odds are...

[Sunofone]

with the recent "suicide" of notable author gary webb that makes Four Bush biographers, Mark Lombardi, J.H. Hatfield, Danny Casalaro, and now Gary Webb--all "suicide" victims. What are the odds all of these people actually committing suicide?

Examining the male U.S.suicide rate for recent years

(http://www.suicidology.org/stats2001/1999datapage2.pdf), we can

extrapolate a conservative estimate of 17 male suicides per 100,000 people, or 0.017%. The odds of 4 specific, male biographers committing suicide would be the 4th power of 17/100000, or 8.3521 4.913 x 10^-17...roughly 1 chance 10,000,000,000,000,000. About as good a definition of impossible as you can get. A person would stand a better chance of playing the Canadian lottery 6/49 exactly twice in one's lifetime and winning ther grand jackpot BOTH TIMES! (That is, picking 6 numbers out of 49 possible numbers and matching all 6 numbers out of 6 random draws, on 2 separate occasions, and having only purchased two Canadian lottery tickets ever.) This calculation should be regarded as a conservative estimate: the actual odds against such a "coincidence" would be much greater. For example, if any of the biographers were female, the odds would be even greater.

***************

Obituary: Gary Webb, prize-winning investigative reporter

By Sam Stanton and Sandy Louey -- Bee Staff Writers

Published 2:15 am PST Sunday, December 12, 2004

Gary Webb, a prize-winning investigative journalist whose star-crossed career was capped with a controversial newspaper series linking the CIA to the crack cocaine epidemic in Los Angeles, died Friday of self-inflicted gunshot wounds, officials said.

Mr. Webb, 49, was found dead in his Carmichael home Friday morning of gunshot wounds to the head, the Sacramento County Coroner's Office said Saturday.

He left a note, but officials would not disclose its contents.

"I'm still in a state of shock," said Tom Dresslar, who works as a spokesman for California Attorney General Bill Lockyer and had known Mr. Webb for 15 years.

"He was a hard-core, no-fear investigative reporter," Dresslar said. "He wasn't afraid to stand up to whatever authority."

http://www.sacbee.com/content/news/story/1...-12630255c.html

Edited December 13, 2004 by Sunofone

[Frosty]

Odds Shmodds. what happened happened.

[Insight]

Or did it?

[BurnSide]

Well, i know i'd probably want to commit suicide after writing about the entire Bush life. God!

Seriously though, it certainly is weird..

[Sunofone]

Well, i know i'd probably want to commit suicide after writing about the entire Bush life. God!

Seriously though, it certainly is weird..

402393[/snapback]

lol cool avatar burnside!

[bathory]

did they release their bush biographies?

[girty1600]

That is very sad, Bush must be evil! It's like the Foster/Clinton suicide all over again only worse.

[Blood Angel]

did they release their bush biographies?

403226[/snapback]

Unless they have very good contacts from beyond the grave, i'd say no....

[bathory]

well they could have died after they released the books:P

[Sunofone]

Full Interview with Bush Biographer J.H. Hatfield Who Died 2 Years Ago of an Alleged Suicide Amidst Controversy Over his Book Fortunate Son

In the book Fortunate Son: George W. Bush and the Making of an American President author J.H. Hatfield charges that President Bush was arrested in 1972 for cocaine possession and that Bush’s father George Sr. used his political connections to have his son’s record expunged.

Soon after publication, Hatfield’s credibility was challenged. He had been convicted in 1988 for hiring a hit-man in a failed attempt to kill his boss and had served five years in prison.

J.H. Hatfield died of an alleged suicide in July 2001

Today we play an interview that we have held for over three years. It involves allegations of President Bush, drugs, obstruction of justice and corporate scandal. It raises questions about why Bush’s driver license number was changed.

TRANSCRIPT

AMY GOODMAN : Today we're going to play an interview that I did more than two and half years ago. But until today have never run. It involves President Bush, allegations of drugs, obstruction of justice, corporate scandal. The person I interviewed committed suicide two years ago.

This is how the story goes. Four years ago, St. Martin's press published a book by author James H. Hatfield called " Fortunate Son" it's about the life of George W. Bush. The book examines Bush's past, how he made his millions including from the Texas Rangers baseball team, building of the stadium, millions he made in dubious insider stock swaps to his connections to the BCCI scandal.

Hatfield also makes another charge, he says Bush was arrested in 1972 for cocaine possession. Why wasn't the future president charged, he asked. Hatfield writes that Bush's father, also the President, Bush, senior, used his political connection to have his son's record expunged. Soon after publication of “Fortunate Son”, Hatfield's credibility came under fierce attack. The "Dallas morning news" happened to suddenly receive information about Hatfield's criminal past. He had been convicted in 1988 of hiring a hitman and failed attempt to kill his boss and served five years in prison. The media jumped all over the story, Hatfield's reputation and credibility were ruined. St. Martin's press promised to turn "Fortunate Son" into quote, furnace fodder. It withdrew 70,000 copies of the book from bookshelves and destroyed them. The editor in chief of the St. Martin's Press resigned.

But a small publisher Soft Skull Press reprinted the book with the banner "the book they burned is back.” J. H. Hatfield had previously refused to release the information about Bush's alleged cocaine defense. It was none other he said than Karl Rove, Bush's closest political advisor. The media kept following the trail laid out for them, they diverted inquiries about Bush's drug history to stories about Hatfield's checkered past. He lost two other book contracts and faced financial ruin. The character assassination finally took its toll on July 20, 2001, J.H. Hatfield was found dead of an apparent suicide in Springdale, Arkansas. He was 43 years old. Police said he left notes for his family and friends that listed alcohol, financial problems, and the book "Fortunate Son" as the reasons for killing himself.

Well, today we're going to play the interview with James Hatfield. I started off by asking him why St. Martin's press pulled "Fortunate Son" from the shelves.

AMY GOODMAN: Well, why don't we start off with why they burned the book or pulled it from the shelves.

J. H. HATFIELD:Burn is very important because in this country you don’t burn books, publishers are supposed to publish books. The major controversy surrounding the book when it first came out was my past. The book came out on a Tuesday and by Friday it was recalled because they found out I had a criminal history and so the publisher said they doubted my credibility at that point which didn’t make any sense because before that they said it was meticulously fact-checked, scrupulously corroborated, 54 pages of source notes. So you can’t say that one day and then go ok maybe he had a past but one doesn’t have anything to do with the other.

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=03/08/11/1447218