This is the range of speeds I initially came up with (this was based on my first triangulation, which I already know was incorrect, but definitely in the range of acceptable margin of error for horseshoes and hand-grenades)...
After placing flares 3 thru 8, they appear to be separated by roughly .5 and .6 miles. They also appear to be dropped roughly every 8 seconds.
5280 feet in a mile
0.5 mile = 2640 feet / 8 seconds = ~330ft per second = 225 MPH = 195.52 Knots
0.6 mile = 3168 feet / 8 seconds = ~396ft per second = 270 MPH = 234.62 Knots
I was also working on confirming from R's video, and accurately calculating rate of ascent, which would be easier from R's perspective because flares 4 and 9 appeared to have been dropped on a nearly perpendicular plane from his point of view. But it was around that point that I realized that I had my triangulation off by a bit.
With a more precise triangulation I expect that I'll be able to derive a more precise flight speed and path. For now though, I'd say they were definitely flying somewhere between 200 and 300 MPH, for ballpark estimations. I'd aim a bit on the higher end of that scale personally, around 250 - 270 MPH, but time will tell I guess.
Hey Boon, looks like you have been busy
May I ask did you take into account the easterly motion of the flares, I believe Bruce M estimated this to be around 40mph?
Also can you confirm how many A10s you think were responsible for dropping the flares?
Has it been calculated at what height they were dropped (I notice 15000ft being speculated with)? and at what height they were ignited?
edit: couple more questions, do you know how long it would take for the A10s to return to base from the suggested positions at 10pm when dropping flares at 15000ft?
On the videos what is the exact time of light one that is seen? (said to have been plane 1, then plane 2 drops a further 8)
Edited by quillius, 03 May 2011 - 01:15 PM.