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Do you accept the reality of AGW ?


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Poll: Do you accept the science of anthropogenic climate change ? (50 member(s) have cast votes)

Do you accept the science of anthropogenic climate change ?

  1. Yes (31 votes [60.78%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 60.78%

  2. No (20 votes [39.22%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 39.22%

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#31    Br Cornelius

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 09:27 AM

View PostFurthurBB, on 15 February 2013 - 03:29 AM, said:

Someone mentioned reducing rates especially in developing countries.  I cannot agree that developing countries can be targeted in that way or they will not develop.  Developed countries have to take the bulk of the burden because they can and because they were allowed to develop without interference.  Although I think China is developed and needs to start reducing their emissions.
The convergence rate for sustainable development is 2tonnes of carbon per person. For most people in the developed world this means a reduction of 80% on current emissions. For those in developing nations current emissions are generally in the region of 1tonne so the targets allow for a doubling of their emissions. If this were achieved through a roll out of solar PV, solar cookers and biogas this would raise billions out of abject poverty to a comfortable standard of living. It would ensure that the remaining tree biomass wasn't converted to woodfuel (the primary pressure on trees in developing countries - especially African nations). This is why technology transfer, and support for developing nations investment in these areas, are critically important in arresting the decline of the planetary biosphere and why it is such an important focus within Kyoto.This should be about enlightened self interest.

The west has always had an exploitative relationship with developing nations and the next stage of that is to attempt to deny them appropriate developement to allow for the wests own unsustainable behaviour to continue.

This video should inspire confidence in what can be achieved;


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 15 February 2013 - 09:31 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#32    Br Cornelius

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 09:44 AM

So Little Fish, you finally came off the fence and decided that man has no influence of climate change, Nice :tu:
At least your been honest now :whistle: .


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 23 February 2013 - 09:45 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#33    Tutankhaten-pasheri

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 10:30 AM

I certainly think we should not be pumping out millions of tons of various gases into the atmosphere, or as much other waste into the sea and land. This is clearly commonsense for both sides of argument. However, it seems disagreable that skeptics of AGW are being treated like some sort of primitive reactionaries,and sly hints that they may of course be fascists, rascists, witches etc etc. The propaganda is as obvious as it is obnoxious. I am not any earth scientist of any description, but I know Earth is technically still in an ice-age, and an ice-age is determined if there is any ice at both poles. At the moment we are in an interglacial period. within an overall ice-age. Eventually this period will end. The question is about if this interglacial is not actually an interglacial, but the natural end to the ice-age. Certainly there is evidence of existing glaciers retreating and sea ice declining, though this is by no means conclusive proof of anything as it is within any normal fluctuations. Despite ice core analysis, we still have a very short term view of natural cycles, for instance, how long have we been able to take the measurements we are able now? and now old is the Earth? Perhaps there is some arrogance about our own abilities here. The normal condition for most of Earth's history is of a greenhouse planet, it could be simply a co-incidence that we the ones alive when Earth begins to return to it's normal state. The problem for us is that we are no longer hunter gatherers able to freely move about the planet, migrating away from problem areas. Now we have developed nation states we have lost the abiltiy to migrate at will and on a big scale. There will be devastating wars over any real climate change, and likely in our lifetime, if this is the end of the ice-age and not just a fluctuation within an interglacial.

Edited by Atentutankh-pasheri, 23 February 2013 - 10:32 AM.


#34    Br Cornelius

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 10:50 AM

View PostAtentutankh-pasheri, on 23 February 2013 - 10:30 AM, said:

I certainly think we should not be pumping out millions of tons of various gases into the atmosphere, or as much other waste into the sea and land. This is clearly commonsense for both sides of argument.However, it seems disagreable that skeptics of AGW are being treated like some sort of primitive reactionaries,and sly hints that they may of course be fascists, rascists, witches etc etc. The propaganda is as obvious as it is obnoxious.

