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Obama has 15 point lead


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#1    Startraveler

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 10:32 PM

And the Democratic Party has a 55-36 lead on the Republicans in terms of voter registration.

Newsweek:

Quote

Barack’s Bounce

The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. "Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the "surge" first—could alter the Republican's fortunes.

For now, however, Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House. In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided [...]

Obama's personal ratings have improved, as well: 62 percent of voters overall say they have a favorable opinion of him compared to only 26 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. By comparison, McCain's ratings are 49 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable, representing a drop from his previous 54 percent favorable rating. In the previous poll, coming at a time when Clinton's attacks on him were still fresh in Democrats' minds, Obama's favorability ratings were just 55 percent favorable versus 40 percent unfavorable. In the new survey, Clinton supporters' view of Obama have turned solidly positive (70 percent favorable versus 18 percent unfavorable).

Obama is trusted more to handle what may prove the biggest issue of the 2008 election--the economy and jobs—by a wide margin (54 percent to 29 percent). He also has a sizable advantage on energy policy, 48 percent to 34 percent, despite McCain's attempts this week to turn voters his way by supporting some new oil drilling and renewing his call for a gas-tax holiday. Voters do not lean as strongly to Obama on the issue of the Iraq War, but he is still preferred over McCain by 46 percent to 40 percent.



#2    __Kratos__

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 10:47 PM

WASHINGTON — Illinois Sen. Barack Obama hasn't gotten much of a bounce among voters nationwide since clinching the Democratic presidential nomination, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows.

Obama leads Republican John McCain by 48%-42% among registered voters in the survey, taken Sunday through Thursday. In a survey taken May 30 to June 1, Obama held a three-point lead over the Arizona senator.
Poll: Split electorate nudges Obama ahead

WASHINGTON - Democrat Barack Obama has opened a seven-point lead over Republican John McCain in the U. S. presidential race, thanks to post-primary momentum and overwhelming voter discontent with the current president.

In a new Ipsos poll released exclusively to Canwest News Service and Global Television, Mr. Obama has the support of 50% of likely voters, compared to 43% for Mr. McCain.
Poll shows McCain behind by 7 points

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow 5-point lead on Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race, but holds a big early edge with the crucial swing voting blocs of independents and women, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Two weeks after clinching the Democratic nomination and kicking off the general election campaign, Obama leads McCain by 47 percent to 42 percent. That is down slightly from Obama's 8-point advantage on McCain in May, before Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York left the Democratic race.
Obama has narrow lead on McCain: Reuters poll

Polls will keep changing all the way up to the final hour.

It doesn't surprise me at all that the Newsweek poll is higher then most. Most of their articles in the magazine lately have been on Obama due mostly to the dragged out run with Hillary and McCain was just the silent guy. Even this weeks edition seems there are 2 articles on Obama and 1 on McCain (to note here quick, I just quickly flipped through so if it's wrong, calm down tongue.gif ).

Edited by __Kratos__, 20 June 2008 - 10:48 PM.

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#3    Incorrigible1

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 10:50 PM

The haughty John Kerry enjoyed the same percentage lead at this point in 2004.....................

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#4    Startraveler

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:08 PM

Quote

It doesn't surprise me at all that the Newsweek poll is higher then most. Most of their articles in the magazine lately have been on Obama due mostly to the dragged out run with Hillary and McCain was just the silent guy. Even this weeks edition seems there are 2 articles on Obama and 1 on McCain (to note here quick, I just quickly flipped through so if it's wrong, calm down


It isn't a poll of their readership.

Quote

The haughty John Kerry enjoyed the same percentage lead at this point in 2004.....................


Actually, as the article explicitly notes, he did not.

"In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided."


#5    DieChecker

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:11 PM

Good for him>

If he wins, I hope he is skilled and expeienced enough not to be a puppet of the Congress.

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#6    Bella-Angelique

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:20 PM

DieChecker on Jun 20 2008, 07:11 PM, said:

Good for him>

If he wins, I hope he is skilled and expeienced enough not to be a puppet of the Congress.


I am afraid that Obama is so politically correct he will be worse than useless.
And I wish McCain would hurry and pick a VP before he keels over so we have another option to look at.

