75 replies to this topic

[Merc14]

A little reported story, even by Fox, is the massive change in voter affiliation we have seen since 2009 and the passage of Obamacare.  In 2008, after a decade of virulently anti-republican press and the excitement generated by Obama's candidacy, 54% of likely voters identified themselves as leaning democrat compared to 42% republican.  In 2004, 48% leaned R and 48% leaned D which was close to the norm of a +2% R advantage in most years.

This year there has been a massive swing in likely voters from 2008 to 49% leaning republican vs. 46% leaning democrat.  This equates to a 15 % relative change in voter affiliation in 3 years.  Couple this with the enthusiasm gap that is roughly 6%-10% in republican's favor as compared to a democrat 12% advantage in 2008 and you have to wonder how viable a poll in Ohio giving Obama  +9 in democrat turnout is, especially since it was a little greater than half that in 2008 at the peak of Obamamania.

The usual suspects will poo-poo these numbers but take my word for it, or do your own research and you'll realize that these shifts will have a massive effect on November 6th.  Many pollsters have been using the +9 democrat advantage because pollsters are trying to adjust for such massive shifts from their 2008 samples.

Bottom-line is if Obama is tied or just 1 point ahead in a poll that is biased +9 democrats, he is in huge trouble.  This will also mean, IMHO, a much better than predicted republican victory in the senate.  Romney isn't going to just squeak out a victory next Tuesday, he is going to win big, in the neighborhood of 320 electoral votes or more plus 52% to 48% popular vote.  The republicans will take the senate and keep the house.  Pollsters and MSM will be humiliated.  Can't wait to see Matthews cry on air.
http://www.gallup.co...-like-2008.aspx

http://www.huffingto..._n_1946586.html

Edited by Merc14, 30 October 2012 - 03:43 AM.

[orangepeaceful79]

I don't doubt that Republicans will win big this cycle.  The thing is that it will just be another round of failure for our country.  Perhaps a little different flavor of failure, but failure nonetheless.  The Republicans don't have the answer any more than the Democrats do.  My personal opinion is that none of the parties really know a way out of this mess.  They are just trying to grab while the grabbing is good, so to speak.

[DieChecker]

Interesting articles.

I think it is interesting that the big shift in Enthusiasm from a +13% for Dems in 2008 and a +6% for the Repubs this time. Like the article says if people are not enthusiastic, they are much less likely to go to the polls on voting day. So even if Obama has a 3 or 5% lead in phone polling in some state, he could have 5 or 10% less people show up. So, I think that is very important.

Article also says that interest is less among the young and latinos by around 20%. Which are groups that are mostly leaning toward Obama.

I think the Identifying Democrat / Identifying Republican article/graph was also telling in that Democrats had a +12% advantage in 2008 and now the Republicans have a +3% advantage. That is a big change toward Concervatism.

[The Silver Thong]

Is the US ready for a Morman prez.  I doubt it. however lets ignore that fact.

[Merc14]

Gallup now has Romney up 52%-45% in early voting.  This is devastating for the democrats who have spent millions on the ground game with staffed offices throughout the country that are designed to take maximum advantage of the early vote.  Apparently, at least so far, that is millions of dollars wasted as Romney has a decisive lead in early voting.  Sandy isn't going to help either and I know because I got hit by the storm the last 48 hours and what we suffered is nothing compared to the Northeast corridor.

[Merc14]

The Silver Thong, on 30 October 2012 - 03:58 AM, said:

Is the US ready for a Morman prez.  I doubt it. however lets ignore that fact.

I'll take a mormon over a Black Liberation Theology advocate any day.

[catch-me-if-you-can]

I didn't read the post, simply because I don't care, but I couldn't resist the opportunity to say It's Party Time in '09!

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

Merc14, on 30 October 2012 - 04:02 AM, said:

I'll take a mormon over a Black Liberation Theology advocate any day.

His attendance at a Black Liberation Theology church would make him a believer in that, not an advocate as he's said not a whit about killing off whitey etc.
Which may actually be worse - if they are beliefs he genuinely holds.

[The Silver Thong]

Merc14, on 30 October 2012 - 04:02 AM, said:

I'll take a mormon over a Black Liberation Theology advocate any day.

Really, you think this is racial.  I will take an atheist over a believer anyday.  Theology is for who ever make a stance. Or don`t. Get religion out of my face.  Do you think religion needs a part in politics.

Edited by The Silver Thong, 30 October 2012 - 05:13 AM.

[The Silver Thong]

Merc14, on 30 October 2012 - 04:02 AM, said:

I'll take a mormon over a Black Liberation Theology advocate any day.

goes to show how brainwashing works so easy. politics is so easy to read but yet we see religion just doing it`s thing lol

[ImaLoner]

The Silver Thong, on 30 October 2012 - 03:58 AM, said:

Is the US ready for a Morman prez.  I doubt it. however lets ignore that fact.

Well, remember there was buzz when Kennedy was running.... all the "ohmigod, he's a Catholic".  I care not what a person's religion is.  I am more concerned with one's intent and actions.  I think most people will be/are thinking along those same lines.  Now.. it would just be a matter of those people deciding who best mirrors their own hopes for the direction of the country.

[Leave Britney alone!]

Merc14, on 30 October 2012 - 04:02 AM, said:

I'll take a mormon over a Black Liberation Theology advocate any day.

This just shows how you think.

[and then]

Chasingtherabbit, on 30 October 2012 - 08:15 AM, said:

This just shows how you think.

Well, yeah, making a statement of belief tends to do that doesn't it?  I'm one of those southern "Bible thumpers" and as a group we feel that Mormonism is a type of cult.  Having said that, I will GLADLY vote for Mitt Romney over the current occupant -  in no small measure -  because he sat in such a hate filled "church" for so long and has obviously hearkened to it's messages.  Obama has done nothing to make this country better.  He has taken a bad economic situation and made it worse IMO.  No one could snap fingers and have just made the problem go away but his policies made things worse and if Romney IS elected you will see this is true.  Once investors have some clue that they aren't going to lose even more of their wealth to government they will start lending and spending so the can do what wealthy people do - try to MAKE money.  Shameless lot that they are they will drag all of us into more prosperity while they are doing it.

[Leave Britney alone!]

I don't think Mormonism is a cult or even a type of cult. It won't be a reason why I vote or don't vote for someone. Neither will be their race, ethnicity, gender, or anything else of that nature.

As far as the rest of your spiel, I am sure you believe it, I don't.

[TrueBeliever]

and then, on 30 October 2012 - 08:26 AM, said:

Well, yeah, making a statement of belief tends to do that doesn't it?  I'm one of those southern "Bible thumpers" and as a group we feel that Mormonism is a type of cult.  Having said that, I will GLADLY vote for Mitt Romney over the current occupant -  in no small measure -  because he sat in such a hate filled "church" for so long and has obviously hearkened to it's messages.  Obama has done nothing to make this country better.  He has taken a bad economic situation and made it worse IMO.  No one could snap fingers and have just made the problem go away but his policies made things worse and if Romney IS elected you will see this is true.  Once investors have some clue that they aren't going to lose even more of their wealth to government they will start lending and spending so the can do what wealthy people do - try to MAKE money.  Shameless lot that they are they will drag all of us into more prosperity while they are doing it.

i wish life was as simple as you portray it! gee, we would all be well off.