You are the only one name calling here. I have pointed out that certain members are well known conspiracy freaks and that makes them highly motivated to distort reality. The simple fact is that those who espouse skeptism cannot defend their position in a logically consistent way which accounts for the evidence. As such it is reasonable to call them deniers. I have consitenty found that those in denial are motivated by ideological drivers such a political conservatism, a belief that all governments are out to get/kill us and/or religious belief that we are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. When presented with the evidence of AGW they either distort it or deny it, and this is why they have been justly labelled deniers because it perfectly describes their methodology.

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I am not any earth scientist of any description, but I know Earth is technically still in an ice-age, and an ice-age is determined if there is any ice at both poles. At the moment we are in an interglacial period.
Care to support that with any evidence since no definition of an ice age I have ever come across defines it as needing to have ice at the pole. Thats a simple request which you will find shows that you are arguing from a false premise and therefore you conclusions are highly suspect. You are correct in saying that we are in an interglacial period - not a glacial period.
The Wiki entry would make a nice summery of what an ice age is, but remember that an ice age is very much an arbitrary definition based upon subjective criteria defined by the user of the term. This maybe where you arrived at your misunderstanding since if you are quoting from a site which is espousing the new trendy theory of a coming ice age (russian in origin), they have probably fabricated the polar bit to support their dubious position;

Quote

An ice age, or more precisely, a glacial age, is a period of long-term reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental ice sheets, polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Within a long-term ice age, individual pulses of cold climate are termed "glacial periods" (or alternatively "glacials" or "glaciations" or colloquially as "ice age"), and intermittent warm periods are called "interglacials". Glaciologically, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in the northern and southern hemispheres.[1] By this definition, we are still in the ice age that began 2.6 million years ago at the start of the Pleistocene epoch, because the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets still exist.[2]


Quote

within an overall ice-age. Eventually this period will end. The question is about if this interglacial is not actually an interglacial, but the natural end to the ice-age. Certainly there is evidence of existing glaciers retreating and sea ice declining, though this is by no means conclusive proof of anything as it is within any normal fluctuations.

The actual long term temperature record shows that we have been in a long term decline in temperature which would have eventually put us back in an ice age, but that would have been in about 20thousand years time. The current warming came out of nowhere with none of the usual normal climate drivers causing it and dramatically and rapidly reversed the cooling trend of millenium.

Quote

Despite ice core analysis, we still have a very short term view of natural cycles, for instance, how long have we been able to take the measurements we are able now? and now old is the Earth? Perhaps there is some arrogance about our own abilities here. The normal condition for most of Earth's history is of a greenhouse planet, it could be simply a co-incidence that we the ones alive when Earth begins to return to it's normal state. The problem for us is that we are no longer hunter gatherers able to freely move about the planet, migrating away from problem areas. Now we have developed nation states we have lost the abiltiy to migrate at will and on a big scale. There will be devastating wars over any real climate change, and likely in our lifetime, if this is the end of the ice-age and not just a fluctuation within an interglacial.
Which all preceeds from the misunderstanding that climate science is all about AGW, it is not. Climate science is all about understanding the mechanisms of natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change. We have a fairly good handle on the natural processes which cause transitions from ice ages to interglacials, and that is why the current warming is so startling in that it is so out of character for the planet in its current orbital state.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 23 February 2013 - 11:00 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#35    Tutankhaten-pasheri

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 11:10 AM

My post was rational and calm and correct to my knowledge. Your replies are almost Stalinist and show an almost religious and dogmatic approach to this subject. I will not quote any science back at you, for it will be simply my word. No discussion here about the money made from this climate change nonsense. Nothing about all the false reporting (lies) about Himalayas, or the corruption by those unelected officials in UN and other bodies who make jobs for family and friends about this affair, or the vast amount of money they make. This climate change was treated as fringe a few years back, then Bush and others saw opportunities for $$$ and sudenly it is the new reality and crap dropped on heads of "deniers" . You a friend of Bush and big business? tovarish.........


