Climate getting more extreme & unpredictable

[Guest]

Oxfam reports extreme flooding events have nearly tripled

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/extreme-weather-flooding-droughts-fires

Br Cornelius

[Little Fish]

no conflict of interest there then

/sarcasm

[Von Bismarck]

Another evidence that the weather is getting more extreme.

Just like this one.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110607102626.htm

Extreme examples of weather have not been isolated to tornadoes. Heat waves, blizzards and severe storms have been increasingly more frequent or more severe according to U.S. data, Harrington said. These changes can be attributed to changes in the climate system

Edited June 16, 2011 by BFB

[Little Fish]

Another evidence that the weather is getting more extreme

Just like this one.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110607102626.htm

looks like propaganda to me,

here is the data from NOAA, why doesn't that geography academic check the data.

"atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871.”. In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict"

http://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2011/02/11/noaa-no-evidence-that-weather-is-becoming-more-extreme/

[Guest]

looks like propaganda to me,

here is the data from NOAA, why doesn't that geography academic check the data.

"atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871.”. In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict"

http://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2011/02/11/noaa-no-evidence-that-weather-is-becoming-more-extreme/

The resolution of that dataset is not sufficient to draw firm conclusions about specific anomalous weather events. It is very much an infant dataset which requires much more data to be truly useful as a comparison tool for actual weather. If you actually read the conclusion of the paper - it doesn't even set out to map actual weather events.

Br Cornelius

[Little Fish]

The resolution of that dataset is not sufficient to draw firm conclusions about specific anomalous weather events. It is very much an infant dataset which requires much more data to be truly useful as a comparison tool for actual weather. If you actually read the conclusion of the paper - it doesn't even set out to map actual weather events.

Br Cornelius

the noaa graph shows strong to violent tornadoes declining over the last 60 years, yet the guy in BFB's link says that they are increasing.

Edited June 16, 2011 by Little Fish

[Little Fish]

no evidence of hurricanes increasing over the last 110 years.

[stevewinn]

what a load of rubbish, tell me when have we not had extreme and unpredictable weather? i haven't read the link, But i bet they list every known weather event as an example of this unpredictable and extreme weather, talk about covering every base.

[Little Fish]

New peer reviewed study: no change in short term North Atlantic tropical cyclones

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/16/new-peer-reviewed-study-surge-in-north-atlantic-hurricanes-due-to-better-detectors-not-climate-change/

"The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/change or with changes in observing systems. By using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century-scale record of short-lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long-term secular increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days."

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD015493.shtml

all aboard the crazy train climate change wagon

[Little Fish]

new peer reviewed study shows no increase in winter rainfall in the past 105 years

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/17/trees-show-no-rainfall-pattern-in-last-century/#more-41840

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD015325.shtml

two wheels on my wagon...

[Wookietim]

looks like propaganda to me,

here is the data from NOAA, why doesn't that geography academic check the data.

"atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871.”. In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict"

http://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2011/02/11/noaa-no-evidence-that-weather-is-becoming-more-extreme/

But that graph only measures the number of the storms - not the severity.

That is like saying that 9/11 wasn't all that bad since there was only one of them in 2001...

[Guest]

new peer reviewed study shows no increase in winter rainfall in the past 105 years

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/17/trees-show-no-rainfall-pattern-in-last-century/#more-41840

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JD015325.shtml

two wheels on my wagon...

And yet they come in sudden deluges and cause more floods. The overall amount of rainfall may not have changed - but its effects have.

Br Cornelius

But that graph only measures the number of the storms - not the severity.

That is like saying that 9/11 wasn't all that bad since there was only one of them in 2001...

Welcome to Little Fishes selective world of cherry picking the bits he likes.

Br Cornelius

[Wookietim]

And yet they come in sudden deluges and cause more floods. The overall amount of rainfall may not have changed - but its effects have.

Br Cornelius

It might also be important to mention that one of the worries about climate change is not just in overall rainfall amounts... It is where that rainfall comes down. After all, if the American midwest starts to get less rainfall and what normally falls there moves somewhere else, that is pretty significant... after all, if the place where the most food is grown right now becomes less capable of growing food, then either we have to scramble to change where food is grown, expect to pay more for food, or spend lots of money to bring the water to those areas... None of which are desirable, even if the rainfall is exactly the same overall.

[Guest]

Trends in natural disasters as reported by Oxfam (the people on the front line;

Disaster trends

The total number of natural disasters worldwide now averages 400–500 a year, up from an average of 125 in the early 1980s.17 The number of climate-related disasters, particularly floods and storms, is rising far faster than the number of geological disasters, such as earthquakes. Between 1980 and 2006, the number of floods and cyclones quadrupled from 60 to 240 a year while the number of earthquakes remained approximately the same, at around 20 a year. In 2007 the Oxfam International family of agencies responded to floods or storms in more than 30 countries.

