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‘Get Over It’: Climate Change Is Happening


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#31    Doug1o29

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 02:03 PM

View PostMID, on 09 August 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:

Isn't it also amazing how common sense, and a genuine concern for the economic success of America is so often, by a certain non-conservative faction, spoken of as being ideological, rather than what it is:

Common Sense, and a path to the America we once had.

:-*
If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.

This is the situation we face with climate change.  We can take preventive action now while the job is still small and the costs low, or we can wait until the job is huge and the costs are astronomical.  Which makes the better economic sense?

We have already dithered away most of the time in which we could have been acting.  No matter how you cut it, we're in for a hard landing.

We might try rebuilding the electric grid.  That would cost money and set the denialists in an uproar.  But the existing grid is both obsolete and starting to break down.  We're going to have to replace it, anyway.  Why not build a new one before the old one breaks down and we have to get along without electricity for weeks at a time?  Rebuilding has the advantage of reduced friction and leakage, giving a 30% reduction in cost once the new one is in place.  So "costs" are deceptive.  Increased efficiency will defray a large part of the cost and allow wind systems to be integrated into the grid more effectively, further decreasing costs (Wind is already cheaper than coal or oil and is roughly comparable to natural gas in price.).  Temporarily use gas to generate base load and wind as the main energy source.  Convert to nuclear-generated base load as existing plants become senescent or obsolete.

Electric vehicles are just around the corner.  In another five years, improved batteries will give them a range of 300 to 500 miles and allow them to be recharged from a plug in your garage.  Hook that to the grid and you have wind-powered cars!  Mass-production will get the costs down in a few years and then we will see a move away from gasoline-powered vehicles.  The market will do that without government help.  I think Obama jumped the gun with his cash-for-clunkers program:  he didn't have a good replacement vehicle available, but in a few years they will be on the market and a cash-for-clunkers program would actually work.

TVA coal plants are actually being encouraged by poorly-thought-out regulations.  Change those regulations to make conversion more attractive.  There are good regulations and there are bad regulations.  This is a bad one.

There are lots of things we can do to head off climate change without increasing our out-of-pocket costs.  The myth of it being expensive is coming from obsolete industries trying to hang onto their profit margin for a few more years.  Once they convert, they'll be strong supporters of remedial action.

Who do you think will be the enrgy providers in a post-climate change world?  I think they'll have names like Shell, Exxon and Detroit Edison.
Doug

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#32    Br Cornelius

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 02:15 PM

Doug you are wasting your time with MID - he is a full blown denier who bases his denial on a dubious list of hundreds of climate skeptic scientists. He has never once engaged with the real climate science issues in any of his discussions. He is ideologically driven by a belief in Neo-liberal economics which will not be swayed by any point regarding preparation to save in the future. If the market doesn't do it - it ain't worth doing according to MID.

When I pointed out to him that oil reserves were in decline and would take us into a expensive energy future which would cripple the future economy - he had no comment simply believing that the market had deliverer the best of all possible worlds.

His only substantive comment in this thread could very easily have been cut and pasted from his comments on climate change 5yrs ago. That really should tell you all you need to know about his understanding of the issues.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 10 August 2012 - 02:18 PM.

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Robert Anton Wilson

#33    Doug1o29

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 02:28 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 10 August 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

Doug you are wasting your time with MID -
Maybe.  But other people read these threads too.

And good government has to take economic considerations into account.  It is the government that sets regulations and if some of those can be changed in the right direction, business will fix some of the problems without the need for new taxes or laws.

The Farm Service Agency could start requiring the use of carbon-sequestering tillage methods.  Simply require that crops not grown using these methods don't qualify for cost-sharing and other price-support payments.  US agriculture would convert in a single year - and save a few dollars for the tax payer at the same time.  With the right incentives, a free market can be made to work for the environment, not against it.  It's only when monopolies start taking over the markets that socialism becomes a better system than capitalism.  I'm all for saving capitalism - by limiting the influence of big business in the markets.

For MID -
I'd rather have the government telling me what to do than have a business telling me what to do.  At least the government is trying to act in my best interests - I can count on that not being the case with business.
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#34    Br Cornelius

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 02:54 PM

I agree entirely Doug. Business is the right ways to get the heavy lifting done - but it is entirely incapable of making long term strategic plans for the whole of society. That is why we need a strong interventionist government to set the incentives and define the regulatory framework.

It would horrify me to think that companies like Monsanto were in a position to define agricultural policy without constraint.

I also agree that I enter into these debates for the benefit of the silent audience.

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#35    MID

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 08:09 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 10 August 2012 - 02:28 PM, said:


For MID -
I'd rather have the government telling me what to do than have a business telling me what to do.  At least the government is trying to act in my best interests - I can count on that not being the case with business.
Doug

I'd rather neither told me what to do.

How is it that the government is acting in your best interest, and that business is acting against it?