#36    Br Cornelius

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 11:29 AM

View PostAtentutankh-pasheri, on 23 February 2013 - 11:10 AM, said:

My post was rational and calm and correct to my knowledge. Your replies are almost Stalinist and show an almost religious and dogmatic approach to this subject. I will not quote any science back at you, for it will be simply my word. No discussion here about the money made from this climate change nonsense. Nothing about all the false reporting (lies) about Himalayas, or the corruption by those unelected officials in UN and other bodies who make jobs for family and friends about this affair, or the vast amount of money they make. This climate change was treated as fringe a few years back, then Bush and others saw opportunities for $$$ and sudenly it is the new reality and crap dropped on heads of "deniers" . You a friend of Bush and big business? tovarish.........
I am not interested in your opinions since they are worth nothing to anyone here. If you are not prepared to defend your statements with evidence then they are just more hot air. My reply addressed the specific misconceptions you espoused based on my understanding of climate science. I can back up every single statement I made with scientific papers - can you ???

As to the rest, just ill informed paranoid nonsense. Bush did everything he could to block climate research in defence of his fossil fuel interests and their lobbyists.  Climate science existed before AGW and the amount of money spent on it would have been significantly the same since it is of economic importance to understand what climate will do in the future based on understanding of what it did in the past.


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 23 February 2013 - 11:30 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#37    Little Fish

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 01:55 PM

View PostAtentutankh-pasheri, on 23 February 2013 - 11:10 AM, said:

My post was rational and calm and correct to my knowledge. Your replies are almost Stalinist and show an almost religious and dogmatic approach to this subject. I will not quote any science back at you, for it will be simply my word. No discussion here about the money made from this climate change nonsense. Nothing about all the false reporting (lies) about Himalayas, or the corruption by those unelected officials in UN and other bodies who make jobs for family and friends about this affair, or the vast amount of money they make. This climate change was treated as fringe a few years back, then Bush and others saw opportunities for $$$ and sudenly it is the new reality and crap dropped on heads of "deniers" . You a friend of Bush and big business? tovarish.........
well said tut.
cornelius, you should stop spitting your poison, it does no good for your political cause.

I hear they have figured a technical way to remove co2 from power station emissions.
how will the name calling cultists respond i wonder.


#38    Br Cornelius

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 03:24 PM

View PostLittle Fish, on 23 February 2013 - 01:55 PM, said:

well said tut.
cornelius, you should stop spitting your poison, it does no good for your political cause.

I hear they have figured a technical way to remove co2 from power station emissions.
how will the name calling cultists respond i wonder.
Last time I looked (about 6months ago) carbon capture was been abandoned everywhere it had been tried as been totally uneconomic, so unless some miracle has happened since I doubt anyone will be saying anything. It is estimated any viable carbon capture would make coal twice as expensive making it uneconomical when competing against renewables.

I always have a little corner of my spleen for you little fish. Reassuring to see your still consistently backing the wrong horse.

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#39    Br Cornelius

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 04:22 PM

The reason that the current interglacial has about 20Kyears left to run;

Quote

To answer this question, it is necessary to understand what has caused the shifts between ice ages and interglacials during this period. The cycle appears to be a response to changes in the Earth’s orbit and tilt, which affect the amount of summer sunlight reaching the northern hemisphere. When this amount declines, the rate of summer melt declines and the ice sheets begin to grow. In turn, this increases the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, increasing (or amplifying) the cooling trend. Eventually a newice age emerges and lasts for about 100,000 years.
So what are today’s conditions like? Changes in both the orbit and tilt of the Earth do indeed indicate that the Earth should be cooling. However, two reasons explain why an ice age is unlikely:
  • These two factors, orbit and tilt, are weak and are not acting within the same timescale – they are out of phase by about 10,000 years. This means that their combined effect would probably be too weak to trigger an ice age. You have to go back 430,000 years to find an interglacial with similar conditions, and this interglacial lasted about 30,000 years.
  • The warming effect from CO2 and other greenhouse gases is greater than the cooling effect expected from natural factors. Without human interference, the Earth’s orbit and tilt, a slight decline in solar output since the 1950s and volcanic activity would have led to global cooling. Yet global temperatures are definitely on the rise.
It can therefore be concluded that with CO2 concentrations set to continue to rise, a return to ice age conditions seems very unlikely. Instead, temperatures are increasing andthis increase may come at a considerable cost with few or no benefits.

http://www.skeptical...tle-ice-age.htm

So extrapolation from paleoclimatological records comes to our rescue to explain why a currently trendy theory is wrong, and why climate science studies history to better understand the present.

