Japan,US losing patience with Chinese

[+and-then]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/china-tests-japanese-and-us-patience?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20130226&utm_term=gweekly&utm_content=readmore&elq=5985845eb2f241d8b1a7cc615cb62e88

In depth piece on the Chinese and their actions against Japan and the US.

[Coffey]

I wonder what the US would do thoug, if China goes on a full on warpath.

If the US backs Japan they lose so much money form China.

If the US back China they break their treaty/contract with Japan and Japan can start pumping out military hardware at an insane rate, they could be battle ready in months.

Hard choise for the US. Obviously if it goes that far. I doubt it would.

[Frank Merton]

One thing that the Chinese should have learned from the Korean War is that the Japanese archipelago can serve as a huge aircraft carrier for the US Navy if the Japanese are inclined to allow it, complete with no need for support vessels.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

China's just sabre rattling.

They want to e taken seriously as a global player, add to that they culturally hate the Japanese (think India and Pakistan ithout the ability to play nicely in cricket)

[Space Commander Travis]

I wonder what the US would do thoug, if China goes on a full on warpath.

If the US backs Japan they lose so much money form China.

If the US back China they break their treaty/contract with Japan and Japan can start pumping out military hardware at an insane rate, they could be battle ready in months.

Hard choise for the US. Obviously if it goes that far. I doubt it would.

if the US backs Japan? The US might repudiate one of the most important allies they've had since 1945 if the Chinese try to extort them?

[Frank Merton]

One thing to keep in mind is that the government in China, while a one-party state and secretive as all get-out, is not a tyranny. The officials are selected by established procedures for fixed terms, and there is no personality cult going on (at least hardly any). The Party is nowadays composed of far more diverse individuals than the revolutionary types of the past -- better educated, more global oriented, more willing to try things to see if they work. This is an ongoing evolution that is fragile and could reverse at any time, but probably won't.

I'm not saying I see China evolving into a multi-party democracy. That would probably require major and undesirable turmoil, and would not necessarily improve China's behavior, nor is it, from a philosophical perspective, necessarily the best form of government for a country like China.

Therefore, as with all large nations, we can expect it to step out of bounds sometimes, but overall the chances of harmony between it and the rest of the world seem great.

[Space Commander Travis]

I'm not saying I see China evolving into a multi-party democracy. That would probably require major and undesirable turmoil, and would not necessarily improve China's behavior, nor is it, from a philosophical perspective, necessarily the best form of government for a country like China.

And doesn't necessarily improve the behaviour of Western "Democracies", either.

[DarkHunter]

Nothing will come of this, despite China's growing economy and military they are no where near ready to fight the US directly.

If a war would occur it would be over within 2 months, China simply lacks the navy and air force to protect themselves from the US. I doubt the US would even bother with a ground invasion, all the US would have to do is attack China's food production and starve them out of the war which wouldn't take long. We even developed weaponized varies forms of blight to be user against the USSR and China during the cold war to attack their food supplies and starve them out of a war if it would of occurred.

As for losing money, this could potentially solve most if not all of the US debt problems, if we would go to war with China and win does anyone here honestly think we would pay them back on the debt we owe them. There would be immediate problems from losing the imports from China but because we would probably shift to a war time economy and have rationing anyway at the start the effect would more then likely be minimal and would for the most part be unnoticed by the average citizen. Once everything settled back down you would have most if not all of the American debt removed and a Chinese government put into place that more then likely would be extremely friendly to US interest.

[AsteroidX]

China is sabre rattling yes. But they do have a longer term goal and the biggest piece of it happened when our Autz friends sold off 90% of there natural resource companies to the Chinese. New Zealand is next.

[ExpandMyMind]

Nothing will come of this, despite China's growing economy and military they are no where near ready to fight the US directly.

If a war would occur it would be over within 2 months, China simply lacks the navy and air force to protect themselves from the US. I doubt the US would even bother with a ground invasion, all the US would have to do is attack China's food production and starve them out of the war which wouldn't take long. We even developed weaponized varies forms of blight to be user against the USSR and China during the cold war to attack their food supplies and starve them out of a war if it would of occurred.

As for losing money, this could potentially solve most if not all of the US debt problems, if we would go to war with China and win does anyone here honestly think we would pay them back on the debt we owe them. There would be immediate problems from losing the imports from China but because we would probably shift to a war time economy and have rationing anyway at the start the effect would more then likely be minimal and would for the most part be unnoticed by the average citizen. Once everything settled back down you would have most if not all of the American debt removed and a Chinese government put into place that more then likely would be extremely friendly to US interest.

