43 replies to this topic

[Br Cornelius]

Karlis, on 03 November 2012 - 01:23 PM, said:

I'm posting facts as I find them. How one chooses to "interpret" is up to the individual person.

Edited to add that Christy is not my hero. Side-swipe ad hominem on your part?

The frequency with which you reference Christy would suggest otherwise

Some facts are more equal than others;

http://www.realclima...uses-confusion/

The main thrust is, that by performing bad analysis on very short time series data - you get junk.

Br Cornelius

[Br Cornelius]

As was pointed out Little Fish - that is not relevant to this discussion which is not about Global trends.

Br Cornelius

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 03 November 2012 - 01:40 PM, said:

As was pointed out Little Fish - that is not relevant to this discussion which is not about Global trends.

Br Cornelius

I give up.

[Br Cornelius]

http://www.google.co...kWz1xB2gLiLQk2w

Br Cornelius

[TheLastLazyGun]

It seems that almost everything to do with the weather these days is attributed by the loony Global Warming alarmists to "global warming".

There are a few more storms in the North Atlantic than there have been in the past?  It's global warming.

There are bushfires in the baking Australian desert?  That's obviously global warming.

There were a few floods around Britain last year?  That's global warming again.

Here is something for the Global Warming alarmists to ponder on:

Whilst there may be a few more storms than normal in the North Atlantic, the OPPOSITE is true elsewhere in the world.

In the decade 1990-2000, there were 59 Severe Tropical Cyclones recorded in the Australian region.

In the decade 2000-2010, there were 41 Severe Tropical Cyclones in the Australian region, a decrease of 18 storms in a ten year period.

From the beginning of 2010 to the beginning of 2013, there have been just 8 Severe Tropical Cyclones in the Australian region.  At that rate, there will be just 20-odd Severe Tropical Storms in the Australian region this decade.

Edited by TheLastLazyGun, 30 January 2013 - 07:30 PM.

[Br Cornelius]

TheLastLazyGun, on 30 January 2013 - 07:29 PM, said:

It seems that almost everything to do with the weather these days is attributed by the loony Global Warming alarmists to "global warming".

There are a few more storms in the North Atlantic than there have been in the past?  It's global warming.

There are bushfires in the baking Australian desert?  That's obviously global warming.

There were a few floods around Britain last year?  That's global warming again.

Here is something for the Global Warming alarmists to ponder on:

Whilst there may be a few more storms than normal in the North Atlantic, the OPPOSITE is true elsewhere in the world.

In the decade 1990-2000, there were 59 Severe Tropical Cyclones recorded in the Australian region.

In the decade 2000-2010, there were 41 Severe Tropical Cyclones in the Australian region, a decrease of 18 storms in a ten year period.

From the beginning of 2010 to the beginning of 2013, there have been just 8 Severe Tropical Cyclones in the Australian region.  At that rate, there will be just 20-odd Severe Tropical Storms in the Australian region this decade.

The only strongly supported climate variables which can be directly attributable to climate change are extreme precipitation events and regional droughts.
The other storm events which you referenced are not strongly correlated, but its very early in the global warming progression to draw any firm conclusions on this - a situation which is worse due to poor datasets on tropical storms.
There is evidenced that the North Atlantic has become stormier.

Britain has experienced one of its worst decades for flooding in the last 100years and the last two years have seen a significant spike. To deny this and be British takes some determination to deny the evidence of your senses.

None weather trends of significance;
-shrinking sea ice in the Arctic
-shrinking global glaciers

Sweeping diatribes such as yours are not very informative for anyone (least of all you). Specific data and trends and phenomena are the meat and drink of climate science and until you are prepared to get into detailed analysis of these aspects - its just more ill informed hot air from another denier.


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 30 January 2013 - 09:48 PM.

[TheLastLazyGun]

Br Cornelius, on 30 January 2013 - 09:30 PM, said:

The only strongly supported climate variables which can be directly attributable to climate change are extreme precipitation events and regional droughts.

And yet it doesn't stop you global warming alarmists going: "Hot weather?  Global warming!  Cold weather?  Global warming!  Dry weather and droughts?  Global warming!  Wet weather and floods?  Global warming!  A hurricane in the Atlantic during hurricane season?  Global warming!  Snow in winter?  Global warming!  Bushfires in the baking Australian outback at the height of summer?  Global warming!"