Quote

well said tut.

Its only well said when it comes from a reasonable position :tu:


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 23 February 2013 - 04:23 PM.

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Robert Anton Wilson

#40    Tutankhaten-pasheri

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 08:43 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 23 February 2013 - 11:29 AM, said:

I am not interested in your opinions since they are worth nothing to anyone here. If you are not prepared to defend your statements with evidence then they are just more hot air. My reply addressed the specific misconceptions you espoused based on my understanding of climate science. I can back up every single statement I made with scientific papers - can you ???

As to the rest, just ill informed paranoid nonsense. Bush did everything he could to block climate research in defence of his fossil fuel interests and their lobbyists.  Climate science existed before AGW and the amount of money spent on it would have been significantly the same since it is of economic importance to understand what climate will do in the future based on understanding of what it did in the past.


Br Cornelius
Entire long original reply edited out to become this - I do not engage in theosophical arguments with arrogant, pompous, pedantic religious fundamentalists (climate change hysterics) who engage in fascist slur and disinformation tactics. Sneer and insult all you like, there will be no reponse, I no longer have time or inclination for these stupid idiot games on this site. And as for the ridiculous habit of people always having to have the last comment to "proove" they are right, well, KMA :)

Edited by Atentutankh-pasheri, 24 February 2013 - 09:29 AM.


#41    Br Cornelius

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 09:12 AM

View PostAtentutankh-pasheri, on 24 February 2013 - 08:43 AM, said:

Entire long original reply edited out to become this - I do not engage in theosophical arguments with arrogant, pompous, pedantic religious fundamentalists (climate change hysterics) who engage in fascist slur and disinformation tactics. Sneer and insult all you like, there will be no reponse, I no longer have time or inclination for these stupid idiot games on this site.
No you make unsupportable statements and expect to be taken seriously.
Remember this, everything I said was supportable with evidence, and I get mighty sick of people repeating bull**** as if it were fact :tu:

When you can be grown up enough to present a statement and support it in debate with evidence, you might feel a bit happier when your opinions are questioned and you can actually defend them. Until then its only you who are playing games.

As to the ad homiems - grow up.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 24 February 2013 - 09:20 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#42    Little Fish

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 01:26 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 23 February 2013 - 03:24 PM, said:

Last time I looked (about 6months ago) carbon capture was been abandoned everywhere it had been tried as been totally uneconomic, so unless some miracle has happened since I doubt anyone will be saying anything. It is estimated any viable carbon capture would make coal twice as expensive making it uneconomical when competing against renewables.
you think this way because you are stuck in your box. the new process doesn't burn coal, it releases the coal's energy through chemical reaction not combustion, so there is no co2. I'll wager you never heard of this because the parties that promote and fund this "AGW" have an agenda, not in itself to reduce emissions, but as a means to take society back a thousand years to a feudalistic slavery system. will it ever become reailty, probably not since safe thorium nuclear reactor technology has been available for 50 years and strangely was never developed.

Quote

I always have a little corner of my spleen for you little fish. Reassuring to see your still consistently backing the wrong horse.
that's encouraging, i would have expected much less from you.


#43    Br Cornelius

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 01:41 PM

View PostLittle Fish, on 24 February 2013 - 01:26 PM, said:

you think this way because you are stuck in your box. the new process doesn't burn coal, it releases the coal's energy through chemical reaction not combustion, so there is no co2. I'll wager you never heard of this because the parties that promote and fund this "AGW" have an agenda, not in itself to reduce emissions, but as a means to take society back a thousand years to a feudalistic slavery system. will it ever become reailty, probably not since safe thorium nuclear reactor technology has been available for 50 years and strangely was never developed.

that's encouraging, i would have expected much less from you.
Little Fish, if you have some actual facts to share then please share them so we can all be educated. Only when I see the facts and figures can I have an informed opinion on them. Things are rarely as simple as they first appear, but maybe you have something and we can all go back to burning coal in a clean and efficient way. Only the scientific evidence will allow us to know though.

You see Little Fish, if it is true, then I will be a fan. Its that simple - I want the best for us all. I don't share your paranoia about the powers that be.

