pretty nervous after what happened to Moammar.  If he sees the likelihood of losing due to Turkey providing a safe haven for the rebels he just might not care for what the international community would do....figuring he was screwed anyway...  Anyone who will kill thousands of his own citizens and alienate the world community in the process isn't wrapped too tight to begin with, IMO

Meh. Here's hoping he suffers the same fate.

[MichaelW]

BlackRedLittleDevil, on 14 April 2012 - 12:35 AM, said:

Turkey has no interest whatsoever to invade Syria.  Why would they want to get involved in a conflict?

If they didn't want to get involved, why is there a thread stating that Turkey does want to get involved?

[Black Red Devil]

MichaelW, on 14 April 2012 - 04:14 AM, said:

If they didn't want to get involved, why is there a thread stating that Turkey does want to get involved?

From the article:

Quote

But despite raising the prospect of a    buffer zone within Syria in the past, Turkey would be reluctant to mount a    military operation to enforce one without the backing or participation of    the Arab League.  

[MichaelW]

BlackRedLittleDevil, on 14 April 2012 - 05:15 AM, said:

From the article:

So Turkey being reluctant to being involved = totally opposing any involvement in Syria. Right.

[and then]

MichaelW, on 14 April 2012 - 09:54 AM, said:

So Turkey being reluctant to being involved = totally opposing any involvement in Syria. Right.

I really think Erdogan would love to make his mark here and humble Assad.  Frankly, I think Erdogan is dreaming of being a modern Caliph    But He wouldn't involve his country in a war with no help from NATO.  Unless he was attacked first.   He is just saber rattling to keep his name in the press and on the lips of good Muslims everywhere
MW you have several times mentioned your extensive knowledge of armaments and capabilities of different countries so how does Syria stack up against Turkey?  I will accept your earlier premise that Syria has not been publicly proven to possess WMD.