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Apophis May Strike Earth in 2068

asteroids apophis neo impact

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38 replies to this topic

#16    shrooma

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 06:25 PM

wanna know why the world ain't gonna end in 2068?
because zephram cochran won't launch the phoenix, meet with vulcans, and usher in a new, peaceful era for humanity if it does, and no-one wants that, right kids....?
:-)

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#17    shrooma

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 06:28 PM

freet, where the flimmin' 'ummer are you getting all these post-post smileys from, and can we all get 'em or what?!
:o

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#18    freetoroam

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 07:49 PM

View Postshrooma, on 02 March 2013 - 06:28 PM, said:

freet, where the flimmin' 'ummer are you getting all these post-post smileys from, and can we all get 'em or what?!
:o
If I tell you I will have to keeeeeel you.

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#19    Eldorado

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 09:30 PM

View PostWaspie_Dwarf, on 02 March 2013 - 11:47 AM, said:

Except that nothing is going to happen. With only a 1 in 2.3 million chance of it hitting (and it is highly likely that those odds will be reduced further still in the future) I don't think we can predict Armageddon just yet.

You never know, Waspie!  The chances of winning the UK Lottery are approx 1 in 14 million.  Has the jackpot ever been won?  Yes it has; numerous times.  :)


#20    Eldorado

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 09:43 PM

View PostAbramelin, on 02 March 2013 - 11:41 AM, said:

But I don't think i will be around to see it happen. or I would be 111 years old, lol.

The odds of you reaching 111yrs are also 1 in 14 million, Abe.  lol

(only joking)


#21    Waspie_Dwarf

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 09:47 PM

View PostEldorado, on 02 March 2013 - 09:30 PM, said:

You never know, Waspie!  The chances of winning the UK Lottery are approx 1 in 14 million.  Has the jackpot ever been won?  Yes it has; numerous times.  :)

Yes, it could be you...
but it almost certainly won't be.

You analogy is a poor one, millions of people play the lottery every week, there is only one Apophis.

How many winners of the lottery do you think there would be if they only sold one ticket and only made a couple of draws every few decades?

The Earth will be hit be a huge asteroid again one day, but it almost certainly won't be Apophis in 2068.

"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

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#22    Eldorado

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 09:50 PM

View PostWaspie_Dwarf, on 02 March 2013 - 09:47 PM, said:

Yes, it could be you...
but it almost certainly won't be.

You analogy is a poor one, millions of people play the lottery every week, there is only one Apophis.

How many winners of the lottery do you think there would be if they only sold one ticket and only made a couple of draws every few decades?

The Earth will be hit be a huge asteroid again one day, but it almost certainly won't be Apophis in 2068.



I should have known better than to try to raise a smile in this forum.  :(

Edited by Eldorado, 02 March 2013 - 10:13 PM.


#23    Waspie_Dwarf

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:14 PM

View PostEldorado, on 02 March 2013 - 09:50 PM, said:

The odds are still 1 in 14 million, whether only one person plays or not.  No matter how many draws.
So wrong that the word wrong doesn't begin to do it justice.

The odds for any individual ticket winning any given draw are 1 in 14 million. The more tickets that are sold the lower the odds that somebody will win the lottery. The more draws there are the higher the odds that someone will win the lottery.

View PostEldorado, on 02 March 2013 - 09:50 PM, said:

p.s. I should have known better than to try to raise a smile in this forum.  :(
When you post something amusing in this form then I will smile.

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#24    ali smack

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 12:25 AM

I am not bothered if it does hit the earth. I'll be 85 years old if i'm still alive. So don't really care TBH. We are talking about 55 years into the future, where most people now will be either dead or stupidly old.


#25    paperdyer

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 12:36 AM

Well, I'm sure I'll be long gone, but my grandkids and their kids will be around.  I hope we can find a way to nudge it a bit to a new course.  Of course we can always get SG1 to take care of it.  They've taken care of Apophis before! :yes:


#26    Rocketgirl

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 12:46 AM

If apophis were to hit earth, then maybe it will shake things up by giving earth a new start that is badly needed in my opinion. In 2068, I will be 71 so I think I would welcome death with open arms if I'm still alive then.

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#27    Hawkin

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 04:59 AM

View PostRocketgirl, on 03 March 2013 - 12:46 AM, said:

If apophis were to hit earth, then maybe it will shake things up by giving earth a new start that is badly needed in my opinion. In 2068, I will be 71 so I think I would welcome death with open arms if I'm still alive then.

Agreed. Currently 7 billion people and growing. That's a strain on the natural resources. Hate to say it but the herd needs thinned out.

It's good to have some skepticism so you won't be gullible & naïve. But to much skepticism can make you arrogant & egotistical.

#28    King Fluffs

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 08:17 AM

Hopefully it hits me. TT


#29    Frank Merton

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 09:13 AM

Simple risk management: multiply the odds by the consequences.  Since here the consequences are so bad it is worth spending money to make the odds even less, even though the odds seem small, lots of things are in that sort of probability range that do indeed happen.

I suspect at this point the people who do this stuff are already working hard at refining the details of the orbit.  The problem is that there are dozens of little factors that can change an orbit by small amounts that we can't be sure of.

The little problem of the fact that I will be long dead so why should I worry is an interesting one.  Let us say some super-being offered me a thousand years of life but at the end of it all humanity would be destroyed.  I doubt there are many who would accept such an offer.


#30    Purifier

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 10:04 AM

Well at least we don't have to worry much with this one. Now all we have worry about are the ones they haven't found yet.

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Also tagged with asteroids, apophis, neo, impact

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