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Phoenix - Flares Debunked


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#61    psyche101

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 10:19 PM

View Postzoser, on 18 June 2012 - 05:33 PM, said:

I think what I'm getting at with these threads is that I believe that skeptics generally give far too little credence to witness testimony.

Where there is only one witness and no trace evidence it is partly understandable to be skeptical; however even then one has to look at the quality of the witness and the circumstances behind the person coming forward.  The police officer or a military official has a lot to loose and I would seriously question whether skepticism is appropriate.

Where there are multiple witnesses over a wide distance and over a stretch of time in the case of a UFO flap, the case becomes much harder to doubt.  Denial therefore becomes not based on reason but based on fear of the unknown or stubborn cleavage to some outdated scientific views or just intellectual avoidance.

Where there is trace evidence, denial is even worse and amounts to support for some political fan club, either conscious or semi-conscious and bears no relation to what actually occurred.

This is a trap to fall in the way I see it. I do believe you put far too much credence in witnesses, and the interpretation that UFO hunters give to any seeming anomaly. Here you have multiple witnesses that disagree with multiple witnesses, and you are pickng the ones that are saying UFO, that is what we call in here "cherry picking." Taking the parts you find attractive and only considering that aspect. Why you have little to no support here on this case is one - you do not know it very well at all, you are just making up your hypothesis is you go along, and this is obvious in that you seems to have trouble distinguishing the two events that night and two - you refuse to accept that math has been done and shown the proponent witnesses to be positively incorrect, I keep telling you that people make mistakes, but math does not. In order to maintain a modicum of sensibility with your argument, can you explain to me why the witness statements are more valuable than the math? Boony, Perc and Lost Shaman have done excellent work triangulating the paths and proving this was a flare drop, why do you refuse to accept that mathematically the witnesses are wrong?

Zoser, you refuse to accept or even view the math, that makes you the one in denial. The rest of us have considered both sides of the argument, as long as you insist that only one side exists you remain the only one in denial.

Edited by psyche101, 18 June 2012 - 10:23 PM.

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#62    DingoLingo

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 11:47 PM

View Postzoser, on 18 June 2012 - 05:33 PM, said:

I think what I'm getting at with these threads is that I believe that skeptics generally give far too little credence to witness testimony.


I give witness testimonies very little credence.. why.. out of 100 people who see something.. the majority will describe seeing something different.. then when they get together and talk about it.. they will then change what they have seen.. there have been enough studies and tests on this kind of thing..

Also the fact that "oh lights in the sky.. I've seen a UFO if I tell someone.. I'll get on TV and be famous"

And you try to pass this stuff off as credible evidence? ..

At least psyche.. Sak's and booN etc actually give plausable answers generally backed up by well documented (and what I mean is documented by actual people who are professionals in their trade not some fringe pseudo backyard researcher who has read all the ET have visited us books etc)


#63    psyche101

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 12:05 AM

View PostDingoLingo, on 18 June 2012 - 11:47 PM, said:

I give witness testimonies very little credence.. why.. out of 100 people who see something.. the majority will describe seeing something different.. then when they get together and talk about it.. they will then change what they have seen.. there have been enough studies and tests on this kind of thing..

Also the fact that "oh lights in the sky.. I've seen a UFO if I tell someone.. I'll get on TV and be famous"

And you try to pass this stuff off as credible evidence? ..

At least psyche.. Sak's and booN etc actually give plausable answers generally backed up by well documented (and what I mean is documented by actual people who are professionals in their trade not some fringe pseudo backyard researcher who has read all the ET have visited us books etc)

Thanks mate.

