Posted 24 September 2012 - 04:19 PM
1) Civilian nuclear enrichment.
The 2007 NIE on Iran gives moderate confidence (see key judgments) that Iran has not restarted its program. That basically means that we are not sure. The 2011 NIE seems to raise that to high confidence that it has. If it has then it wouldn't be using civilian facilities to do so.
All this means is that the Israeli leadership are on the same page. Their own misdirection. If they say they believe that Iran had restarted its program, then the deaths of Iran's nuclear scientists could be pinned on Israel. Now, I think everybody knows that Israel is behind the assignations but I don't think that has been anything that ties Israel directly to the assassinations. So the game of intrigue continues.
2) Does not need nuclear power.
Actually, I think this is true. I think Iran knows that its sweet crude will be running out, perhaps within the next 50 years. It would only make sense to build power plants. It's not the civilian research that I worry about. I wish our country would be as smart.
3) Threaten Israel.
It doesn't really matter if one says to wipe Israel from the map or to remove the regime from the pages of time. It is still a threat on Israel. Zionism is just the Right of Israel to exist. The original extent of Israel was from the Nile to the Euphrates at its height. Israel today has never ventured out in conquest beyond its borders. It has attacked when defending itself and other than a few exceptions, has returned all land it took in wars against Israel.
Iran sided with Nazi Germany in WWII. In '79 it attacked US sovereign soil. In '82 it captured Basra (it could have ended the Iraq-Iran war by just expelling the invader). And it supports Syria, and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Imanutjob knows that if he rolls the tanks at Israel, their hulks will be left burning in Syria and Jordan. But of course he has no first strike. If he can find a way to turn the actions of Israel to be legitimately offensive, then he doesn't have to worry about first strike.
4) Fatwa against nuclear weapons.
This is a red herring. Prior to 2003, Iran was perusing the bomb. The NIE had high confidence that they stopped their program in 2003 in response of the US invasion of Iraq. People tend to forget that. This was a consequence of the Iraq-Iran war and both nations were pursuing nuclear capabilities.
5) Taqiya
It's called Taqiya and Shiites do it as second nature. To claim the "The permission to lie about religion does not apply where there is a Shiite state able to protect Shiites." Is Taqiya in itself.
6) IAEA, no evidence.
The IAEA is not allowed to inspect military sites. You wouldn't be using a civilian site to enrich weapons grade uranium anyway. I don't think that places like Natanz are actual Israeli targets. One thing Iran learned from Iraq was how to make IAEA inspectors effectively inept.
7) Arms race.
It wouldn't be much of an arms race. No other nation is close to having nuclear technology. The real arms race would have been between Iraq and Iran but we defused that one. Israel just has not been as irresponsible with their nukes (or rhetoric) as Iran has with theirs. Israel has not threatened anyone with them, although they have promised to use them in defense.
The last time Jews allowed others to be in charge of their security, they were marched off to the ovens, so as long as the hatred for Israel and Jews exist, I don't see Israel ever disarming. It's interesting that there have been no IAEA inspections of Israeli nuclear weapons but everyone just knows that they exist and yet despite the NIE, there is just no way that Iran has them (or is getting real close).
8) Reduced stockpile of civilian enriched uranium.
This is just another red herring. Iran produces its own yellowcake. They mine and mill it. And Argentina isn't the only other source for augmenting their yellowcake, if they need it. There was recently a shipment of Tantalum intercepted in Bolivia (originally believed to be uranium). It has uses in electronics to hip implants. It also has uses to increase the "dirtyness" of dirty bombs. I'm not saying that Iran was the buyer, but that is just one example of what goes on "out there" and that things can be purchased covertly and they can be disguised as other things.
9) Iran's activities are source of instability.
Need I note that in 1970, Black September in Jordan took place and it was pretty much ignored. Just as a reminder, Black September was Jordan's version of Ethnic Cleansing on the Palestinian. In the Arab world, the Palestinian are unwanted trouble makers. Their only use is cannon fodder to be used against Israel. Even Imanutjob says he is for a one-state solution. Both sides know that a two-state solution is not feasible. The Palestinian was never really a race or culture. Prior to 1922, you were not Palestinian, you were of this particular tribe or that tribe that lived there. In an evolutionary sense, the short lived Palestinian is dying out. They have no one but themselves to blame.
Anyway, to get back to the original premise of this item before Cole changed gears. Going from Iran being a destabilizing influence to the plight of the Palestinian people shows the disingenuousness of the whole piece. Many of the Arab nations have shown concern over an increasingly powerful Iran, especially Saudi Arabia. Just because Arabs and Persians are Muslim, doesn't mean they are best buds. The hopes of the return of the Mahdi is to bring them together but Arabs would see it as a means for a power grab by Iran. And Arabs are not interested in having Persian masters.