The article is primarily about Japanese and Chinese tensions, not about the U.S. and China.

But with regards to your analysis: China does have nukes, we need to remember. We haven't seen two countries with nuclear weapons in open, direct conflict, so it is impossible to say definitively whether or not the stronger side on paper would actually win such a war (though it does still look likely that the U.S. would prevail).

[Coffey]

Nothing will come of this, despite China's growing economy and military they are no where near ready to fight the US directly.

If a war would occur it would be over within 2 months, China simply lacks the navy and air force to protect themselves from the US. I doubt the US would even bother with a ground invasion, all the US would have to do is attack China's food production and starve them out of the war which wouldn't take long. We even developed weaponized varies forms of blight to be user against the USSR and China during the cold war to attack their food supplies and starve them out of a war if it would of occurred.

As for losing money, this could potentially solve most if not all of the US debt problems, if we would go to war with China and win does anyone here honestly think we would pay them back on the debt we owe them. There would be immediate problems from losing the imports from China but because we would probably shift to a war time economy and have rationing anyway at the start the effect would more then likely be minimal and would for the most part be unnoticed by the average citizen. Once everything settled back down you would have most if not all of the American debt removed and a Chinese government put into place that more then likely would be extremely friendly to US interest.

Where do you think most things the US has comes from? lol

Edited February 26, 2013 by Coffey

[Space Commander Travis]

Considering that China could immobilise the U.S. Military simply by calling in what the U.S. owes them, so there' wouldn't be enough in the bank to provide a tank of gas for a Humvee, I rather doubt that they'd be foolish enough to bite the hand that owes them so much by starting anything.

[ExpandMyMind]

Considering that China could immobilise the U.S. Military simply by calling in what the U.S. owes them, so there' wouldn't be enough in the bank to provide a tank of gas for a Humvee, I rather doubt that they'd be foolish enough to bite the hand that owes them so much by starting anything.

Which is probably the same reason Saudi Arabia is untouchable.

[Coffey]

Which is probably the same reason Saudi Arabia is untouchable.

They made a deal with Saudi to give protection if they only sell their oil for the dollar. (I think that's correct)

Is there any reason they would want war with Saudi Arabia?

[ExpandMyMind]

They made a deal with Saudi to give protection if they only sell their oil for the dollar. (I think that's correct)

Is there any reason they would want war with Saudi Arabia?

Yeah, that seems to be a deciding factor in the survival of oil rich countries. If you don't deal in U.S. $ then you're screwed.

I wasn't simply referring to war by using the term 'untouchable', by the way. Saudi Arabia has one of the worst human rights records in the World, and the U.S. puts no pressure on them to change (and even blocks it in some respects). SA have a free reign to do whatever they want, at least within their own borders.

[Coffey]

Yeah, that seems to be a deciding factor in the survival of oil rich countries. If you don't deal in U.S. $ then you're screwed.

I wasn't simply referring to war by using the term 'untouchable', by the way. Saudi Arabia has one of the worst human rights records in the World, and the U.S. puts no pressure on them to change (and even blocks it in some respects). SA have a free reign to do whatever they want, at least within their own borders.

Oh I get ya, thought you knew something i didn't and I wanted to know. lol

[DarkHunter]

Coffey it doesn't matter that we get good from China, all of our military equipment is either produced in the US or allies of the US. While the average consumer would lose consumer goods in the short term, they wouldn't even notice because a war time economy would more then likely be called into effect and that would include severe rationing of just about everything for the duration of the war so no one would notice the lack of consumer goods.

As for anyone saying that China calling in our debt would cripple us, that is simply the worst argument for China winning a war that I have ever heard. I don't get why people think just because we owe China so much that we couldn't fight them, we got the raw resources that we need and the ability to use them to produce what we need to fight a war, we don't actually need the money itself to fight a war. China calling in our debt would cause a war between China and US. Just think about this analogy, two people are about to get into a fight, one is clearly stronger then the other one but owes the other one a ton of money. So at the start of the fight the one who controls the debt says I am going to make you pay me back now, do you honestly think the other guy is just going to give up because of that, or do you think he will do everything he can to win the fight so he doesn't have to pay off the debt.