In the Hudson thread, we saw a direct example of this. One person described a Boomerang, which turned out to be a semi circle or horseshoe shape. It's a common mistake, and quite understandable, but it exists, is prominent, and it creates an incorrect picture of what is being described. For this reason alone, witnesses cannot be taken at face value because we all have our own minds, and they all work a little differently from each other.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants. - Sir Isaac Newton Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit. - Ed Stewart Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Dr Who

#64    JesseCuster

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 01:37 AM

View Postzoser, on 17 June 2012 - 05:47 PM, said:

Modern science?  Nuclear reactors spewing out their poisons; fossil fuels in cars for the last 100 years; burning coal in homes slowly poisoning the planet that our ancients were doing to keep warm.  Forgive me if I don't bow down to science just yet,
And computers, the internet, organ transplants, antibiotics, LASIK surgery, pacemakers, MRI scans, smartphones, digital photography, modern surgery that can do everything from clearing blood clots to replacing heart valves, ultrasounds zapping of gallstones and kidney stones, etc. not to add currently aweome stuff like the moon landings, Mars exploration, large hadron collider, etc. that hasn't current practical use but may in the future and even if it doesn't, is worthy in itself.

zoser, if you are a 21st century, 1st world individual, there is a decent chance that you are alive and healthy now because you haven't died from an otherwise treatable infection, an otherwise treatable accident etc.

I have 7 healthy siblings and 1 who unfortunately died shortly after birth.  That's a pretty good record - 8 children out of 9 who lived to adulthood. The previous generation to that was my dad's generation.  He had 7 healthy brothers and sisters and 9 siblings who died in childhood.  What's the difference - the SCIENCE you are b****ing about.  A change from ~10% to ~50% if kids dying early in life (I admit it's not a scientific record and just my own family record, but it speaks volumes) because of medical science.  Yeah, let's b**** about science!

What is it with you and your anti-science attitude?  The only reason you are here on this website whinging about modern science is because of modern science.

Science is 2 things - a methodology and a body of knowledge that said methodology has built up.  What people do with it is another thing, but your whinging isn't doing you any favours.  If the aliens you believe exist, actually exist and have come here to earth, it's only because they have SCIENCE at their disposal, and not a bunch of whingers on their planet whinging about some of the things science has been used negatively for.

Edited by Archimedes, 19 June 2012 - 01:49 AM.

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#65    quillius

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 10:39 AM

View Postlost_shaman, on 18 June 2012 - 08:19 AM, said:

Hey psyche,

How do you know it's not just weird kids wearing contacts?

http://www.cosplayla...mmortaleyes.asp

View PostTheMcGuffin, on 18 June 2012 - 04:38 PM, said:

Or kids playing some kind of practical joke.

not so sure guys, but yes possible. I just dont see kids spending $300 odd on contact lenses to pull of a prank, one that rarely gives them any real laugh at the time...i.e. 'they knock on door, ask to get let in, then walk away' dont see where the kids get their kicks here? especially as the 'scared/uneasy' feeling described by those reporting it comes about in the report and would/could be difficult to spot by the prankster, rendering prank unlikely IMO.

does anyone know if there have been any multiple sightings/events...i.e. more than one person sees them at the same time? I ask this because from what I have read it has been individuals only and this leaves the possibility of it being all  in the mind.



View Postpsyche101, on 18 June 2012 - 10:12 PM, said:

Entirely possible indeed, and in fact I agree with you that contacts are likely, my step-daughter has sported the odd pair when attending a party and they are striking, more of a passing thought on the hostile aliens subject. I just found some of the similarities to MIB interesting more than anything and noticed some parallels, and wondered just how many parallels BEK's have with MIB's.

one major difference is that the MIB always seemed to show up after a UFO sighting/event, and I dont think the same can be said about the BEKs. At least not from what I have read to date.


edit to add: apologies for derailing.......

Edited by quillius, 19 June 2012 - 10:40 AM.


#66    Hazzard

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 11:09 AM

View PostDingoLingo, on 18 June 2012 - 11:47 PM, said:

At least psyche.. Sak's and booN etc actually give plausable answers generally backed up by well documented (and what I mean is documented by actual people who are professionals in their trade not some fringe pseudo backyard researcher who has read all the ET have visited us books etc)

I could not agree more, Dingo.

Since coming here to UM I pretty much learn something new every day, thanks to these guys more than willing to share their knowledge. Guys like Waspie, MID, pericynthion and Badeskov, just to mention a few of the others.

Sadly ET visitation is not among these new things.

I still await the compelling Exhibit A.

