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Do you accept the reality of AGW ?


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Poll: Do you accept the science of anthropogenic climate change ? (50 member(s) have cast votes)

Do you accept the science of anthropogenic climate change ?

  1. Yes (31 votes [60.78%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 60.78%

  2. No (20 votes [39.22%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 39.22%

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#121    shrooma

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 12:28 AM

View Postshrooma, on 01 March 2013 - 12:28 AM, said:



View PostBr Cornelius, on 27 February 2013 - 11:20 PM, said:


View PostBr Cornelius, on 27 February 2013 - 11:20 PM, said:



Hey Little Fish, I told you how i am going to play the game from now on - if you don't like it then buzz off

The simple fact is, I don't like you,

It gets boring.
.
yes.
it does.
this isn't 'debate'. it's rude, ignorant, arrogance.
seriously, why pander to an egotistical racist, who spends half his time slating the english, and the other half copy/pasting things he found on the internet like he's figured it out for himself? there's a name for a$$holes who
insult people with differing viewpoints br, see if you can guess what it is?
and please, don't try responding with your usual condescention, i'm above it.
you do yourself no favours whatsoever with your lousy attitude, and you lose whatever modicum of respect people have for you by being abusive towards everyone who doesn't agree with you.
debate??
pfft!
i've seen week-old cheeses with more maturity.

Edited by shrooma, 01 March 2013 - 12:34 AM.

sometimes, your signature is worth nothing at all.
.

#122    shrooma

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 12:42 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 27 February 2013 - 11:20 PM, said:



I am quite capable of disagreeing with someone and ending up shaking hands over the disagreement
.
yeah.
right.

sometimes, your signature is worth nothing at all.
.

#123    Br Cornelius

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 09:24 AM

View Postshrooma, on 01 March 2013 - 12:28 AM, said:

.
yes.
it does.
this isn't 'debate'. it's rude, ignorant, arrogance.
seriously, why pander to an egotistical racist, who spends half his time slating the english, and the other half copy/pasting things he found on the internet like he's figured it out for himself? there's a name for a$$holes who
insult people with differing viewpoints br, see if you can guess what it is?
and please, don't try responding with your usual condescention, i'm above it.
you do yourself no favours whatsoever with your lousy attitude, and you lose whatever modicum of respect people have for you by being abusive towards everyone who doesn't agree with you.
debate??
pfft!
i've seen week-old cheeses with more maturity.
I am English so i am entitled. I left England bacause I didn't like the direction the country is going in and have keenly observed the continued decline.

You should try engaging in a debate with Little Fish, as I have for five years.
You should also try to understand how you support an argument with credible references. Expressing opinions without evidence isn't productive since we can all have opinions no matter how unreal they might be. Conceding that you have been wrong on a point is how debate procedes and how you learn. if you never (ever) concede your position is flawed then you are not there to learn.

You earn respect through your deeds and that is why I cannot respect Little Fish.


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 01 March 2013 - 09:37 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#124    Br Cornelius

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 09:26 AM

View Postshrooma, on 01 March 2013 - 12:42 AM, said:

.
yeah.
right.
Yes I am. Try getting Little Fish to concede any point - even when the evidence is totally against him. You will realize he isn't worth shaking hands with.

You should be careful who you defend - wait until you have walked in my shoes for five years.

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#125    Br Cornelius

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 09:31 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 01 March 2013 - 12:01 AM, said:

that's false, i never claimed that.
i don't think you understand that CAGW or dangerous AGW requires a strong feedback, that's what the debate is about. the climate models have an in built strong feedback, they are not calculated, they are just assumed, which is why those climate models produce unrealistic and falsified projections.


The observed warming to the forcing is the basis for saying the feedbacks are strong.

Quote

its the wrong question, it should be "dangerous AGW" not AGW.
I can heat the oceans by dropping a lit cigarette off the side of a boat, but there is no need to worry about a climate response to the cigarette

Your expressed position is that AGW is not real and it is a plot to return us to a feudal social state - so your not been consistent here.

The concern is based on the observed warming which has already taken place not on some nebulous unmeasured warming. Your cigarette analogue is meaningless.


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 01 March 2013 - 09:51 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#126    shrooma

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 09:58 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 01 March 2013 - 09:24 AM, said:


You earn respect through your deeds and that is why I cannot respect Little Fish.

.
and you think that being abusive and rude is a way to garner respect then do you br?
it isn't.
it just makes you look boorish and petty.
no matter how right you may be in your argument, talking to people like they're sh!t does you no favours whatsoever, so curb the insults eh, this isn't a playground.
no-one likes arrogance. being english, you should understand that.

sometimes, your signature is worth nothing at all.
.

#127    Br Cornelius

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:13 AM

View Postshrooma, on 01 March 2013 - 09:58 AM, said:

.
and you think that being abusive and rude is a way to garner respect then do you br?
it isn't.
it just makes you look boorish and petty.
no matter how right you may be in your argument, talking to people like they're sh!t does you no favours whatsoever, so curb the insults eh, this isn't a playground.
no-one likes arrogance. being english, you should understand that.

