182 replies to this topic

[Capt Amerika]

What does Al "Jazeera" Gore have to say on the subject today?

[minera]

I wish they would make up their minds about this global warming stuff.

[Capt Amerika]

Doug1o29, on 10 January 2013 - 02:06 PM, said:

According to NOAA, the US just had it's hottest, dryest year ever.  Of course, that doesn't count three worse droughts we know about from the tree-ring record.
Doug

According to NOAA we were supposed to have seen 10 inches of snow yesterday.
We got none.

[Capt Amerika]

minera, on 10 January 2013 - 04:38 PM, said:

I wish they would make up their minds about this global warming stuff.

They will.
As soon as they get you to buy several of those $50 LED light bulbs for your home and get you buy an electric car.

[Capt Amerika]

Every time i hear people yell the sky is falling over climate change it makes me cringe.
All data used to show how we are on the verge of death and destruction ends up being data mined from the past 200 years and you know what it shows?
Yep, its warming.
But what happens if we look back 1000 years?  You know, maybe check and see if warming and cooling doesn't just happen in cycles naturally?
Wow, what do you know, we aren't even at the Medieval Warming high point yet.
Forgive me if i ignore things that i cant change while others use fear mongering to make a buck i.e Al "Jazeera" Gore.

http://www.c3headlin...atures-unusual/

[Little Fish]

Doug1o29, on 10 January 2013 - 02:06 PM, said:

According to NOAA, the US just had it's hottest, dryest year ever.  Of course, that doesn't count three worse droughts we know about from the tree-ring record.
Doug

the US is not the world, it is only 5% of the surface of the world so is not a measure of global conditions by any means, china has just had a very cold spell. The AMO cycle is ~70 years and we're at the peak of it. eyebrows would be raised if the USA wasn't experiencing what you mention given the 1930s were just as hot in the US.

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 10 January 2013 - 02:18 PM, said:

More drought + More floods = No change in average precipitation

Br Cornelius

the ipcc ar5 report doesn't share your opinions about "more droughts" and "more floods". we've been been over this.
http://www.unexplain...15#entry4614484

Edited by Little Fish, 10 January 2013 - 05:23 PM.

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 10 January 2013 - 03:40 PM, said:

The arguer is a hack and I am expected to waste 40 minuits of my life proving that point.
I based my argument on scientific papers - Little Fish produced an amateur blogger - need I say more.

you picked a few articles on a limited number of regions to show those regions were wetter, that's cherry picking. I showed you the global data which shows there has been a decline in precipitation since 1979. you attack tisdale, but the data is from noaa.

[Little Fish]

Capt Amerika, on 10 January 2013 - 04:37 PM, said:

What does Al "Jazeera" Gore have to say on the subject today?

he says you need to buy carbon credits, he owns the carbon credit company with goldman sachs (Blood and Gore plc) which issues the credits, so he says you should pay him money.

Edited by Little Fish, 10 January 2013 - 05:29 PM.

[keithisco]

Capt Amerika, on 10 January 2013 - 04:54 PM, said:

Every time i hear people yell the sky is falling over climate change it makes me cringe.
All data used to show how we are on the verge of death and destruction ends up being data mined from the past 200 years and you know what it shows?
Yep, its warming.
But what happens if we look back 1000 years?  You know, maybe check and see if warming and cooling doesn't just happen in cycles naturally?
Wow, what do you know, we aren't even at the Medieval Warming high point yet.
Forgive me if i ignore things that i cant change while others use fear mongering to make a buck i.e Al "Jazeera" Gore.

http://www.c3headlin...atures-unusual/

You keep making totally wrong statements Capt "Haliburton" Amerika!!:

"Despite substantial uncertainties, especially for the period prior to 1600 when data are scarce, the warmest period of the last 2,000 years prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100, but temperatures were probably between 0.1 °C and 0.2 °C below the 1961 to 1990 mean and significantly below the level shown by instrumental data after 1980.