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There is evidenced that the North Atlantic has become stormier.

And there is evidence that other oceans have become less stormy.

Can you tell me how global warming can be causing more storms at this moment in time when, as shown elsewhere, global warming stopped in 1997?

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Britain has experienced one of its worst decades for flooding in the last 100years

Absolute poppycock.

The climate alarmists keep telling us that 2012 was the second-wettest year on record in Britain after 2000 (despite the Met Office confidently but wrongly predicting at the start of 2012 that Britain will suffer a severe drought throughout most of the year "due to climate change") yet they complete ignore the torrential downpours seen in 1912 when Cornwall and Norfolk received more than three times the average August rainfall and the night of August 25 saw more than 8in of rain fall on Norwich – over a quarter of the annual average. Parts of Norfolk were under water until spring.  They also conveniently ignored the extremely wet year of 1960 when in rained from Penzance to Fife every day of the month of July.

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-shrinking sea ice in the Arctic
-shrinking global glaciers

Edited by TheLastLazyGun, 31 January 2013 - 12:58 PM.

[Br Cornelius]

Climate change. Not all in the same direction - but different and specific to local conditions. Irelands West coast has seen a 100year upward trend in wetness coinciding with the anthropogenic global warming period. The East coast has seen little change in precipitation. Northern Europe has seen an increase in folooding events over the last 100years, southern Europe an increase in heat waves. All verifiable facts which you will find in the thread you referenced.
The Met office data which places last year as the second wettest in a hundred years is clear - they are not lying. What is significant is the magnitude of each precipitation event which has increased, causing more recorded flooding events - which is what has gone up significantly in the last decade.
There has been no stopping in climate change since 1997 unless you use an inapproriate test period to create a statistical artifact - ie by starting the period on the warmest year on record. Start a year either side of that data and the trend is strongly upwards. Start on that year and the trend is still there. Global warming never stopped.

You would deny the shrinking of the Arctic Ice cap and the general shrinking of Glaciers ?? Thats one which is impossible to refute with any credible evidence I am aware of. To even attempt to dispute such statements smacks of a level of denial I have seldom witnessed.

Br Cornelius

[Doug1o29]

TheLastLazyGun, on 31 January 2013 - 12:54 PM, said:

And yet it doesn't stop you global warming alarmists going: "Hot weather?  Global warming!  Cold weather?  Global warming!  Dry weather and droughts?  Global warming!  Wet weather and floods?  Global warming!  A hurricane in the Atlantic during hurricane season?  Global warming!  Snow in winter?  Global warming!  Bushfires in the baking Australian outback at the height of summer?  Global warming!"

First, you're talking about weather, not climate.  Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get.

Climate is about averages.  The average temperature, the average precip, the average barometric pressure.  When those change, climate is changing.  If there is no siginificant change in the 30-year average, there is no significant change in climate.  But what if there IS a significant change in the 30-year average?

Note that years with extreme temps usually have extreme temp deviations, as well.  It is, thus, possible to set hot and cold records in the same year (On November 11, 1911, Oklahoma City set the all-time high and all-time low for November 11th ON THE SAME DAY!  Variability (as expressed in standard deviations) is also a measure of climate change and can indicate change even when the average does not change.

The warmest summer in twenty years may be just a statistical fluke.  Does it recur?  Is it outside the confidence limits for the century?  For the model?  If the variability is changing, the climate could be changing.

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And there is evidence that other oceans have become less stormy.

What evidence?  A few years ago I tried to measure storminess.  It's not an easy thing to define.  Do you use precip?  Then, what about a dry thinderstorm?  Does it count?  I finally used barometric pressure, but even then, the limits were somewhat arbitrary.

If you are going to make claims, you should back them up with some evidence.  Do you have any?

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Can you tell me how global warming can be causing more storms at this moment in time when, as shown elsewhere, global warming stopped in 1997?

BS (Means Bold Script)!  Globally averaged mean temperatures have risen 0.11 degrees C. since 1997 (See the NCDC dataset I posted above.).  Your claim is a fairy tale.

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Absolute poppycock.

I haven't checked, but I'll bet Br. Cornelius can back that one up.  Br. Cornelius:  care to post a reference?  LLG:  care to post a reference?

