Eastern Ukraine Ceasefire

[Varelse]

The ceasefire is about 20 minutes old as I start this thread and it seems the shelling is still going on. Are they totally ignoring it or are the rebels spending the last stocks they have on the ground?

In similar news, it appears Russia is accusing Ukrainian MP's of fooling the US by fabricating evidence of Russian troops in the current conflict that certain US warhawks used to get US weapons in the hands of Ukrainian forces.

http://rt.com/news/2...s-russian-army/

Edited February 14, 2015 by Varelse

[ellapenella]

So , what does this mean. That there can be a possibility of weapon arms occuring ? on both sides maybe ? Putin was anxiously rubbing the palms of his hands together lastnight like he was so looking forward to something ...the body language in that display just didn't seem like peaceful intentions .

ETA . about that body language I just watched the video in the link - was he so anxiously rubbing his palms like that because he thought he had something on the U.S ? -this all too weird.

Edited February 14, 2015 by Ellapennella

[ellapenella]

So Kiev's SBU are liars and Petro Poroshenko is a liar from what I ubnderstand . I think that everyone's a liar . And I think I'm losing my faith in people. So I suppose that everyone is suppose to believe that the U.S was unaware of this till now. o.K

[Mikolaj]

. I think that everyone's a liar .

Thats paradox. Since that statement makes you liar.

[+and-then]

I think Putin will only draw back once he has achieved at least his land bridge to Crimea and he may want even more now. He feels he has the measure of western leaders and he can do as he pleases. If we arm the Ukrainians he will double down because he truly believes we will not go all the way. This is the kind of opportunity for miscalculation that makes dealing with a nuclear power so dangerous. Now imagine Iran or her proxies pushing at Israel, raiding border towns or kidnapping soldiers or civilians. An Israeli leader would have no choice but to escalate - at what point does someone back down? If it happened today it would be a "mowing of the grass". The time after Iran is known to be a nuclear state... the whole world will be in turmoil and danger. One thing for certain, while Putin may still be rational, Islamist governments like Iran are lead by people who are NOT.

[ellapenella]

Thats paradox. Since that statement makes you liar.

forget you and your fake paradox . Everyone was meant as in globailst politicians . I think YOU should of known that's what it meant. But took a cheap shot at me. whatever.

Edited February 15, 2015 by Ellapennella

[MordorOrc]

In similar news, it appears Russia is accusing Ukrainian MP's of fooling the US by fabricating evidence of Russian troops in the current conflict that certain US warhawks used to get US weapons in the hands of Ukrainian forces.

Except that there is rather empirical evidence which shows that the rebels are being armed from sources across the Russian border. The difference is Russian government complicity.

There are two scenarios in this. The first is that the Russian government is lying when it says it isn't providing material support to the rebels in the form of weapons and armored vehicles. The second is that corruption in Russia is so pervasive that the military is willingly or unwillingly supplying the rebels with military equipment thanks to soldiers looking to make a quick buck.

Edited February 15, 2015 by MordorOrc

[stevewinn]

The moment the EU offered Ukraine that EU association agreement and NATO hinted at future membership - this whole thing was entirely predictable. - From the coup d'etat by the EU/US use of soft power in supporting the pro-EU opposition and supplying money for the "peaceful" protests to Russia invading Crime and destabilising the Western backed Ukrainian puppet government.

The lack of truth coming from both sides is expected but we worked it out on here ourselves. Remember when the EU lost the tug of war with Russia. - and Ukraine postponed the signing of the EU agreement. - It was at this stage the EU and US used their soft power. But we thought hang on minute, why is the EU and US moving so fast? there is another opportunity to sign the EU agreement in 2018, by 2018 Putin would no longer be in power, and by 2018 it looked like the Russian economy would've been in year three of a recession. It had me scratching my head thinking why cause this crisis? time is on the side of the EU/West OR was it?............

............Well as it transpires NO, - So why didn't they wait? well it came down to good old Geopolitics - We learned Russia was starting their own Union - the Eurasian Economic Union which came into effect on 1st January 2015. - and this is what the EU feared after years of spending billions of Euro's on Ukraine economy under the guise of the EU's Neighbouring country policy in anticipation of Ukraine eventually joining the European Union, - But wait, here at the eleventh hour they'd lost the Geopolitical tug of war with Russia - fearing they'd not only lost Ukraine to Russian influence but also to Russia's New Eurasian Union. The EU backed by the USA decided time was of the essence and they had to move or lose Ukraine forever so they decided to move.