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#67    DBunker

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 12:41 PM

View PostHazzard, on 19 June 2012 - 11:09 AM, said:

I could not agree more, Dingo.

Since coming here to UM I pretty much learn something new every day, thanks to these guys more than willing to share their knowledge. Guys like Waspie, MID, pericynthion and Badeskov, just to mention a few of the others.

Sadly ET visitation is not among these new things.

We got some really good people here thats for sure. As for the rest, well, they arent half bad either.

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#68    Babe Ruth

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 12:44 PM

It has been proved time and again that eye witness testimony regarding the indentification of individuals in criminal trials is often inaccurate.

But that does not mean that eye witness testimony has no value or is always wrong.

Regarding UFO sightings, and the Phoenix case in particular, eye witness testimony is often all we have.  Further, in these cases the source of the testimony must be considered.  The sheer volume of witnesses in the Phoenix case makes it unique, it seems to me.  And the duration of the event.

And that a USAF pilot named Symington happened to be one of those witnesses.  Though he obfuscated in the true government fashion while he was CEO of the state government, he eventually came clean.  It was not a flight of A-10 aircraft dropping flares.

We are not alone in this universe, and the pseudo-skeptics suggesting that we are detract from rational public dialogue.  Though truth be told, it does not really matter whether certain humans understand this or not.  Life goes on, whether certain individuals are aware or not.


#69    booNyzarC

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 02:30 PM

View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 12:44 PM, said:

It has been proved time and again that eye witness testimony regarding the indentification of individuals in criminal trials is often inaccurate.

But that does not mean that eye witness testimony has no value or is always wrong.
You'll find no disagreement from me on this point.


View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 12:44 PM, said:

Regarding UFO sightings, and the Phoenix case in particular, eye witness testimony is often all we have.  Further, in these cases the source of the testimony must be considered.  The sheer volume of witnesses in the Phoenix case makes it unique, it seems to me.  And the duration of the event.
Although we have a lot of witnesses for the Phoenix Lights, that isn't all we have.  We also have video.  Specifically, we have 4 videos from 4 different people in 4 different locations for the 10 PM event, and 1 video by 1 person of the earlier event.

Regarding the source of the testimony, I agree that it is important to consider this.  For example, we have witnesses who observed the earlier events with the aid of a telescope and binoculars.  This would afford them a better view than other witnesses who relied solely on their eyes.  What did they report the earlier event consisted of?  Planes in formation.


View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 12:44 PM, said:

And that a USAF pilot named Symington happened to be one of those witnesses.  Though he obfuscated in the true government fashion while he was CEO of the state government, he eventually came clean.  It was not a flight of A-10 aircraft dropping flares.
Symington didn't witness the 10 PM event, he witnessed the earlier event, so you are correct that good ol' Fife didn't see the flares dropped by the A-10 Warthogs until the news ran Mike K's footage for the world to see later on.


View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 12:44 PM, said:

We are not alone in this universe, and the pseudo-skeptics suggesting that we are detract from rational public dialogue.  Though truth be told, it does not really matter whether certain humans understand this or not.  Life goes on, whether certain individuals are aware or not.
Can you point out where anyone is suggesting that we are alone in the universe?  In all my time at UM I've only seen one person suggest this that I can recall, and he hasn't paid a visit to this thread.


#70    zoser

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 03:13 PM

View PostArchimedes, on 19 June 2012 - 01:37 AM, said:

And computers, the internet, organ transplants, antibiotics, LASIK surgery, pacemakers, MRI scans, smartphones, digital photography, modern surgery that can do everything from clearing blood clots to replacing heart valves, ultrasounds zapping of gallstones and kidney stones, etc. not to add currently aweome stuff like the moon landings, Mars exploration, large hadron collider, etc. that hasn't current practical use but may in the future and even if it doesn't, is worthy in itself.

zoser, if you are a 21st century, 1st world individual, there is a decent chance that you are alive and healthy now because you haven't died from an otherwise treatable infection, an otherwise treatable accident etc.