Its nice for you finally to state out in the open your real motivation, the great oppressive feudal return conspiracy. Only took you a full 5 years to be honest about what you really believe.


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 24 February 2013 - 01:43 PM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#44    onereaderone

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 02:25 PM

this  is  way  to  easy...
three  ideas...   lets  see  if  you  can  get  upset with  out  calling  me  names  and  getting  red  faced ....
*****************************************************************

idea 1 ,  
oxygen at  20% in  the  atmosphere  is  unnatural ,  it  is  caused  by  plants  that  produce oxygen  to  kill  off  those  life  forms  that   are  not  oxygen  hardy .
when  oxygen  levels  go  up...   things  burn ,  and  animals  get  active .

when  carbondioxide  goes  up...  plants  grow  faster and  animals  sleep  more .

it  is  a self  regulating  system ,  and  frankly  speaking ,  its  a  whole  lot  bigger  than  7  billion  people can  disrupt .
************************************************************************************

idea 2 .
during second  season of  world  war  one ,  they  had  the  worst  winter  on  record .
during second  season of  world  war  two ,  they  had  the  worst  winter  on  record .
during second  season of  american revolution  ,  they  had  the  worst  winter  on  record .

i  could  go  on ,  but  lets  look  at  the  time  line  of  hot  and cold ....  
and  something  that  has  been  known  since  the  time  before  history ...

when  people  are  busy  doing  other  things...  they  do  not  plant crops ,   but  they  make  a lot  of  messy  oil  spills  and  nasty burned  out  building ,  and  dead  animals  laying  about  rotting ....
and  guess  what  your  climet  models do  not  see...   history says...   things  get  cold  when  carbon  goes  up,  you  start  pulling  carbon dioxide  out  of  the  air ,  plants  will  grow  slower ,  and  things  will  heat  up.  

it  has  absolutly  nothing  at  all  to  do  with  green  house  gas...    and  everything  to  do  with  heat  comming  off   feilds  of  growing  crops .  if  you  look  at  the  real  record  ,  and  take  the academic  point  of  spin  and politic's  out...  you  have   what  every  sail  plane  pilot  in  the  world  knows ....   you  catch thermals   over  parking  lots  and  corn feilds...  this  is  not  rocket  science ...  stop  feeding  people ,  let  them  starve...  and  you  will  get  more  global  warming ,  which  will  lead  to  castistophic failures of  the  eco-system...  which  will  lead  to a new academic model...   that  says...  ooops,  we  got  it  backwards....

we need  more  of  the  carbondioxide ,  to  pump  up  the  growing seasons , to  last  longer...  to  cool  everything  down...

to  cool  the  center  of  the  earth ,  so  the  magnetic  feild  will  fail...  and  kill  off  all  life  on  earth...

*****************************************************************************************************************************

idea 3  

there  is  no  way  to  explain  this  so  that  it  makes  even  the  tiny  sense  it  needs  to...   if  the  earth  was  the  size  of  the  earth...    all  the  living  matter is  so  small...   it  makes  no  sense at all  how  tiny  it  is .      the  atmosphere  is  not  miles  thick...  its  thousands  of  feet  thick...   living  things  are  not  hundreds  of  feet  below  the  ground...   the  bark  of  a tree  is  how  deep  living  things  go...   living  stuff  is between   one  cell  floating  in  a ocean ...or...  mostly   3  to  6  cells  deep ,  and  that  is   99.999%   of  the  bulk  weight  of  what  we  know  is  living stuff ....   frankly  speaking..  the  stuff that   walks  around is  pretty  amazing ,  but  its   so  very  tiny  in  the  scheme  of  things ,   and  its  not  been  around  for  long enought  to  know  how its  going to  effect  the  old  guys .

i  understand  that  there  are  7  billion  humans.  but  there  is  a billion  tons  of  planckton  for  every  human  on  the  earth , and  when  the  planckton   gets  a sniffel...   the  earth  sees  an ice  age ....


#45    Little Fish

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 07:13 PM

the poll is a leading question, vote no and you risk looking like a wacko who denies science in the eyes of the believers.

so, putting the stupid poll aside, here is what the data says, and what the debate is really about.







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