57 replies to this topic

[27vet]

    Newfound space rock will buzz Earth in February, astronomers report.



Richard A. Lovett
for National Geographic News
Published May 17, 2012

A newly discovered asteroid called 2012 DA14 will pass so close to Earth in February that it might hit a communications satellite, scientists say.
"That's very unlikely, but we can't rule it out," said Paul Chodas, a planetary astronomer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California.
Discovered several weeks ago by astronomers at the LaSagra Observatory in Spain, the asteroid is currently "a fuzzy little blob," as seen through telescopes, said Steven Chesley, also at JPL.
Astronomers estimate that the space rock is just 150 feet (45 meters) wide. But "the orbit for 2012 DA14 is currently very Earthlike, which means it will be very close to Earth on a regular basis," Chodas said.

http://news.national...-space-science/

Edited by Waspie_Dwarf, 19 February 2013 - 08:21 PM.
Returned tags, which disappeared during topic merging.

[Hilander]

Hope it doesn't get close enough to hit.

[27vet]

Even a small asteroid could cause a lot of misery, and because of its size we wouldn't detect it very early.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

Hilander, on 18 May 2012 - 06:15 PM, said:

Hope it doesn't get close enough to hit.

It's orbit is well known, there is zero chance of an impact in 2013. The chance of it impacting on 2020 are around 1 in 37 million. The chances of an impact sometime between 2020 and 2082 are 1 in 3,230.

27vet, on 18 May 2012 - 06:34 PM, said:

Even a small asteroid could cause a lot of misery, and because of its size we wouldn't detect it very early.

The fact we know of this asteroid's existence so many months before closest approach shows that we can detect Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) long before impact. A recent study suggests we have found 20-30% of these objects and searches are improving that figure all the time.

Objects below about 25 metres in diameter present a negligible risk as they tend to burn up or explode in the upper atmosphere. Although larger than this, this object is too small to be considered a PHA. Should it ever hit the Earth it would cause "local" damage similar to the 1908 Tunguska event. That would still be pretty devastating should it hit a city, but as much of the planet is either covered in water or sparsely populated this scenario is unlikely.

[27vet]

I'm just thinking in terms of how many months it will take to develop and build a package to destroy or divert a PHA. Do we have anything suitable right now?

Edited by 27vet, 19 May 2012 - 01:37 PM.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

27vet, on 19 May 2012 - 01:35 PM, said:

I'm just thinking in terms of how many months it will take to develop and build a package to destroy or divert a PHA. Do we have anything suitable right now?

Not really. In fact there's a lot of debate in how exactly to deal with such an object. This is why there so much interest in missions to asteroids at the moment.

[ChewiesArmy]

We already know the correct way to deal with PHA's. All we need is a small triangle that shoots periods.

[Taun]

The FAA (whom I work for) is announcing that we here in OKC will be participating in an "Asteroid strike drill" today... Though they don't say so, it seems like they are using the near pass of 2012 DA14 as the basis for the drill...

The premise is that the asteroid hits the Earths atmosphere and then breaks up into smaller chunks that 'pepper' the Texas, Oklahoma region...  (as if tornadoes aren't bad enough.... )

While this is a cool kind of drill (IMO) ... they neglected to tell us (the 'victims') what we are supposed to do when the 'sirens go off' (or even if there will be an alarm)...
So this could get interesting... Though it will probably just be a drill for fast reaction teams...

I suppose we could just use the old "Wally Cox Disaster Plan"...
"When in Danger, Or in Doubt,
Run in Circles, Scream and Shout."
(a short 'poem' by the late great Wally Cox)

Which brings to mind the question... In the event of a 'shotgun-like' strike of this nature... what is the appropriate reaction?  In the event of Tornadoes, you get below ground... In the event of fire you get the heck out of the building... Earthquakes, you get outside away from buildings (if you have time)... For a major asteroid strike, you just get some popcorn and enjoy the end of the world... What do you do for a strike by asteroid fragments?...

Edited by Taun, 24 May 2012 - 12:12 PM.

[27vet]

@Taun Depends what size the fragments are. Make friends with someone who can get you into one of those nuke-proof silos.

[Taun]

27vet, on 24 May 2012 - 01:04 PM, said:

@Taun Depends what size the fragments are. Make friends with someone who can get you into one of those nuke-proof silos.

There aren't too many of them here in Oklahoma... Most of them are up north in Montana, etc...

[Mentalcase]

Taun, on 24 May 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

There aren't too many of them here in Oklahoma... Most of them are up north in Montana, etc...

http://www.silohome.com/index.htm

[Taun]

Mentalcase, on 24 May 2012 - 03:41 PM, said:

http://www.silohome.com/index.htm

I could force myself to live in squallor like that....

[masaimara]

On Feb. 15, near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 is predicted to pass within a mere 3.5 Earth radii from our planet, a distance that is well within the orbits of geosynchronous satellites. The asteroid is small, perhaps 45 meters across, and will be too faint to see without a telescope or good binoculars, but this won't be enough to dampen the imagination of believers conjuring nightmares of a satellite collision or worse. When nothing happens, they will warn us that things will be vastly more dire when 2012 DA14 returns in 2020.

http://www.huffingto..._n_1538340.html

[bison]

Asteroid 2012 DA 14 comes near Earth every February.  Its orbital motion appears to be approximately synchronized with that of Earth, at the present time. February 2013 appears to be the closest pass for at least several years to come. It will pass over 11 million miles from Earth in 2020, which is unremarkable.

[Professor T]

A 57 meter large rock has its annual flyby of the earth on 15th February . Its projected orbit, according to NASA, will bring it well within the orbits of geosynchronous satellites currently orbiting our planet. NASA has indicated that there is no danger of this asteroid impacting our planet, however they have not ruled out our gravity changing the asteroids orbital pattern.

Oh, and it if did hit, we'd be talking about the energy of 2.4 Megatons.



http://ssd.jpl.nasa....b.cgi?sstr=2012 DA14&orb=1