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Iran Nuclear Program: U.S. Believes

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#76    Br Cornelius

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:17 AM

View Postand then, on 19 August 2012 - 11:08 AM, said:

I make no claims of being expert in the field of military exploit but I do believe that the hardware (and software) available to a fighting force make quite a difference to the outcome of conflict.  As brave and well trained as the IRGC may be, it is difficult to overcome the technological imbalance.  That hornets nest you mention is what's in store for THEM, not us.  And there is no way Russia or China go to the wall for Iran.  They couldn't even react in time to stop the whipping that would be administered to Iran by forces in the region.  The level of tension in the world would go redline but no military action from them.  

"History says otherwise. Only superstition allows you to believe otherwise."

What history says otherwise?  I'm talking about FUTURE events.  My "superstitions" allow for that.  And your outlook will never allow you to admit being wrong, EVEN when these things are happening you will deny.  Not much pride, eh?

If you read your Bible you would realise what I am saying. Israel has been destroyed as a nation twice in the past. It was not victorious.

Look at what is happening in Afghanistan to see what advantage superior military fire power offers. An irregular insurrgent force has been shown to always win against any invading technologically advanced army. Iran is not some backwards third world country which cannot defend itself with its own high quality arms. If America intervens in any way the least that Russia and China will do is ferry massive amounts of armaments to Iran. I do not share your confidence that China will not get stuck in. The first thing it would do is cut Americas credit lines and then mobilize ground forces.

You see how quickly and easily it would all end in a very bad place for Israel and America both.

Br Cornelius

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:33 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 19 August 2012 - 11:17 AM, said:

If you read your Bible you would realise what I am saying. Israel has been destroyed as a nation twice in the past. It was not victorious.

Look at what is happening in Afghanistan to see what advantage superior military fire power offers. An irregular insurrgent force has been shown to always win against any invading technologically advanced army. Iran is not some backwards third world country which cannot defend itself with its own high quality arms. If America intervens in any way the least that Russia and China will do is ferry massive amounts of armaments to Iran. I do not share your confidence that China will not get stuck in. The first thing it would do is cut Americas credit lines and then mobilize ground forces.

You see how quickly and easily it would all end in a very bad place for Israel and America both.

Br Cornelius
As I said, I was speaking of future events but never mind, no point in discussing that.  As to Iran, NO ONE has been talking about invasion.  Everyone in power knows this would be a loser.  There is no need to put an army on the ground to accomplish the goal of damaging their nuclear program.  Someone once said that any problem could be solved through the careful application of TNT.  Not true of course but SOME problems can definitely be mitigated considerably.  By using standoff weapons and pummeling the facilities they could accomplish everything they want to.  The problem with escalation comes if Iran (or Hizballah) decides to go all out in retaliating.  It could turn into a blood bath for the Lebanese and Syrians.  Iran has built up a capacity for stealthy murder.  They do not project power, only fear.  If they push back too hard they will lose their IRGC and the mullahs cannot allow the praetorian to be destroyed.  They can't face the Iranian citizenry without security.

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#78    Br Cornelius

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:44 AM

View Postand then, on 19 August 2012 - 11:33 AM, said:

As I said, I was speaking of future events but never mind, no point in discussing that.  As to Iran, NO ONE has been talking about invasion.  Everyone in power knows this would be a loser.  There is no need to put an army on the ground to accomplish the goal of damaging their nuclear program.  Someone once said that any problem could be solved through the careful application of TNT.  Not true of course but SOME problems can definitely be mitigated considerably.  By using standoff weapons and pummeling the facilities they could accomplish everything they want to.  The problem with escalation comes if Iran (or Hizballah) decides to go all out in retaliating.  It could turn into a blood bath for the Lebanese and Syrians.  Iran has built up a capacity for stealthy murder.  They do not project power, only fear.  If they push back too hard they will lose their IRGC and the mullahs cannot allow the praetorian to be destroyed.  They can't face the Iranian citizenry without security.

You really think an Israeli attack could be contained without significant blowback. FOOL.
The Arab world knows now that Israel is vunerable to irregular forces and would not get caught out again with a full on assault. Any attack would lead to multiple insurgencies. Do you think that the fall of Middle Eastern Client states such as Egypt has some how made Israel safer ? Quite the opposite - containing angry armed mobs will be impossible in the new Middle East.
China has as good as said that any move against Iran is a move against us. They would crash the American currency first and then defend their oil industry. Do you really imagine that they will accept a one sided strategic outcome dictated by their fag the Americans. They have already stuck two fingers up at the oil and trade embargo and have ensured that ultimately trade sanctions against Iran will come to nothing. Ultimately they may even give Iran Nukes.

