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Global warming? No, actually we're cooling

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#31    BFB

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 02:04 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 17 September 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

It's far too early to blame the Colorado floods on global warming.  We'll need several years to figure out whether warming had anything to do with it or not.  But I observe that the wind direction is from the south and south southeast - what folks in the Front Range call upslope (or "upslop") conditions.  This condition occurs periodically and has gone on as far back as records go.  This appears to be an unusually intense version of it.

I used to live in Longmont.  I was the Assistant District Forester for Boulder County.  Maybe you've seen the picture of Lefthand Creek flowing across the highway.  That's CO-72.  The road to my old office can be seen on the left side where the white van is parked.  I've been checking out the online pictures.  I know many of those places.  I even saw a woman from the same church I used to belong to; she was drying out some of her stuff that got flooded.  This is all hitting too close to home.

The Weather Service is saying that this is a 500-year flood.  The last major flood to hit that area was Big Thompson in 1976.  In 1921 Boulder Creek put about ten feet of gravel in downtown Boulder.  Store owners simply took the top of their buildings and put new doors in what used to be the second story.  Some of those buildings in Boulder have double-decker basements.

Floods in that area tend to be associated with rainstorms in the mountains, especially slow-moving storms that just sit in one place and dump rain.  This is an unusually large event, but whether it has anything to do with warming is an open question.
Doug

I completely agree.

As I wrote somewhere earlier in some post above, its to early to conclude if this just weather or cc. However by looking at the data, my opinion is that its just weather and not CC. This is why I am a bit choked  that some scientists have already been out the in the media saying "Yup, this is because of Global Warming" They shouldn't be saying this as its misleading the public. If they however said, its my opinion that this is due to climate science, then I wouldn't have a problem at all.

I understand it must be scary seeing all this "so close to home" Especially an extreme event like this.

Didn't know about the double basements story, quite interesting when you think about it. Thanks for that.

"Its not true, until my brain says so" - BFB

#32    Doug1o29

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 03:01 PM

View PostBFB, on 17 September 2013 - 02:04 PM, said:

Didn't know about the double basements story, quite interesting when you think about it. Thanks for that.
Every one of those Front Range towns sits on an alluvial apron, in some cases, hundreds of feet thick.  The Coal Creek Canyon alluvial fan (Rocky Flats) is the largest in the Front Range, something like twenty miles across.  Those aprons have been built up over tens of thousands, maybe millions, of years by storms like this one.  This is nothing new.  Water levels have been this high and higher before.  At the mouth of Boulder Canyon, inside the Boulder city limit, is a house-sized boulder that came down the creek at sometime in the past.  That boulder didn't budge in this flood.  I wonder just what kind of flood it took to put it there.  If we ever get another one that can move it, this flood is going to seem pretty insignificant.  And in St. Vrain Canyon above Lyons is an even bigger one that made it through this flood with its top still above water.  If we get a flood that can move it, we'd better call Noah.  This is not the worst flood that has ever happened in the Front Range.
Doug

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#33    Br Cornelius

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 07:50 PM

View PostBFB, on 17 September 2013 - 01:51 PM, said:

Please show me increased trend in floods for Colorado then. There aren't any change of frequency of flood events in Colorado. Actually there might be. But its not increasing, its declining. .
I never mentioned Colorado and without looking at the records wouldn't presume to.

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