If you understood the history, then you might think differently. I encourage you to review some of Little Fishes debates and to draw your own conclusions about where you would willingly enter into a discussion with him. As I said, people don't debate with him anymore - for a reason.
Doug is another expert in this field who has posted in this thread, a researcher and an educator, and I have seen Little Fish drive him to similar expressions - which is quite some achievement.

As I said, its up to you who you choose to criticize or defend, but I think you are mistaken in your assessment that Little Fish is simply defending a reasonable position, he is a highly motivated Conspiracy Theorist who is capable of denying any "fact" which doesn't support his carefully crafted view that there is an elite out to kill us and return us to feudal servitude. Climate change is simply a brick in the wall he builds around himself.

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#128    Br Cornelius

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:19 AM

More evidence that the energy imbalance is real;

Quote

Abstract. Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during the 6-yr period 2005–2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be −1.6 ± 0.3 W m−2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade.

http://www.atmos-che...13421-2011.html

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#129    skookum

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:22 AM

Maybe, probably, I am not entirely convinced.

This is going to sound so selfish but I have come to a point I don't really care anymore.  I will have long gone the way of the Dodo before anything is likely to kill us.   I have absolutely no desire to return to dark ages style living.  

I like eating meat, I like having the freedom of my car, I like my performance car with it's 3.0 litre engine, I like being able to get on a plane and visit places all over the world.  The list is endless yet when you get down to the nitty gritty of how to reverse climate change the answers are always the same.  Governments think the answer is tax and lets be honest we have no viable option for fossil fuels, unless your a conspiracy nut who believes the oil companies bought and destroyed them all.

I lived in a so called environmentally friendly house for 3 years, they were built in West Sussex with a Government grant and won numerous awards.  They were so strict on what you could and couldn't do, we could only paint the walls with one type of paint.  

Despite wind turbines, solar heating and electricity my bills were no cheaper than any other house.  In fact the solar water heating broke down during the height of summer and bill wise we didn't even know.  It was picked up at an annual service.  5 years after completion the owners are now saying the houses may need to be completely overhauled in the next 3 years and possibly even torn down in 15.  The sustained wood construction is rotting at an alarming rate.  The non oil based coatings simply washed away during a storm and gave the appearance the house was bleeding.  The high efficiency heating systems have proved to be unreliable and difficult to fix.  Any electricity that is saved by the top rated appliances is used by the air circulation system that is essential to protect the wood frame.  When you weigh up they were 3 times more difficult to build and took 3 times longer, they now need extensive renovation which will take up more resources and high polluting builders equipment.

Another study I remember was about train travel.  I can't remember the exact circumstances but a study was done on the pollution caused by a train travelling from London to Birmingham.  Apparently if every passenger on the train had got out and done the trip in an Audi A4, it would have been more economical and less polluting.

When some truly viable solutions are available I may change the way I live my life and become less selfish.

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#130    Br Cornelius

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:29 AM

View Postskookum, on 01 March 2013 - 10:22 AM, said:

Maybe, probably, I am not entirely convinced.

This is going to sound so selfish but I have come to a point I don't really care anymore.  I will have long gone the way of the Dodo before anything is likely to kill us.   I have absolutely no desire to return to dark ages style living.  

I like eating meat, I like having the freedom of my car, I like my performance car with it's 3.0 litre engine, I like being able to get on a plane and visit places all over the world.  The list is endless yet when you get down to the nitty gritty of how to reverse climate change the answers are always the same.  Governments think the answer is tax and lets be honest we have no viable option for fossil fuels, unless your a conspiracy nut who believes the oil companies bought and destroyed them all.

I lived in a so called environmentally friendly house for 3 years, they were built in West Sussex with a Government grant and won numerous awards.  They were so strict on what you could and couldn't do, we could only paint the walls with one type of paint.  

Despite wind turbines, solar heating and electricity my bills were no cheaper than any other house.  In fact the solar water heating broke down during the height of summer and bill wise we didn't even know.  It was picked up at an annual service.  5 years after completion the owners are now saying the houses may need to be completely overhauled in the next 3 years and possibly even torn down in 15.  The sustained wood construction is rotting at an alarming rate.  The non oil based coatings simply washed away during a storm and gave the appearance the house was bleeding.  The high efficiency heating systems have proved to be unreliable and difficult to fix.  Any electricity that is saved by the top rated appliances is used by the air circulation system that is essential to protect the wood frame.  When you weigh up they were 3 times more difficult to build and took 3 times longer, they now need extensive renovation which will take up more resources and high polluting builders equipment.

Another study I remember was about train travel.  I can't remember the exact circumstances but a study was done on the pollution caused by a train travelling from London to Birmingham.  Apparently if every passenger on the train had got out and done the trip in an Audi A4, it would have been more economical and less polluting.