I have 7 healthy siblings and 1 who unfortunately died shortly after birth.  That's a pretty good record - 8 children out of 9 who lived to adulthood. The previous generation to that was my dad's generation.  He had 7 healthy brothers and sisters and 9 siblings who died in childhood.  What's the difference - the SCIENCE you are b****ing about.  A change from ~10% to ~50% if kids dying early in life (I admit it's not a scientific record and just my own family record, but it speaks volumes) because of medical science.  Yeah, let's b**** about science!

What is it with you and your anti-science attitude?  The only reason you are here on this website whinging about modern science is because of modern science.

Science is 2 things - a methodology and a body of knowledge that said methodology has built up.  What people do with it is another thing, but your whinging isn't doing you any favours.  If the aliens you believe exist, actually exist and have come here to earth, it's only because they have SCIENCE at their disposal, and not a bunch of whingers on their planet whinging about some of the things science has been used negatively for.

Have you ever asked yourself why mankind needs all that invasive medical technology?  Could it be that modern life is extremely destructive on the human complex and that the medical profession is just repairing the damage that the culture does?

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#71    Babe Ruth

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 05:39 PM

Boo

I might be repeating myself to say that in 1997 I was in the process of raising 2 kids in high school, so the event in Phoenix was just a tiny blip in the news--just another UFO incident somewhere.  I never paid any particular attention to it then, and only became aware of it recently, courtesy of History or Nat Geo channels.

Yes, there are videos, and apparently quite a few more than the several you mention.  And there are at least hundreds if not thousands of people who saw it pass right over their heads.

It seems clear that there were 2 incidents--1 early in the evening witnessed and filmed by many including some TV stations, and the other around 10PM which appears likely to have been a USAF response to the earlier incident.  I have no doubt that they did send up some A-10s, and I'm sure the reasons for that are myriad and bureaucratic.

Yes, as Fife stated clearly, he saw the earlier event, and it was something not of this earth, or words to that effect.  Ditto all the others who watched the drawn out earlier event.

And of course you are right that nobody here has stated that "I think we are alone in the universe."  No prob.

Funny thing is, however, that many post AS IF we are alone in the universe, or AS IF it is utterly impossible for the events in Phoenix to be anything OTHER THAN mass psychosis, hypnosis.  They post as if the only and most obvious explanation is that the earlier event did not happen, or it was somehow some guys in A-10s went out early, or some other nonsensical explanation, SO LONG AS the explanation is that it simply could not be craft from another place or dimension.


#72    Slave2Fate

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 06:15 PM

View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 12:44 PM, said:

It has been proved time and again that eye witness testimony regarding the indentification of individuals in criminal trials is often inaccurate.

But that does not mean that eye witness testimony has no value or is always wrong.

That is true though that does have the adverse effect of rendering all eyewitness testimony questionable. There is enough room for mistakes and misperception that all eyewitness testimony should be scrutinized carefully and never taken at face value without corroborating evidence (other than further eyewitness testimony). I have no problem with eyewitness testimony but the factual data that can be garnered from it is limited. It has nothing to do with mistrust or the thought that other people are idiots, it has more to do with the fallibilities that every human possesses that must be accounted for in a rigorous manner if we are to learn the truth of what people are seeing. Wild speculation and wishful thinking have only muddied the waters so badly that we now have 57 species of aliens that visit us every day and the Galactic Federation of Light trying to come 'save us' rather than just a few odd sightings/incidents on occasion in reality. In that regard it is easy to see the damage that has been done when one clings so tightly to eyewitness testimony and 'stories'.

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#73    WhyDontYouBeliEveMe

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 06:23 PM

i m starting to love you babe ruth :D ...    yeah most of the skeptic are really funny... they all say .. i have no duobt that aliens exist, but i need prove !  uhh? lols ...... yeah makes sense !


#74    DBunker

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 06:47 PM

View PostWhyDontYouBeliEveMe, on 19 June 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

i m starting to love you babe ruth :D ... yeah most of the skeptic are really funny... they all say .. i have no duobt that aliens exist, but i need prove !  uhh? lols ...... yeah makes sense !

