Weaker Sun Could Slow Global Warming

[Still Waters]

A reduction of heat from the sun, similar to levels last felt around 300 years ago, could help slow warming in the eastern section of the United States and Europe. It would however not be enough to do so on a global scale, according to a new study in the United Kingdom.

Scientists at the British Met Office Hadley Center and several other organizations reported that the sun has been highly active in the past several decades. They believe that its activity will nevertheless be lessened by as much as 20 percent over the next 40 years in a phenomenon known as grand solar minimum.

http://www.techtimes...-and-europe.htm

[Doug1029]

I love the title of this thread: "Weaker Sun Could Slow Global Warming (In USA and Europe)."

Is it GLOBAL warming or is it the USA and Europe? They're not the same. Just shows how far we have to go in educating folks who write headlines.

Doug

[ChrLzs]

Apart from that, they are talking about a potential reduction in sunspot activity and some related increases in UV, NOT a 20% reduction in the heat output!

Here's the abstract (with my emphasis on some rather important words..):

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

from http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html

[Doug1029]

The solar cycle does correlate with global temps, but it's a pretty weak correlation. The only way we're going to see noticeable cooling is if other factors stay the same. And "All else is never equal."

Doug

[Leonardo]

So, are we going to see the grand solar minimum aspect of the solar cycle being used as an (unfounded) argument against taking steps to curb AGW?

I know I wouldn't bet against it.

[Ashotep]

Its been cooler here the last couple of years, maybe three. Winters are becoming much colder, summers still warm but cooler, yet the western part of the US is having record temps and droughts, Siberia warmer to the point they are having methane gas explosions. Something is going on, gulf stream slowing down, melting of the Arctic and Greenland, don't know but our weather has been unusual.