The heterogeneous nature of climate during the Medieval Warm Period is illustrated by the wide spread of values exhibited by the individual records.Warmth in some regions appears to have matched or exceeded recent levels of warmth in these regions, but globally the Medieval Warm Period was cooler than recent global temperatures."

Edited by keithisco, 10 January 2013 - 05:32 PM.

[Wickian]

I don't put much stock in "tipping points".  We've been told for the last 30 years that we're "less than 10 years from the tipping point".  It kind of loses it's credibility when things like that happen.

[Br Cornelius]

Little Fish, on 10 January 2013 - 05:26 PM, said:

you picked a few articles on a limited number of regions to show those regions were wetter, that's cherry picking. I showed you the global data which shows there has been a decline in precipitation since 1979. you attack tisdale, but the data is from noaa.

There is a neat little graph which shows the same trends across all regions - do you want me to find it for you.
Here's a thought experiment for you - do you think the average rainfall for America is very useful in predicting the average rainfall in New Mexico ?

When you show some understanding of how stats actually works get back to me and we can discuss what trend actually mean.

Br Cornelius

Capt Amerika, on 10 January 2013 - 04:37 PM, said:

What does Al "Jazeera" Gore have to say on the subject today?

Why should the opinion of a politician matter when discussing science ?

Br Cornelius

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 10 January 2013 - 05:46 PM, said:

Why should the opinion of a politician matter when discussing science ?

when did you ever discuss science?

[Br Cornelius]

Little Fish, on 10 January 2013 - 05:50 PM, said:

when did you ever discuss science?

You never seem to bring any science up Little Fish.

Getting techy in your old age

Br Cornelius

[Br Cornelius]

Quote

SUMMIT COUNTY — Parts of the U.S. have seen clear statistical trends more extreme precipitation events in the past few decades, according to a new paper from the

American Meteorological Society

based on extensive research from federal and state agencies, as well as academic sources.

Increased water vapor in the atmosphere, as outlined by many climate change models, may be one of the key factors in the the observed changes, according to the researchers, who said that weren’t able to measure statistically significant changes in severe thunderstorms.

But for extreme precipitation, “there is strong evidence for a nationally-averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of events,” the paper concludes. About 76 percent of all stations reported increases in extreme precipitation.

The analysis also found the number of severe regional snowstorms since 1960 “was more than twice that of  the preceding 60 years.”

While the study identified a high degree of geographic variability, they found that all regions of the U.S. have experienced a greater than normal occurrence of extreme events since 1991. “The increase is statistically significant for the U.S. as a whole and the individual regions of the Midwest and Southeast,” according to the report.

The upward trend for the 1957-2010 period is especially apparent in the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, while the study found no significant extreme precipitation trends in the western U.S.

The report acknowledges the challenges of linking changes in extreme precipitation with global warming, but nevertheless references several papers that suggest a connection to human-caused changes in atmospheric composition — for example a paper showing that, “for the same annual or seasonal precipitation totals, warmer climates generate more extreme precipitation events compared to cooler climates.”

Here’s how the paper explains the possible links:

“This is consistent with water vapor being a critical limiting factor for the most extreme precipitation events. A number of analyses have documented significant positive trends in water vapor concentration and have linked these trends to human fingerprints in both changes of surface and atmospheric moisture.”

Several papers also document an upward trend in the number of extreme precipitation events in the vicinity of fronts associated with extra-tropical cyclones, but no evidence yet to show if there’s been an increase in the number and intensity of those fronts.

Overall, there appears to be compelling evidence that increased water vapor is a primary cause of extreme precipitation events, other factors, including changes in the characteristics of weather systems, changes in La Niña-El Niño patterns and even changes in land-use and irrigation patterns, including increased irrigation in the Great Plains.

http://summitcountyv...asingly-common/

How many papers reporting increasing trends in extreme precipitation and general precipitation would it take before you accepted it as more than cherry picking ?

Br Cornelius