I can't wait for that answer!


#36    questionmark

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 08:23 PM

View PostMID, on 10 August 2012 - 08:09 PM, said:

I'd rather neither told me what to do.

How is it that the government is acting in your best interest, and that business is acting against it?

I can't wait for that answer!

That depends, are we talking functional government or dysfunctional government (i.e. Washington)?

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#37    MID

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 10:29 PM

View PostBavarian Raven, on 10 August 2012 - 02:07 AM, said:

Climate change has always been happening - duh. It's the human contribution that is the question :D

Precisely.
And it's highly questionable...


#38    Br Cornelius

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 10:34 PM

View PostMID, on 10 August 2012 - 10:29 PM, said:

Precisely.
And it's highly questionable...

A bit of straw man that - since no climate scientist would deny that climate changes.
Unfortunately no reputable climate scientist can account for the current warming without invoking CO2 as a primary cause.

Br Cornelius

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#39    Arbenol

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 10:48 PM

Seems to me that this issue breaks down to a few clear points:

It's clear that atmospheric CO2 and temperature are linked. As one goes up, so does the other. Masses of evidence converges on this conclusion.

Over the last couple of centuries we've burnt massive amounts of hydrocarbons and continue to do so. We know this produces CO2 as a waste product. The increase in atmospheric CO2 has been measured. This increase is real and very difficult to refute.

Am I missing something, or is this something of a no-brainer?


#40    docyabut2

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Posted 11 August 2012 - 04:35 AM

It took just six months for a warm and sunny Europe to be engulfed in ice, according to new research


Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz23D1S4unh


#41    Br Cornelius

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Posted 11 August 2012 - 07:45 AM

View Postdocyabut2, on 11 August 2012 - 04:35 AM, said:

It took just six months for a warm and sunny Europe to be engulfed in ice, according to new research


Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz23D1S4unh
That article restates the widely held belief that rapid North atlantic  warming could cause an ice age. Unfortunately it would still be due to mans CO2 emissions. The paleclimatic record also suggest that rapid warming often proceeds an Ice age.


Br Cornelius

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#42    questionmark

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Posted 11 August 2012 - 09:38 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 11 August 2012 - 07:45 AM, said:

That article restates the widely held belief that rapid North atlantic  warming could cause an ice age. Unfortunately it would still be due to mans CO2 emissions. The paleclimatic record also suggest that rapid warming often proceeds an Ice age.


Br Cornelius

ornelius

Which is not surprising and all down to the same: The hotter it gets the less likely earth will be capable of supporting large animals. The less animals the less carbon, at the same time the vegetation increases as it is not decimated by feeding, leading to an additional reduction of carbon. The end of the story: it gets damn cold.

And before somebody sees this as the solution, let me remind you all that in as far as biology humans are but large animals.

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#43    Little Fish

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Posted 11 August 2012 - 09:47 AM

View PostArbenol68, on 10 August 2012 - 10:48 PM, said:

Seems to me that this issue breaks down to a few clear points:

It's clear that atmospheric CO2 and temperature are linked. As one goes up, so does the other. Masses of evidence converges on this conclusion.

Over the last couple of centuries we've burnt massive amounts of hydrocarbons and continue to do so. We know this produces CO2 as a waste product. The increase in atmospheric CO2 has been measured. This increase is real and very difficult to refute.

Am I missing something, or is this something of a no-brainer?
water absorption of co2 is inversely proportional to its temperature - cold water absorbs more co2, warm water releases co2.
http://www.newton.de...06/gen06306.htm

merely stating the relationship (like al gore and his zealous minions do) means very little and cannot be used as evidence that co2 causes warming.


#44    Br Cornelius

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Posted 11 August 2012 - 09:56 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 11 August 2012 - 09:47 AM, said:

water absorption of co2 is inversely proportional to its temperature - cold water absorbs more co2, warm water releases co2.
http://www.newton.de...06/gen06306.htm

merely stating the relationship (like al gore and his zealous minions do) means very little and cannot be used as evidence that co2 causes warming.

Still denying the basic science that CO2 is opaque to IR radiation and so traps heat. What you are describing is one of the many competing feedbacks. You crack me up Little Fish :w00t:

You even invoked the mighty all concurring Gore monster.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 11 August 2012 - 09:59 AM.

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#45    Little Fish

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Posted 11 August 2012 - 10:15 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 11 August 2012 - 09:56 AM, said:

Still denying the basic science that CO2 is opaque to IR radiation and so traps heat. What you are describing is one of the many competing feedbacks. You crack me up Little Fish :w00t:

You even invoked the mighty all concurring Gore monster.

Br Cornelius
you need to show there are net positive feedbacks, and then quantify them. the co2 warming on its own is between itty bitty and teeeny weeny, nothing to wet the bed about, so the statement is valid - merely stating al gores chicken-and egg co2-warming ice core graph is meaningless.





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