It does indeed make sense. Because without proof, all you have is what you and your buddies have now, belief.

Good enough for you guys maybe..... but not for the rest of us who needs to be 100% sure.

Now that communications technology has made it possible to give global reach to the bizarre and archive it forever, it is essential for men and women of reason resolutely to counter the delusions of the fringe element. James S. Robbins

#75    booNyzarC

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 06:59 PM

View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 05:39 PM, said:

Boo

I might be repeating myself to say that in 1997 I was in the process of raising 2 kids in high school, so the event in Phoenix was just a tiny blip in the news--just another UFO incident somewhere.  I never paid any particular attention to it then, and only became aware of it recently, courtesy of History or Nat Geo channels.
So after watching a documentary about the case you feel as though you have all the necessary facts to make a well reasoned determination as to the nature of what transpired that night?  Well I have news for you.  I've seen every documentary about the Phoenix Lights that has ever been made, and there isn't a single one that portrays all of the facts about the case.  So if you've only seen one or two, you haven't seen it all, and it will require more than just documentaries to get a full picture.



View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 05:39 PM, said:

Yes, there are videos, and apparently quite a few more than the several you mention.  And there are at least hundreds if not thousands of people who saw it pass right over their heads.
No, there are only the several that I mentioned and no others.  None that have been released anyway.

Now there were recordings of similar events from the Phoenix area on different dates.  Perhaps that is what you are referring to?

As for the hundreds if not thousands of witnesses, I agree.  A great many people witnessed the events.



View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 05:39 PM, said:

It seems clear that there were 2 incidents--1 early in the evening witnessed and filmed by many including some TV stations, and the other around 10PM which appears likely to have been a USAF response to the earlier incident.  I have no doubt that they did send up some A-10s, and I'm sure the reasons for that are myriad and bureaucratic.
Yes, two events, but they weren't related.  The A-10s were on a routine training mission over the Berry Goldwater Range, just as had been going on for years before, and has continued for years after.



View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 05:39 PM, said:

Yes, as Fife stated clearly, he saw the earlier event, and it was something not of this earth, or words to that effect.  Ditto all the others who watched the drawn out earlier event.
Yes, that was the impression of a great many people.  But it wasn't the impression of all of the witnesses.  There were some who saw planes in formation, and they had a better view than everyone else because they were viewing the formation with binoculars and a Dobsonian telescope.  The one piece of footage that briefly captured the earlier event corroborates this conclusion.

But how could so many people have failed to identify something so mundane as planes in formation?

Tell me something Babe Ruth, how many videos of airplanes mistaken as UFOs do you suppose are out on YouTube?  Thousands, if not hundreds of thousands.  More keep rolling in every day.  Why do so many people record planes flying at night and say that they are UFOs?

People can mistake planes for something unknown.  It happens all the time.  One thing that people don't do though, is mistake giant triangular shaped alien space craft as planes in formation.  In order to accept that there was a giant alien space craft in the sky that night, we need to assume that Mitch Stanley and Rich Contry, who had the benefit of a telescope and binoculars, mistook that giant alien craft as planes flying in formation.  Or we need to be convinced that they didn't see the same thing that the other witnesses saw, or that they were lying.

According to them they were looking in the same region of the sky as other witnesses, and at the same time.  So unless they are lying...  it was planes in formation.



View PostBabe Ruth, on 19 June 2012 - 05:39 PM, said:

And of course you are right that nobody here has stated that "I think we are alone in the universe."  No prob.

Funny thing is, however, that many post AS IF we are alone in the universe, or AS IF it is utterly impossible for the events in Phoenix to be anything OTHER THAN mass psychosis, hypnosis.  They post as if the only and most obvious explanation is that the earlier event did not happen, or it was somehow some guys in A-10s went out early, or some other nonsensical explanation, SO LONG AS the explanation is that it simply could not be craft from another place or dimension.
Perhaps that's because what most skeptical people around here are actually saying is that we haven't seen any credible evidence that aliens are now, or ever have, visited this planet.  We're looking though, and we'd love to see that one case which could convince us.  I am anyway.

Cheers.





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