Trouble is in this crisis the EU expansion policy in regard to Ukraine was miscalculated. The days of a weak Russia where over, but this wasn't recognised by the EU, their mindset was of a Russia still stuck in a post Soviet collapse. the EU's Ukrainian blueprint was outdated and where it worked and succeeded with the Baltic states ten years earlier it failed with Ukraine ten years later.

The EU with no mechanism to use hard power (military) had to reply solely on Soft power and the threat of hard power via the good old USA. Russia would be well aware of this - Russia could not only match the soft power of the EU, But also win such a battle, like we witnessed when they won the tug of war with the EU. Where the EU fails to have a direct mechanism for the use of hard power (military) - Russia doesn't - and hence we seen Russia send men and equipment across the border. Russian tactics should come as no surprise they've been practising for years for this type of warfare. They knew such tactics is not easily counted by NATO or the EU.

In this conflict Russia holds all the cards. ceasefires etc will be done on Russia's terms, they hold large areas of territory in Eastern Ukraine their not going to give these up easily. Crimea is lost, the Western powers know this and behind the scenes accept it. But we have to call into question who exactly are we backing in Ukraine? The EU is not whiter than white the ousted Ukrainian was backed by the EU until he turned gangster. the EU turned a blind eye to all the corruption as long as he was toeing the EU's line. He went from the EU's best friend who they wine and dined on many occasions to a despot corrupt leader literally in the EU's eyes overnight. and if people believe the EU knew nothing of the corruption then how naive,misguide and misjudged are they and highlights serious failings on the part of the EU.

Will the ceasefire hold? only if Russia wants it to, seeing how the aim of the game is to keep Ukraine destabilised. - So i'll say No.

[Helen of Annoy]

forget you and your fake paradox . Everyone was meant as in globailst politicians . I think YOU should of known that's what it meant. But took a cheap shot at me. whatever.

Yes, WE know what it means to generalize while our own country was facing an aggression.

This is why WE take it personally when it's generalized while Ukraine is facing an aggression.

Ukraine was attacked by imperialist Russia, with clear intent to renew not only USSR, but Russian Empire. This is not the time for preaching about lying qualities of politicians. Do they lie for living? Sure. Does it make Ukraine equal to Russia? No.

Does it make any attacked equal to the aggressor? No.

This is why WE didn’t like your - probably well intended but highly misunderstandable and unsupported by objective facts - statement of Poroshenko the liar. When the war is over and Ukraine is free from imperialist aggression, then it’s the time to criticize politicians and their lack of sainthood.

Right now, the best way to help, is to try not making it worse.

The ceasefire won't hold. By the way. Russia won't stop until they have the corridor or falls apart trying to get it, whichever comes first.

[ellapenella]

Excuse me - I read about the liars in the OP link provided so don't jump on me for it. I didn't just pull it out of the air or whatever . As for the Ukraine I've been informed for a while now nearly a year of what's going on there -I have a friend who's children are still there. Therefore I've been told much of what was happening before it was blasted on the news. The fear she lives with - especially when the communication is down for a while leaving he no way of knowing if they're alive or not. So do not accuse me of preaching -and don't preach to me either .

It was in the article news link that the OP provided in which I was replying too. You want to pick and choose -fine . It's not like I didn't display that my country too had to have known . But whatever .

[ellapenella]

Except that there is rather empirical evidence which shows that the rebels are being armed from sources across the Russian border. The difference is Russian government complicity.

There are two scenarios in this. The first is that the Russian government is lying when it says it isn't providing material support to the rebels in the form of weapons and armored vehicles. The second is that corruption in Russia is so pervasive that the military is willingly or unwillingly supplying the rebels with military equipment thanks to soldiers looking to make a quick buck.

I think this is one of the most important things to be watching . I hope that the CEASE FIRE holds and that there will be NO WAR. Being that he's a superpower . I think WE all need to PRAY for PEACE.

[Helen of Annoy]

Yeah, there are those people who can’t hear the artillery over the sound of tiny pro-Russian violins.

God give me patience, one of the things I lost 20 years ago, under the above mentioned artillery.

edit: 20+ years ago... years go by, but I still hear it.

Edited February 15, 2015 by Helen of Annoy

[Mikolaj]

Yeah, there are those people who can’t hear the artillery over the sound of tiny pro-Russian violins.

