You didn't even factor in the defectors of the military in the case of a civil war. Plus, don't underestimate some of the 'toys' people have.
I don't know why everybody keeps on comparing apples with pears here. If I were a former Vietcong fighter I would feel offended to be compared with an average overweight and short of breath American gun owner that tries to play Django taking on the government in a totally uncoordinated fashion. I know, I know, founding fathers, continental army and all that, but show me one of them grossly overweight and incapable of climbing ten flights of stairs without turning blue in the face.
Guys, take a look in the mirror before trying to act like Pancho Villa.