You really are looking at everything through the distorting prism of divine right and Israeli invunerability. You are wrong.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 19 August 2012 - 11:53 AM.

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#79    shaddow134

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 12:32 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 19 August 2012 - 11:44 AM, said:

You really think an Israeli attack could be contained without significant blowback. FOOL.
The Arab world knows now that Israel is vunerable to irregular forces and would not get caught out again with a full on assault. Any attack would lead to multiple insurgencies. Do you think that the fall of Middle Eastern Client states such as Egypt has some how made Israel safer ? Quite the opposite - containing angry armed mobs will be impossible in the new Middle East.
China has as good as said that any move against Iran is a move against us. They would crash the American currency first and then defend their oil industry. Do you really imagine that they will accept a one sided strategic outcome dictated by their fag the Americans. They have already stuck two fingers up at the oil and trade embargo and have ensured that ultimately trade sanctions against Iran will come to nothing. Ultimately they may even give Iran Nukes.

You really are looking at everything through the distorting prism of divine right and Israeli invunerability. You are wrong.

Br Cornelius

The west is bearing the brunt of the oil sanctions,India is still buying using gold bullion,the entire Asian zone including china are buying Iranian crude at below market prices.

The Sanctions are about as effective as a chocolate fire guard and Iran is still afloat.China has stated that they will protect their interests in Iran and the U.S. will most likely have to sit back and let Isreal go it alone,another Military Campaign would be a disaster for Obama and the next President.

Edited by shaddow134, 19 August 2012 - 12:36 PM.

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#80    and then

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 01:36 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 19 August 2012 - 11:44 AM, said:

You really think an Israeli attack could be contained without significant blowback. FOOL.
The Arab world knows now that Israel is vunerable to irregular forces and would not get caught out again with a full on assault. Any attack would lead to multiple insurgencies. Do you think that the fall of Middle Eastern Client states such as Egypt has some how made Israel safer ? Quite the opposite - containing angry armed mobs will be impossible in the new Middle East.
China has as good as said that any move against Iran is a move against us. They would crash the American currency first and then defend their oil industry. Do you really imagine that they will accept a one sided strategic outcome dictated by their fag the Americans. They have already stuck two fingers up at the oil and trade embargo and have ensured that ultimately trade sanctions against Iran will come to nothing. Ultimately they may even give Iran Nukes.

You really are looking at everything through the distorting prism of divine right and Israeli invunerability. You are wrong.

Br Cornelius
Yes I do.  And you are giving WAY too much credit to the ambitions of the Chinese and the Iranians.  Wishful thinking on your part.  China needs the commerce of the US.  No matter how distasteful you may personally find us to be, the rest of the world still depends on us a great deal.  Not so much as a couple decades ago but enough to insulate us from the silliness you just described.  Face it brutha... the US and Israel will survive this conflict just fine.  And if I am correct (big if) and this conflict IS the one written of in Psalm 83 then Israel is going to kick the teeth in for every country that it shares a border with.  And take territorial gains.  People like yourself have been lulled into thinking that Israel is hamstrung somehow just because of what happened in Lebanon in 2006.  They showed tremendous restraint in that war.  But IF all their neighbors have a go at the same time, Israel is going to wreak breathtaking destruction on the region.  Think lights out, water and sewerage gone, scarce food and not much undamaged infrastructure anywhere.  They are quite capable with conventional weapons of accomplishing all that.  In weeks, without resupply.  And if you think the US is incapable of eliminating Iran's military threat then you are the one blinded by your own biases.