God give me patience, one of the things I lost 20 years ago, under the above mentioned artillery.

edit: 20+ years ago... years go by, but I still hear it.

But all of sudden from south America jungles Gotovina appeared.

[Mikolaj]

Yes, WE know what it means to generalize while our own country was facing an aggression.

This is why WE take it personally when it's generalized while Ukraine is facing an aggression.

Ukraine was attacked by imperialist Russia, with clear intent to renew not only USSR, but Russian Empire. This is not the time for preaching about lying qualities of politicians. Do they lie for living? Sure. Does it make Ukraine equal to Russia? No.

Does it make any attacked equal to the aggressor? No.

This is why WE didn’t like your - probably well intended but highly misunderstandable and unsupported by objective facts - statement of Poroshenko the liar. When the war is over and Ukraine is free from imperialist aggression, then it’s the time to criticize politicians and their lack of sainthood.

Right now, the best way to help, is to try not making it worse.

The ceasefire won't hold. By the way. Russia won't stop until they have the corridor or falls apart trying to get it, whichever comes first.

And the crowd goes

Edited February 15, 2015 by Mikolaj

[+Hammerclaw]

If all Ukraine is going to do is fight defensively, they'll lose one defensive position after the other until the entire east is annexed. Ceasefires promoted by a government of liars mean nothing. It gives the Russians time to plan, organize, regroup and resupply, that's all. Ukraine needs to find the wherewithal to go on a sustained offensive and turn this conflict on it's head. Otherwise, without the direct intervention of NATO and/or the EU, it's not a question of if, but when they become a much smaller country. They could certainly use the Generalship of someone like a Gotovina.

Edited February 15, 2015 by Hammerclaw

[+and-then]

The only possible positive I can see from this tragedy and crime Russia is perpetrating is that IF Ukraine can make it expensive and bloody enough, maybe the little megalomaniac will be given some pause before he storms into another neighbor. One thing seems certain - Ukraine is alone and NATO is shown for what it has become. It will not surprise me if Putin did not attack a NATO member now just to prove his point. The world needs to stop him now before he gets any grander ambitions. It's an interesting situation. How do you deal with someone who has control of a nuke arsenal and who seems ready to use them? If you allow him to bluster and take what he wants, history has proven it will only whet his appetite and a stand will be made from a much worse position in time. Add to his ambition the ABSOLUTE useless and weak "leadership" of the US at this point in history and it makes for a sickening situation.

[stevewinn]

The only possible positive I can see from this tragedy and crime Russia is perpetrating is that IF Ukraine can make it expensive and bloody enough, maybe the little megalomaniac will be given some pause before he storms into another neighbor. One thing seems certain - Ukraine is alone and NATO is shown for what it has become. It will not surprise me if Putin did not attack a NATO member now just to prove his point. The world needs to stop him now before he gets any grander ambitions. It's an interesting situation. How do you deal with someone who has control of a nuke arsenal and who seems ready to use them? If you allow him to bluster and take what he wants, history has proven it will only whet his appetite and a stand will be made from a much worse position in time. Add to his ambition the ABSOLUTE useless and weak "leadership" of the US at this point in history and it makes for a sickening situation.

As we expected and witnessed Ukraine and its military has no chance of beating the rebels in the east, Not when they are backed by Russia. Its well known Russia ARE the best chess players in the world when it comes to geopolitics especially with former satellite states. Russia will already have the next moves planned. - The West are not masters of policy - and are continually being caught on the hop and they don't like it. But as we see there is nothing we can really do. Russia is a Global power and capable and no push over like Saddam's Iraq or the Failed state of Afghanistan. Russia doesn't dance to the tune of the West.

Has for NATO and NATO's role the organisation is a defence - deterrence organisation. This crisis in Ukraine caused by an EU expansion policy should have been taken up by the toothless tiger known as the United Nations.

You say the world has to stop Putin, What exactly has Putin done differently to the USA? and their actions in Iraq? Syria? Libya? the USA has moved in its National Interest and Russia is moving in its National interest.

When it comes to the Ukrainian crisis we have to move away from the notion Putin is a mad man on the path of self-destruction as peddled by the media. he's as sane as any world leader we can do business with. - We're all learning a valuable lesson in History here. When you venture forth with your own national interests - at some point in time you will come up against another country whose got their own national interest and when this happens you get what we see in Ukraine.