Whoever gets a plan out to get energy prices down fast and keep them down gets my vote.
This nation is falling to pieces and the someday wish upon a little star crap and it will get better is not going to cut it.

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#7    Incorrigible1

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Posted 20 June 2008 - 11:22 PM

Gallup's numbers vary significantly.

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama with 46% of the support of registered voters and John McCain at 44%. This is a slightly smaller margin for Obama than in previous days, but broadly representative of the pattern of the general election for most of this month.

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's (June 20) two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108223/Gallup-D...-McCain-44.aspx

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#8    AROCES

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Posted 21 June 2008 - 01:00 AM

Startraveler on Jun 20 2008, 11:08 PM, said:

[i]"In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent).

And Bush won by 3 million votes.
Newsweek polls always have favored the Democrats and always will.



#9    Homer

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Posted 21 June 2008 - 01:20 AM

To the public, polls are pretty much useless bits of information.

To the candidate, it gauges public opinion so they can cater their political campaign to the ‘flavor of the week’.

To the political pundits in the media, it’s a great way to ‘discuss’ the direction of the campaigns based on public opinions, and then discuss the candidate’s reaction to the polls, and then discuss a new poll to gauge the public’s new opinion of the candidate’s reaction to the old polls, and then discuss the candidate’s reaction to the new polls… sleepy.gif


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#10    Startraveler

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Posted 25 June 2008 - 01:04 AM

Obama up by 15 again (note that Nader and Barr are running):

Quote

Obama holds 12-point lead over McCain, poll finds


According to a Times/Bloomberg Poll, 49% of registered voters favor Sen. Barack Obama while 37% support Sen. John McCain.
A Times/Bloomberg Poll says that in a two-man contest, 49% of respondents favor Barack Obama, while 37% support John McCain. With Ralph Nader and Bob Barr added to the mix, Obama holds 15-point edge.


WASHINGTON -- Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.

In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.

Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.

In contrast, many voters give McCain credit as the more experienced candidate and the one best equipped to protect the nation against terrorism -- but they rank those concerns below their worries about the economy.

Moreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58% say they will vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided.

By contrast, 79% of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.

Even among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, more than half say they are "not enthusiastic" about their chosen candidate; only 45% say they are enthusiastic. By contrast, 81% of Obama voters say they are enthusiastic, and almost half call themselves "very enthusiastic," a level of zeal that only 13% of McCain's supporters display.

"McCain is not capturing the full extent of the conservative base the way President Bush did in 2000 and 2004," said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. "Among conservatives, evangelicals and voters who identify themselves as part of the religious right, he is polling less than 60%.

"Meanwhile, Obama is doing well among a broad range of voters," she said. "He's running ahead among women, black voters and other minorities. He's running roughly even among white voters and independents."

Among white voters, Obama and McCain are dead even at 39% each, the poll found. Earlier this year, when Obama ran behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) among white voters in some primary elections, analysts questioned whether the African American senator could win white voters in the general election. [...]


Do polls serve as much more than amusement this far out? Probably not. But it's still funny.


#11    Siara

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Posted 25 June 2008 - 12:39 PM

I really detest the way the government is functioning and relating to the rest of the world and I hope the people responsible get absolutely slaughtered in the upcoming election.  But I think part of our problem is not the Republicans themselves but the fact that one party had so much control for so long, in a country were the liberal/conservative divide is about 50/50.  I am afraid that a landslide Democratic victory might result in the same situation we've had recently (only reversed in the sense that now the Democrats will control everything).  

I'd love to see the Democrats get a landslide victory because the corrupt Republicans who've allowed government to become a tool of big business deserve an immense slap in the face- especially the oil mongers.  It's too bad the slap will be directed at McCain, who is an intelligent, honest leader.  

I won't love it , however, if things swerve so violently to the left that they feel entitled to ram their ideas down my throat like the Republicans have.  Basically, I don't want the government involved in my private life at all.

Edited by Siara, 25 June 2008 - 12:41 PM.


#12    Mr Honeybadger

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Posted 25 June 2008 - 02:27 PM

The news last night was kind of goofing on Newsweek. Apparently, for quite some time now, they've showed a large left wing bias when it comes to polls.  

Most polls are giving Obama around a four to six point lead.






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