Earth heading for 'mini ice-age' within 15 yr

[Still Waters]

The earth is 15 years from a "mini ice-age" that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as the Thames freeze over, scientists have predicted.

Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun's activity which they claim produces "unprecedentedly accurate predictions".

They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in such a way that temperatures will fall dramatically in the 2030s.

http://www.telegraph...n-15-years.html

[Maxey]

Cool

Edited July 11, 2015 by Maxey

[robinrenee]

Uh oh... there's gonna be some PO'd politicians.

I'll bet the carbon tax billionaires are already scrambling... and screaming, "How'd this one get past our blockade?"

[robinrenee]

The earth is 15 years from a "mini ice-age" that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as the Thames freeze over, scientists have predicted.

Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun's activity which they claim produces "unprecedentedly accurate predictions".

They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in such a way that temperatures will fall dramatically in the 2030s.

http://www.telegraph...n-15-years.html

Funny... the article is about the coming mini ice age, but....

the video below the article is global warming propaganda.

I have a feeling the GW hoax will "not go gentle into that good night." (BTW that's a Dylan Thomas quote.)

Edited July 12, 2015 by robinrenee

[Wickian]

Eh... Just like the AGW people, I'll hold my breath and decades-in-the-future predictions. Have past solar cycle intensities been accurately predicted in the past?

[fred_mc]

I guess we are lucky that we have the greenhouse effect to partly counteract mini ice ages. I've seen scientists say that it should soon be time for a new real ice age but that the greenhouse effect can prevent it from happening.

[Guest Br Cornelius]

Funny... the article is about the coming mini ice age, but....

the video below the article is global warming propaganda.

I have a feeling the GW hoax will "not go gentle into that good night." (BTW that's a Dylan Thomas quote.)

This changes nothing about the ongoing Global warming crisis. It has always been understood that global warming is on top of naturally driven cycles such as the sun.

Don't go crowing about something you patently don't understand at all.

If this prediction comes to pass it will be a bad thing because it will allow people like you an opportunity to deny reality just a little bit longer with effects on mitigation policy which will make us all suffer in the long run.

Br Cornelius

Edited July 12, 2015 by Br Cornelius

[Von Bismarck]

Nope this will defiantly not happen. If we had no AGW, then yes this could be likely, however as this stands it's simply not possible.

This Author simply disregard that the Sun is not the main driver of climate anymore.

[Von Bismarck]

Okay have know read her paper. She has not included any internally climate variabilities. However why should she? When her paper is not about the impact of the sun activity reduction on climate, but about the sun's magnetic waves.

Once again the media is disinforming the public.

[Doc Socks Junior]

This changes nothing about the ongoing Global warming crisis. It has always been understood that global warming is on top of naturally driven cycles such as the sun.

Or the sun is on top of naturally driven cycles like global warming. It's probably that I prefer a bottom-up approach to heat cycles.

If this prediction comes to pass it will be a bad thing because it will allow people like you an opportunity to deny reality just a little bit longer with effects on mitigation policy which will make us all suffer in the long run.

Wait...so if it stops warming, and we get a mini Ice age, it would be denying reality to think that it's cold outside? Because it will be warmer at some point in the future? Let's play that one through the logic machine....

Yep, the logic machine says that's a funky definition of "reality".

[Guest Br Cornelius]

Or the sun is on top of naturally driven cycles like global warming. It's probably that I prefer a bottom-up approach to heat cycles.

Wait...so if it stops warming, and we get a mini Ice age, it would be denying reality to think that it's cold outside? Because it will be warmer at some point in the future? Let's play that one through the logic machine....

Yep, the logic machine says that's a funky definition of "reality".

It would be to interpret the temporary coolness of the event as meaning that AGW is not in fact real. That would be the obvious mistake which robinrenee is attempting (a mistake that I cannot believe you didn't get from my comments). A slow down in the warming caused by a natural cycle offers no relief from the inevitable effects of ever increasing greenhouse gases.

My logic is entirely clear and consistent and i think it is you who are been perverse in misinterpreting what I said.

Br Cornelius

Edited July 12, 2015 by Br Cornelius

[ShadowSot]

This pops up every couple of years. Bad Astronomer has an article on it:http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/06/17/are-we-headed-for-a-new-ice-age/#.VaKPlsso7qA

[Thorvir]

I remember the coming doom of an ice age back in the 70s. Then it was the ozone hole. Then this global warming crap. And...now we're back to an ice age.

It's a fairly circular cycle of sensationalism and doom and gloom.

Edited July 12, 2015 by Thorvir Hrothgaard

[Guest Br Cornelius]

I remember the coming doom of an ice age back in the 70s. Then it was the ozone hole. Then this global warming crap. And...now we're back to an ice age.

It's a fairly circular cycle of sensationalism and doom and gloom.

if you followed the actual research as BFB did you would see that the lead author makes no such claims. Her paper discusses the periodicity of the suns output and the underlying mechanism.