As for Obama what do you expect him to do or the US military to do is beyond me - the truth is Russia has dense air defences. these already cover the Baltic states who are members of NATO and cover an area 200 miles from the Russian border spanning over Europe. - For starters it would be a nightmare trying to eliminate these defences - Anyone attacking would lose a considerable number of fighter/bombers for little reward. If you read the report by the British Government which contains statements from NATO commanders its clear even with the mighty USA we wouldn't be able to gain air supremacy in the skies covered by Russia's air-defences.

Its time to face facts. Russia on its own turf can and would beat the combined efforts of NATO. NATO's military is in a sorry state of affairs after years and years of budget cuts. It shows you how powerful Russia is when you have to create a 28 member Defence organisation to keep one country Russia in Check.

Anyone on here who believes NATO could win a conflict against Russia, in Russia's own backyard is in fantasy land and i think this is where the misjudgement comes from when they call the Western response weak. - By all means pick a fight with Russia but expect to get more than a punch in the nose and prepare to lose. Russia carries out military exercises with tactical nuclear weapons in a warfare scenario. (not to be confused by Strategic nuclear weapons)

Russia is no Nazi Germany or those of annexation. its more like 1914 than it is 1939.

Edited February 16, 2015 by stevewinn

[kartikg]

As we expected and witnessed Ukraine and its military has no chance of beating the rebels in the east, Not when they are backed by Russia. Its well known Russia ARE the best chess players in the world when it comes to geopolitics especially with former satellite states. Russia will already have the next moves planned. - The West are not masters of policy - and are continually being caught on the hop and they don't like it. But as we see there is nothing we can really do. Russia is a Global power and capable and no push over like Saddam's Iraq or the Failed state of Afghanistan. Russia doesn't dance to the tune of the West.

Has for NATO and NATO's role the organisation is a defence - deterrence organisation. This crisis in Ukraine caused by an EU expansion policy should have been taken up by the toothless tiger known as the United Nations.

You say the world has to stop Putin, What exactly has Putin done differently to the USA? and their actions in Iraq? Syria? Libya? the USA has moved in its National Interest and Russia is moving in its National interest.

When it comes to the Ukrainian crisis we have to move away from the notion Putin is a mad man on the path of self-destruction as peddled by the media. he's as sane as any world leader we can do business with. - We're all learning a valuable lesson in History here. When you venture forth with your own national interests - at some point in time you will come up against another country whose got their own national interest and when this happens you get what we see in Ukraine.

As for Obama what do you expect him to do or the US military to do is beyond me - the truth is Russia has dense air defences. these already cover the Baltic states who are members of NATO and cover an area 200 miles from the Russian border spanning over Europe. - For starters it would be a nightmare trying to eliminate these defences - Anyone attacking would lose a considerable number of fighter/bombers for little reward. If you read the report by the British Government which contains statements from NATO commanders its clear even with the mighty USA we wouldn't be able to gain air supremacy in the skies covered by Russia's air-defences.

Its time to face facts. Russia on its own turf can and would beat the combined efforts of NATO. NATO's military is in a sorry state of affairs after years and years of budget cuts. It shows you how powerful Russia is when you have to create a 28 member Defence organisation to keep one country Russia in Check.

Anyone on here who believes NATO could win a conflict against Russia, in Russia's own backyard is in fantasy land and i think this is where the misjudgement comes from when they call the Western response weak. - By all means pick a fight with Russia but expect to get more than a punch in the nose and prepare to lose. Russia carries out military exercises with tactical nuclear weapons in a warfare scenario. (not to be confused by Strategic nuclear weapons)

Russia is no Nazi Germany or those of annexation. its more like 1914 than it is 1939.

Very sensible post. The point of national interest is the best point made.

[+Hammerclaw]

It's a dirty little family squabble the West would have been well advised to stay out of. All the West has accomplished is completely misunderstanding Russia and Russians to the point of mutual alienation and deep distrust. http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-american-education-of-vladimir-putin/ar-BBhDvuA?ocid=U147DHP

Edited February 16, 2015 by Hammerclaw

[Helen of Annoy]

Will the defeatists kindly stop with their chess master idiocy?

The symbol of opposition to Putin is a Russian chess master

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garry_Kasparov

You must know more than people who are supposed to believe in your propaganda, not less. If you know less, then your propaganda attempts will have the opposite effect. You don't have to be a chess master to understand that.