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#81    Br Cornelius

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 03:41 PM

It is widely recognised that America will not gain from allowing an attack on Iran;

Quote

Russia, China and India have close ties with Iran with no conflictual record plaguing their relationship. Iran figures significantly in the strategic matrix of Russia, China and India and those cannot be subverted or subsumed to serve United States strategic interests.
Iran too has corresponding convergence of its national security interests with Russia, China and India and it is therefore not a one way street.
With the likelihood of United States employing military intervention and pre-emptive strategies against Iran’s nuclear programmes, it would be interesting to await and watch how Russia, China and India singly or jointly respond to United States veiled threats to use the military option against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. It could be one case in which the European Union too may have convergences with Russia, China and India.  
Russia, China and India cannot be faulted by the United States for Iran figuring in multiple ways advantageously in their respective strategic matrixes. While Iran may be viewed as a national security threat by the United States, the national security  interests of Russia, China and India determine it to be otherwise.  
Iran is not Iraq which can be subdued by American high technology warfare and military strategies of "shock and awe". It is a  monolithic civilisational power with underpinnings of intense nationalism and Shia religious fervour.
Against the background above, the following questions arise:
  • Can USA go it alone in enforcing its unilateral military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities?
  • Would USA's policy of engaging Iran politically through intermediaries like the European Union bring about  the desired results?
  • Can Russia, China and India influence Iran in any way in line with the United States strategic interests?
The answer to all three questions is NO. The United States has no choice but to engage Iran directly, officially and politically. The United States can ill afford to let its historical baggage of animosity towards Iran cloud  its current decision making. Iran holds the key to West Asian stability and USA needs to recognize it.

http://www.southasia...\paper1284.html

Such a strategy makes far to many enemies for a nation who is broke and fighting wars on multiple fronts.

That would force Israel to go it alone which they know will end very badly for them - and is why they are attempting to coerce America into backing them up.
Ultimately everything points to America telling Israel to take a jump - and so it seems that Israel will back down.

Defeat in the face of realpolitik.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 19 August 2012 - 03:41 PM.

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#82    ninjadude

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 04:47 PM

View Postand then, on 18 August 2012 - 11:21 PM, said:

What do you envision an Israeli loss to be?  Words at the UN, new flags flying over Haifa, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem?  The end of a Zionist dream and of course utopia for the freed Palestinians? Nah.....  Imagine Houla, Syria - but on steroids.  It would be a blood bath so sickening that the world would have to intervene, albeit at the very end.  It would nauseate you the savagery you would witness, well, except the media wouldn't show much of it.  
Apparently you disbelieve this scenario OR are willing to risk seeing a nuclear conflict blossom in the M.E.   You see, Brutha, they will NEVER be uprooted again to wander.  They WILL bleed, badly.  But they will never again die alone.  Any fair minded person should be okay with that.

This screed is exactly why you get pilloried. you whine about savagery and bloodshed but advocate nuclear attack. You love Israel and hate everyone else. It's ok for you if Iranians get killed but not Israelis. It's dishonest. We get that. But don't try to get sympathy for it.

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#83    Br Cornelius

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 05:46 PM

I would ask our only Israeli citizen,Erikl, whether he feels any affinity and/or gratitude for the support expressed by the likes of "and then".

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 19 August 2012 - 05:51 PM.

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#84    and then

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:48 PM

View Postninjadude, on 19 August 2012 - 04:47 PM, said:

This screed is exactly why you get pilloried. you whine about savagery and bloodshed but advocate nuclear attack. You love Israel and hate everyone else. It's ok for you if Iranians get killed but not Israelis. It's dishonest. We get that. But don't try to get sympathy for it.
I don't ask for sympathy from heartless people.  No point begging an animal with a gun to your head not to kill you.  That's the whole point.  You're a hypocrite CC.. If what I described were to happen you KNOW you wouldn't shed a tear.  So your opinion doesn't hold much sway with a real human being.  And do not LIE about me or my positions.  I have NEVER advocated for a nuclear attack.  If you are referring to the heated posts of a couple months ago about the US Army instructor's class on nukes, Mecca and TOTAL WAR. I gave an opinion that i agreed with him WITHIN the context of his class on TOTAL WAR.  That one still rankles you because you have too little wit or dignity to even read up on the concept to understand why I might have said what I did.  But you should be forgiven for being mindless I guess, after all you do support the insanity leading our nation just now.  And you have the nerve to preach to me.....

Edited by and then, 19 August 2012 - 11:52 PM.

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#85    and then

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:56 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 19 August 2012 - 05:46 PM, said:

I would ask our only Israeli citizen,Erikl, whether he feels any affinity and/or gratitude for the support expressed by the likes of "and then".

Br Cornelius
And while I wasn't asked I will feel free to join since my name is used.  I don't know any Israelis.  I do not personally know any Jews.  That does not keep me from having deep empathy for their situation.  I require NO ONE on this site to vouch for me or my opinions.  I speak my mind and some here are so childish they cannot deal with that when it doesn't fit their world view.  Get over it chuckles.