When some truly viable solutions are available I may change the way I live my life and become less selfish.
I hear what you are saying on the house. I studied the whole concept of "Passivhause" building as part of my degree. I would never build such a house, far to technology dependent and far to vulnerable to intercostinel damp. A bad idea unless built to very high specification in a factory.
However there are ways of building which are low tech and which perform entirely better on a day to day basis, I am thinking of earth houses, hempcrete and straw bale. They all have the essential thermal inertia which is absent from high tech passivhaus' and can readily be heated with a single simple woodstove using sustainable coppiced wood.

The problem I have with your overall analysis though is that we may not have the choice to do nothing. Oil is the driver of our civilization and it has reached peak production. It has at least doubled in real cost over the last 5years and that has knocked the stuffing out of many of the things we take for granted. There are no magic bullets for this one, so we either transition to a sustainable future by choice or we accept that many of the luxury things we currently take for granted will slip out of reach of most normal people. I think that is a worse outcome than at least trying to make the monumental efforts needed to transition into a system that offers a viable future.

I suspect that train study was probably paid for by Audi :whistle:

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 01 March 2013 - 10:41 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#131    skookum

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 11:00 AM

There will never be a single answer to oil, however I believe will have to use several options which will have to be developed further and not all that popular environmentally.  The UK has a massive reserve of coal which we don't use, however China builds a coal power station  every week is it?

One of the Scandinavian countries is powering it's trains on fuel produced from cattle entrails.  Again animal farming is seen as polluting.  Fuel can be grown but could never cover are total requirements we need.  Algae derived bio-fuel is looking increasingly promising however.

Nuclear power is shunned upon so that is unlikely.  

I certainly wouldn't count on the end of oil being the end of pollution.  In fact it will probably be the complete opposite as we are forced into less efficient ways.  Their will certainly be obstacles and sacrifices but it won't be the magic wand to throw us into a sustained lifestyle.

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#132    Little Fish

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 01:47 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 01 March 2013 - 09:31 AM, said:

The observed warming to the forcing is the basis for saying the feedbacks are strong.
no, that is a non sequitur. you have handwaved the feedback amplification issue.
a negative feedback is a dampening effect, and not (as you imply) a canceling out or a net cooling. a positive feedback is an amplification of a forcing. i don't think you understand this.
did you watch the video i posted? it explains it very clearly.

Quote

Your expressed position is that AGW is not real and it is a plot to return us to a feudal social state - so your not been consistent here.
my position has always been that the science does not support catastrophic agw. you have a disposition to misunderstand those that disagree with you, perhaps deliberately.

Quote

The concern is based on the observed warming which has already taken place not on some nebulous unmeasured warming. Your cigarette analogue is meaningless.
the cigarette analogy is not meaningless, it makes the point precisely.
why should i care if the oceans have warmed 0.09c over the last 50 years?
iirc that translates to 0.5 w/m2, which means the feedback is negative, which means there is nothing to worry about. to recap - you and the alarmists need the feedback to be strongly positive to support your position.
my question has still not been answered - "present some scientific evidence that burning fossil fuels can change climate to any degree worth fussing about."

and you should heed Marcus Tullius Cicero's wisdom - "When you have no basis for argument, abuse the plaintiff"


#133    Doug1o29

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 01:51 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 27 February 2013 - 11:20 PM, said:

Hey Little Fish, I told you how i am going to play the game from now on - if you don't like it then buzz off.
Meanwhile its important to establish the credibility of you opponent before entering into any discussion.
Chill out, Bro.  This is UM!  Insults and flame baiting are a standard part of the "debating" strategy here:  make the other guy mad so he quits thinking.  I've been on sites where the kind of stuff you see here would get one banned for life.  The tactic worked quite well on me until I figured out what was going on.

Little Fish is not interested in what is actually happening with climate.  Her entire thing is antagonizing people.  All you have to do is refuse to take the bait.  I know it's sometimes tough and sometimes I still fall into the trap.

Face it:  nothing you can do, say or post are going to make a believer out of Little Fish.  Facts are irrelevant to her.
Doug

Edited by Doug1o29, 01 March 2013 - 01:52 PM.

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#134    Frank Merton

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 02:05 PM

It's funny.  Everyone wringing their hands in woe and the world never had it so good.  I think maybe its the press and the emphasis on negatives and the fact that we learn about famines that in the past would have gone unnoticed.

I walk down to the local market and it is loaded with all sorts of vegetables and fruits and seafood and specialties for people to eat, plus cut flowers and trinkets and jewelry and mobi-phones that take pictures and scarves and hats and motorbike helmets and all sorts of baby things and clothes from all over and live birds and aquarium fishes and racks of herbs and pills and spices plus about a dozen different coffees and teas and maybe thirty different varieties of rice.  This is Vietnam -- that just forty years ago suffered a devastating war and has received very little foreign aid.


#135    Little Fish

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 02:13 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 01 March 2013 - 10:19 AM, said:

More evidence that the energy imbalance is real;



http://www.atmos-che...13421-2011.html

Br Cornelius
and how much will the oceans warm by the year 2100 if that paper is correct?

0.1 Celcius.

at that rate it will take 600 years to warm 1 degree by which time the oil and co2 will probably be long gone.





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