And the isolationists, well, I’m so sorry, but you can’t stay out of it for long.

Either today, under your own terms, either tomorrow, under theirs, but you will be in.

[+Hammerclaw]

In the end, faced with no other option, Ukraine will cave and agree to Russia's essential demands. In return they will be rewarded with a symbolic sovereignty over all Ukraine, since their apparent independence from Russian Hegemony was nothing more than a polite fiction, anyway. Poroshenko and Putin will make nice to one another publicly and enthusiastically, while the one weeps behind his mask of joy and the other preens himself openly and gloats privately. The US and the EU will be left twisting in the wind, frozen in the act of making their disingenuous War of Words over a conflict that resolved itself without them..

[+and-then]

In the end, faced with no other option, Ukraine will cave and agree to Russia's essential demands. In return they will be rewarded with a symbolic sovereignty over all Ukraine, since their apparent independence from Russian Hegemony was nothing more than a polite fiction, anyway. Poroshenko and Putin will make nice to one another publicly and enthusiastically, while the one weeps behind his mask of joy and the other preens himself openly and gloats privately. The US and the EU will be left twisting in the wind, frozen in the act of making their disingenuous War of Words over a conflict that resolved itself without them..

Probably... but arming the army in Ukraine and bleeding Russia economically would at least make Vlad pay a price. If you give it to him on the cheap, do you really think he'll stop?

[+Hammerclaw]

Probably... but arming the army in Ukraine and bleeding Russia economically would at least make Vlad pay a price. If you give it to him on the cheap, do you really think he'll stop?

There's no profit in bad relations with Russia. Russia has given up Eastern Europe, the Baltic States, Bielorussia, Georgia, Armenia Turkestan, Azerbaijan and probably some other former Soviet States I've missed. They made it clear a while back that Ukraine, which contains so much Russian military infrastructure, was hands off territory. The Obama administration didn't get the message. Not content with the disastrous regime changes they've inflicted on the Islamic world, they decided to meddle in Ukrainian politics, too. Now Ukraine reaps a harvest of death for the foolishness they've sown.

[MordorOrc]

All the West has accomplished is completely misunderstanding Russia and Russians to the point of mutual alienation and deep distrust. http://www.msn.com/e...uA?ocid=U147DHP

Interestingly enough, that has also happened to Russia. Before Euromaidan, Crimea and the civil war, Ukraine was firmly within the Russian sphere and more or less content with it. Ukraine depended on Russia for a majority of its exports and the government had good relations with Moscow.

Now look at what's happened. Thanks to Putin's deal with Yanukovych, the annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian rebels, not only has the government become anti-Russian, it's turned the majority of public opinion against Russia. Moscow has lost a good ally in the region. Belarus, one of Russia's most staunch supporters, has even criticized the Russian government over Crimea and spoken out against Russian meddling in domestic affairs. Global opinion against Russia has nosedived, with public opinion of Russia in places like Venezuela overwhelmingly negative. And Venezuela is also a firm Russian ally.

Ukraine has been a public relations disaster for Russia. Ultimately it's cost Moscow more than it gained.

[+Hammerclaw]

Interestingly enough, that has also happened to Russia. Before Euromaidan, Crimea and the civil war, Ukraine was firmly within the Russian sphere and more or less content with it. Ukraine depended on Russia for a majority of its exports and the government had good relations with Moscow.

Now look at what's happened. Thanks to Putin's deal with Yanukovych, the annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian rebels, not only has the government become anti-Russian, it's turned the majority of public opinion against Russia. Moscow has lost a good ally in the region. Belarus, one of Russia's most staunch supporters, has even criticized the Russian government over Crimea and spoken out against Russian meddling in domestic affairs. Global opinion against Russia has nosedived, with public opinion of Russia in places like Venezuela overwhelmingly negative. And Venezuela is also a firm Russian ally.

Ukraine has been a public relations disaster for Russia. Ultimately it's cost Moscow more than it gained.

I agree; the misunderstanding cuts both ways. Russia is ill served by it's actions which are the culmative result of a series of misunderstandings. America tends to interpret Russia's intentions within the context of it's own historical experience and Russia interprets US foreign policy within the context of it's own history. It doesn't take a genius to see where those sorts of wrong-headed analyses have lead us. Edited February 17, 2015 by Hammerclaw