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The climate alarmists keep telling us that 2012 was the second-wettest year on record in Britain after 2000 (despite the Met Office confidently but wrongly predicting at the start of 2012 that Britain will suffer a severe drought throughout most of the year "due to climate change") yet they complete ignore the torrential downpours seen in 1912 when Cornwall and Norfolk received more than three times the average August rainfall and the night of August 25 saw more than 8in of rain fall on Norwich – over a quarter of the annual average. Parts of Norfolk were under water until spring.  They also conveniently ignored the extremely wet year of 1960 when in rained from Penzance to Fife every day of the month of July.

Oklahoma only gets about 30 inches of rain a year, but you ought to be here the day we get it!

We have received as much as 13 inches in one day.  One torrential rainstorm means almost nothing, either to PDSI (because most of it just runs off), or to annual or decadal averages.  So, how do these extremely wet years compare with other years for TOTAL annual precip?  And how do they compare with other locatiosn in the British Isles?  The Met is talking about averages over whole years, over the whole country.  You're talking about something else, essentially, cherry-picking your data.  Try comparing apples to apples and lets see how the numbers work out.
Doug

[Br Cornelius]

Quote

The exceptionally wet year was characterised by a dry start which quickly gave way to very wet weather, with April and June both being the wettest on record.
Unsettled weather continued through to the end of the year, with December being the 8th wettest on record for the UK.
Throughout the year, accurate forecasts and warnings from the Met Office have helped everyone across the UK plan and prepare for the worst impacts of the extremely wet weather we have seen.
The persistent wet weather resulted in total 2012 rainfall for the UK of 1330.7 mm, which is just 6.6 mm short of the record set in 2000.
Looking at individual countries, 2012 was the wettest year on record for England, third wettest for Wales, 17th wettest for Scotland and 40th wettest for Northern Ireland.
This adds to a high frequency of wet years since 2000 in the UK - with four of the top five wettest years occurring since then.
......

We have always seen a great deal of variability in UK rainfall because our weather patterns are constantly changing. However, preliminary evidence suggests we are getting slightly more rain in total and it may be falling in more intense bursts.
Looking at annual rainfall for the UK, we can see the country as a whole getting wetter in recent decades.
Long-term averages of 30-year periods show an increase in annual rainfall of about 5% from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010

.........

Preliminary research from the Met Office also suggests we may have seen a change in the nature of the rain we get, with 'extreme' daily rainfall becoming more frequent.
An analysis of 1 in 100 day rainfall events since 1960 indicates these 'extreme' days of rainfall may have become more frequent over time.

http://www.metoffice...ther-statistics

There are certain things this data doesn't explicitly state but is worth pointing out;
- England has seen the most significant change towards wetter conditions
- The first half of the year was exceptionally dry, which makes the wetter half relatively more extreme.
-More of that rain fell as extreme precipitation events - which are more significant because they cause more flooding and flooding in places which have never been flooded before.

Just to illustrate how regional these trends can be;



http://news.bbc.co.u...000/8997816.stm

Meanwhile there are increasing droughts in the South East of England. i wonder why the average for the country doesn't show these dramatic trends ?

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 31 January 2013 - 06:23 PM.

[Frank Merton]

I sure would not want to own beach front property nowadays.

[Doug1o29]

Br Cornelius, on 31 January 2013 - 06:14 PM, said:

- England has seen the most significant change towards wetter conditions

Care to send some of that to us?  We're down 27 inches since July!
Doug

[Br Cornelius]

Quote

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.

http://link.springer...0584-012-0668-1

No trend in heat waves   - another dragon slayed !

Br Cornelius

[Br Cornelius]

Doug1o29, on 31 January 2013 - 06:57 PM, said:

Care to send some of that to us?  We're down 27 inches since July!
Doug

its been a very depressing three years of almost constant rain here with extreme storms happening on a regular basis. it would take an almost superhuman act of will to deny that we have it bad and have been having it relatively bad for about a decade now.

Br Cornelius

[Doug1o29]

Br Cornelius, on 31 January 2013 - 07:06 PM, said:

its been a very depressing three years of almost constant rain here with extreme storms happening on a regular basis. it would take an almost superhuman act of will to deny that we have it bad and have been having it relatively bad for about a decade now.

Br Cornelius

I used to live on the Olympic Peninsula.  270 consecutive days with no sunshine - and that was normal (Back in the 70s).  Be noice to have a little of it in Oklahoma.
Doug