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#86    ninjadude

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 02:41 AM

View Postand then, on 19 August 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

I don't ask for sympathy from heartless people.  No point begging an animal with a gun to your head not to kill you.  That's the whole point.  You're a hypocrite CC.. If what I described were to happen you KNOW you wouldn't shed a tear.  So your opinion doesn't hold much sway with a real human being.

There you go. You just said non-jews are animals. Would you shed ANY tears if Israel nuked or bombed Iran? I thought not.

"Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it. Begin it now!""
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Posted 20 August 2012 - 03:15 AM

View Postninjadude, on 20 August 2012 - 02:41 AM, said:

There you go. You just said non-jews are animals. Would you shed ANY tears if Israel nuked or bombed Iran? I thought not.
Actually I had you in mind and those like you, when I said that.  No pity, no mercy.  And I would be HORRIFIED if a nuke was ever used on human beings ever again.  I have actually gotten to know a couple of Iranians and they were intelligent, well spoken respectful and quite funny.  I think it will be an awful tragedy if Israel or we ever bomb their country.  It will destroy so much more than just infrastructure.  Lives, hopes, trust.  Their young people - the majority there - love the West and the US in particular.  But what I desire does not run the world.  Evil old men run their country.  Men who talk openly of killing Jews just for being Jews.  Men who call for the destruction of this country that YOU and I live in.  So where does that come in on your radar?  Do you think they are justified in their hatred of us?  Of the Jews?  Does annihilating the US seem reasonable to you? Or would it be okay if it's "just" Israel?

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#88    ninjadude

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 03:39 AM

View Postand then, on 20 August 2012 - 03:15 AM, said:

  And I would be HORRIFIED if a nuke was ever used on human beings ever again.  I have actually gotten to know a couple of Iranians and they were intelligent, well spoken respectful and quite funny.  I think it will be an awful tragedy if Israel or we ever bomb their country.  It will destroy so much more than just infrastructure.  Lives, hopes, trust.  Their young people - the majority there - love the West and the US in particular.  

my mistake.

Quote

But what I desire does not run the world.  Evil old men run their country.  Men who talk openly of killing Jews just for being Jews.  Men who call for the destruction of this country that YOU and I live in.  So where does that come in on your radar?

No it doesn't. Because there are people and governments all over the world that hate us (justifiably) and expose that daily. We can't and should not go around invading them because of it. In most cases it is just bluster. Nothing more. (and no "government" attacked us on 9/11, it was a group of mostly Saudis who were criminals) They threaten so that we and others pay attention. In some cases, they are attention whores. As so much of our culture has become. So no, frankly I don't care. Their chances of destroying anything other than themselves is remote.

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 04:45 AM

View Postninjadude, on 20 August 2012 - 03:39 AM, said:

my mistake.



No it doesn't. Because there are people and governments all over the world that hate us (justifiably) and expose that daily. We can't and should not go around invading them because of it. In most cases it is just bluster. Nothing more. (and no "government" attacked us on 9/11, it was a group of mostly Saudis who were criminals) They threaten so that we and others pay attention. In some cases, they are attention whores. As so much of our culture has become. So no, frankly I don't care. Their chances of destroying anything other than themselves is remote.
I think you are willfully remaining ignorant of the peril.  A single nuke in NYC would cripple this country for years.  Slipping a crude device into the harbor would be incredibly easy to do.  The finger print on the type of fissile material would almost certainly be from a Russian or Chinese stockpile.  So our choice would be to accept the damage and try to clean up the mess while striking some 3rd party like NK or Pakistan OR go to full war with Russia or China.No way to win.  We are vulnerable in ways we never have been vulnerable before in my lifetime.  I don't fear for MY life but for my daughter's.  And to your point about the Saudis who attacked - does it matter who kills us?  We are targets and we need to decide and make a Doctrinal Statement very soon of how we will react to a WMD attack on our country.  The evil in the world needs to KNOW beyond any doubt that we will utterly destroy those who come against us.  If that sounds fanatical well those are the times we find ourselves in.

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#90    FreddyScienceTeacher

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 05:44 AM

Expand My Mind, what drivel is this ? "Iran doesn't have any such record."  Did the Munich Olympics never happen? I don't hate Iranians, but their record of activity is worse than the Mus-sad (who are also real jerks).





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