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McCain Now Leading Obama

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#1    supercar


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Posted 29 July 2008 - 01:58 PM

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight. The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%. Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June. Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points -- so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.  Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.


#2    questionmark


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Posted 29 July 2008 - 07:40 PM

keithisco on Jul 29 2008, 10:38 PM, said:

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The only thing he has.... and it seem that Dubya V2.0's counselors don't have much more either.

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#3    AROCES


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Posted 29 July 2008 - 08:00 PM

These early polls really are irrelevant.
Anyone who has a lead of better than 4 points in majority of polls in the final 4 weeks of the election would be in a good position.
One note, NEWSWEEK polls always shows a Democrat leading, they probably poll the same people again and again.

Edited by AROCES, 29 July 2008 - 08:25 PM.

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