I would also like to point out when the US entered into World War 2, we did not have anywhere near the money it cost to fight that war, but because we had the resources and the ability to use them we where still able to fight.

While the article is about Japanese and Chinese tensions, any sign of problems brings the US into this because of the alliance with Japan.

[Orcseeker]

If this ever happened it would be interesting to see the laws change in the US (ie. hemp becoming legal for production).

[Space Commander Travis]

They made a deal with Saudi to give protection if they only sell their oil for the dollar. (I think that's correct)

Is there any reason they would want war with Saudi Arabia?

Well, if you look at where the great majority of the 9/11 hijackers came from ...

[Frank Merton]

The things that China needs to do to show it is a mature nation:

1. Get out of Tibet. That's right: just pull the army out.

2. Announce that whether Taiwan wants to be part of China or not is up to the Taiwanese to be decided some time in the distant future. In the meantime sponsor Taiwan for membership in the UN.

3. Cut its army to a size that is non-threatening.

4. Stop all these minor border tiffs and not claim islands it has no right to.

The effect on the world would be electric.

[Coffey]

Well, if you look at where the great majority of the 9/11 hijackers came from ...

Well yeah, but we're not allowed to mention that...lol

[Yamato]

Coffey it doesn't matter that we get good from China, all of our military equipment is either produced in the US or allies of the US. While the average consumer would lose consumer goods in the short term, they wouldn't even notice because a war time economy would more then likely be called into effect and that would include severe rationing of just about everything for the duration of the war so no one would notice the lack of consumer goods.

As for anyone saying that China calling in our debt would cripple us, that is simply the worst argument for China winning a war that I have ever heard. I don't get why people think just because we owe China so much that we couldn't fight them, we got the raw resources that we need and the ability to use them to produce what we need to fight a war, we don't actually need the money itself to fight a war. China calling in our debt would cause a war between China and US. Just think about this analogy, two people are about to get into a fight, one is clearly stronger then the other one but owes the other one a ton of money. So at the start of the fight the one who controls the debt says I am going to make you pay me back now, do you honestly think the other guy is just going to give up because of that, or do you think he will do everything he can to win the fight so he doesn't have to pay off the debt.

I would also like to point out when the US entered into World War 2, we did not have anywhere near the money it cost to fight that war, but because we had the resources and the ability to use them we where still able to fight.

While the article is about Japanese and Chinese tensions, any sign of problems brings the US into this because of the alliance with Japan.

It's not about calling in our debt, it's cutting off our trade that will absolutely cripple us. Their economy will soar ahead of ours instantly in the event of a war, even one based largely on rhetoric and politics. Our government spends mountains of money when we're not at war; they'll have no problem sacrificing the dollar during one. The economic damage China can do to us is astronomically greater than some aircraft carrier or any other military attack even conceivable, short of global thermonuclear war.

I should qualify a statement above a little bit more, since we're technically at war now with these foreign military adventures we're waging. But nobody says that we have to keep printing and borrowing because we're still in Afghanistan. It's for a million other reasons. The GDP only grew 3%. The unemployment rate is above 8%. Granny won't get her social security check. The sky is blue. There's an excuse for every sucker to latch onto somewhere.

[Bavarian Raven]

1. Get out of Tibet. That's right: just pull the army out.

Why? Tibet is more "chinese" then it is tibeten right now. It would be like Poland giving the land back to Germany. Kind of mute at this point.

[+OverSword]

From the article:

Although the Japanese government did not elaborate on this point, by "ingrained" Abe did not mean Chinese behavior per se, but rather the anti-Japanese undercurrents of China's education system and the use of anti-Japanese sentiment as the basis of Chinese patriotism.

Unfortunately thanks to the atrocities perpetrated on the people of China by the Japanese in the 1930's and 40's this is practicaly a given. I wonder if there has ever been a formal apology from the Government of Japan or thier Emperor?

When we have proof that the Chinese military is perpetrating cyber attacks on the USA shouldn't that put us in a state of war? Shouldn't our hackers crash something of thiers as a warning?

Edited February 27, 2013 by OverSword

[+OverSword]

Why? Tibet is more "chinese" then it is tibeten right now. It would be like Poland giving the land back to Germany. Kind of mute at this point.

Because they moved people in. So if we invaded a smaller country and filled it full of Americans we should then be the legal owners of that territory? Ridiculous.