.......

According to Maarten van Aalst of the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre in the Netherlands, climate change is behind both more unique events and more multiple events.22 Unique events are those – such as storms, floods, or heatwaves – that are highly unusual in a region. ’These are of great concern as governments and communities are typically unprepared for them and only have a limited capacity to handle them’, says van Aalst. Multiple events refer to situations where one area is affected by a series of, often different, disasters in a relatively short period of time23. Both types of experience strain the coping capacities of governments and communities.

Heatwaves and intense rainfall

Two types of hazard are particularly noticeable. First, heat waves. In line with climate observations and predictions, the incidence of heatwaves has increased more than five-fold over the past 20 years, from 29 in 1987–1996 to 76 in 1997–2006.24 In Tajikistan, for instance, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, agronomist Mirzokhonova Munavara told Oxfam workers: ‘There has been a change in climate in the last 15 years. It gets extremely hot and then extremely cold. People are struggling because we have to adapt and we do not have the rain at times to water our land. The soil has become dry and crops have changed in quality and in colour. We have irrigation channels but no water. We cannot leave this village as we have nowhere to go and no money to leave. God has given us this weather so we will need to learn how to adapt, change our seeds so that we can continue to work and grow food’.

The second is a trend towards more concentrated and more intense rainfall, causing or exacerbating flooding in countries as far apart as the UK, Viet Nam, South Africa, Mexico, and India.25 For example, Manish Kumar Agrawal, Oxfam Programme Officer in Ahmedabad, reported: ’For the last three years, one trend which is coming up very clearly is that of very heavy rain in a very short duration (e.g. 500–600mm in just 24 hours). The number of such places affected is also increasing. For example, this year five districts of North Gujarat, which are considered as drought-prone, received very heavy rainfall (ranging from 200–550mm in just 24 hours). The same phenomenon is happening in drought-prone Rajasthan.26’

http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/downloads/bp108_weather_alert.pdf

Since then there has been the Pakistani flood event and the Australian flood event. The Pkistania event would fit the class of a 100yr flood.

The lower states of America are under sever flood stress as we speak.

Nothing unusual there then.

Br Cornelius

Edited June 17, 2011 by Guest

[oly]

Trends in natural disasters as reported by Oxfam (the people on the front line;

Br Cornelius

Natural? You sure? Oxfam need disasters to survive. Like other charities, they aren't impartial.

[Guest]

Natural? You sure? Oxfam need disasters to survive. Like other charities, they aren't impartial.

I don't think theres any concern about Oxfam going out of business any time soon.

If you actually read the paper you will see that they do not note any upward trend in geological disasters - if your logic is correct why are they not manipulating those figures.

Br Cornelius

[oly]

Oxfam reports extreme flooding events have nearly tripled

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/extreme-weather-flooding-droughts-fires

Br Cornelius

You're contradicting yourself

[Guest]

You're contradicting yourself

I am not sure how - can you explain.

Br Cornelius

[oly]

I am not sure how - can you explain.

Br Cornelius

Oxfam says flooding tripled, yet don't note any upward trend.

[farandaway]

Here's an interesting link from NOAA:

NOAA Paleoclimatology

[ninjadude]

new peer reviewed study shows no increase in winter rainfall in the past 105 years

in one small region of the US. Contrary to popular belief, the US is not the WORLD.

[Guest]

Oxfam says flooding tripled, yet don't note any upward trend.

Earthquakes and volcanoes show no upward trend. Flooding has a strong upward trend.

This is what I said (geological disaster = earthquake/volcano), and this is what oxfam state.

Br Cornelius

[oly]

Earthquakes and volcanoes show no upward trend. Flooding has a strong upward trend.

This is what I said (geological disaster = earthquake/volcano), and this is what oxfam state.

Br Cornelius

Oh ye, sorry didn't read it properly!

[stevewinn]

Earthquakes and volcanoes show no upward trend. Flooding has a strong upward trend.

This is what I said (geological disaster = earthquake/volcano), and this is what oxfam state.

Br Cornelius

flooding as a strong upward trend what does that mean? in the UK in the last 30 years 20% of new homes have been built on floodplains. multiply this all over the world and the trend is only going one way UP.

[Guest]

flooding as a strong upward trend what does that mean? in the UK in the last 30 years 20% of new homes have been built on floodplains. multiply this all over the world and the trend is only going one way UP.

I think you misunderstand what constitutes a disaster to Oxfam.

Br Cornelius