It is dodgy journalism (just like in the 1970's) which is been sensational. Now there's a surprise

Br Cornelius

[robinrenee]

This pops up every couple of years. Bad Astronomer has an article on it:http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/06/17/are-we-headed-for-a-new-ice-age/#.VaKPlsso7qA

A blogger smacks down Professor Zharkova? I don't think so...

[Guest Br Cornelius]

Since Prof. Zharkova has made no such claims then there is nothing really to smack down.

She is a scientist after all and has simply described a solar mechanism. The Claim of 60% reduction (of what exactly) seems to have no actual province but is the figure that everyone seems to have latched onto to make the claim of an impending mini-ice age.

I am certain if you actually talked to the Prof. she would absolutely distance herself from the sensational story been attributed to her name. Expect a statement from here soon - she will not want her reputation damaged by sensational journalism.

But that Blog is an excellent summery of the actual science of the Little Ice age and how it is only indirectly linked to the Maunder Minima. If you want to understand what is really happening I encourage you to read it.

Br Cornelius

Edited July 12, 2015 by Br Cornelius

[ShadowSot]

A blogger smacks down Professor Zharkova? I don't think so...

I get you have no idea who Phil Plait is, but he is a physicist and astronomer who worked for NASA, a published science author, and the blogs he writes for are for two well respected magazines.

If you had read the article it is a bit more nuanced than debunking.

I only mention his qualifications to show he has the requisite skill and information to understand what he writes about.

As Br. Cornelius points out, this is a sensationalized interpretation of the study.

[Merc14]

Hey Br. why didn't your models, the only proof you have of AGW, see this coming? Yet again they have missed an important factor but still remain flawless in your closed mind. If we are all supposd to wreck our economy nased on tehs eflawless models then shouldn't the models already include these solar cycles? Maybe AGW isn't the closed science you'd have us all believe.

[Doc Socks Junior]

It would be to interpret the temporary coolness of the event as meaning that AGW is not in fact real.

Well no. That's not the point. Temporary coolness does in fact mean that it's temporarily cool. Nothing about long term cycles there. To be honest, if the paper did indeed (which I'm pretty sure it doesn't) point to a short term cool-down occurring soon, it would mean a whole lot more than a temporary blip in the AGW cycle

That would be the obvious mistake which robinrenee is attempting (a mistake that I cannot believe you didn't get from my comments). A slow down in the warming caused by a natural cycle offers no relief from the inevitable effects of ever increasing greenhouse gases.

No, I got her mistake quite clearly. I got your mistake quite clearly too. Increasing greenhouse gases are still a natural cycle. I know, I know, mankind is a plague and all that, but hey, a part of nature too.

My logic is entirely clear and consistent and i think it is you who are been perverse in misinterpreting what I said.

Oooo perverse. Nice.

[ShadowSot]

Well except for the last decade being the hottest on record, increasing acidification of the ocean, changing and weakening oceanic currents, fewer but more piwerful hurricanes, water scarcity, and so on.

The archaeology mags and journals I read are packed with findings from melting permafrost and glaciers.

[freetoroam]

We have had them before, this time we will be more prepared and have the proper things to keep us warm, eg: electricity, central heating and double glazing. We humans have come a long way from our forefathers who had to live in pretty tough conditions. Lets hope we have learned from their hard lives.

The only problem which may arise could be the lose of the internet connections...now we really are talking panic fest! for some!!

Lets just hope that because of this news the electricity companies do not start upping the prices.

[Guest Br Cornelius]

No, I got her mistake quite clearly. I got your mistake quite clearly too. Increasing greenhouse gases are still a natural cycle. I know, I know, mankind is a plague and all that, but hey, a part of nature too.

All I can say to that is BS.

Br Cornelius

[Guest Br Cornelius]

Hey Br. why didn't your models, the only proof you have of AGW, see this coming? Yet again they have missed an important factor but still remain flawless in your closed mind. If we are all supposd to wreck our economy nased on tehs eflawless models then shouldn't the models already include these solar cycles? Maybe AGW isn't the closed science you'd have us all believe.

when you make a blatantly false/misleading statement like that then its a real conversation stiopper. its a sure sign we have entered the realm of the ignorant.

Let us clearly restate this, the person who's science we are commenting on has made absolutely no predictions about future climate. She has observed that a solar event comparable to the Maunder minima may be about to happen. Unlike those skeptics here who don't know their science she has not associated the Maunder Minima directly with the Little ice Age.

Br Cornelius

Edited July 12, 2015 by Br Cornelius

[Doc Socks Junior]

Wait, are you saying that greenhouse gases have never increased before? They stayed at one level, for thousands of years, and then some hominids got clever and started pumping them out?

[ShadowSot]

When was the last time in Earth's history carbon levels were at the current levels?