The UK votes to remain in the EU...

[keithisco]

Not as crazy as it might appear on first look:

with anti - EU sentiment increasing throughout the Bloc, particularly in the Netherlands, France, Latvia, Greece (and increasingly so Germany) it is entirely possible that the UK could be left in a "rump - EU" after other nations choose to leave. What then of the importance of the EU to UK trade?

These "exit" nations would have a huge head start in negotiating bi-lateral trade deals for themselves with the UK being heavily disadvantaged through adherence to EU Trade Policy.

Whilst this is merely hypothetical, I see it as the greatest danger to the UK if it votes to "Remain"... "Remainers" would literally become "Remnants" locked into an inevitable train crash.

Does anyone else share these concerns? Am I just talking Hogwash (entirely possible)?

[Waspie_Dwarf]

I understand what you are saying but I also could see advantages for the UK if the situation you talk about occurred, especially if Germany left.

One of the problems with the EU is that it has become increasingly unwieldy, with 28 nations all with their own individual national interests making the changes the EU needs is increasingly difficult. A reduction in numbers could make such reforms easier.

More importantly would be if Germany left. The powerful German economy means that they tend to be the most powerful nation in the EU, particularly when allied with the French. If Germany left the UK would become the most powerful economy within the EU.

The fear of other nations leaving would cause the EU to reform. The French, who have their own Euro-sceptics, particularly the Front National are likely to want to form a powerful new alliance in order to remain in the EU and the logical choice would be the UK.

Your hypothetical situation could lead to the EU the UK actually wants, improve the UK European and global standing and give the UK all the advantages of membership with far fewer of the disadvantages.

Of course, this being a totally hypothetical situation, I could also be talking total hogwash.

[Black Monk]

That's the danger of Britain voting to remain in the EU. Britain will have voted to remain on the Titanic rather than get off with a lifeboat before it hits the iceberg. But if Britain votes to stay in the EU, when the EU disaster befalls us - because it will happen - all those who voted to Leave would just say to the Remainers: "We told you so." Then the Remainers would see the enormity of their mistake in keeping Britain in the EU and be mightily embarrassed - and then there'll be another referendum.

My betting is that, if we do the stupid thing and vote to remain in the EU, we'll have another referendum by 2020. I've been saying that for a long time.

[Guest Br Cornelius]

This is all presupposed on the fantasy that the EU is about to disintegrate - which there is little real evidence for.

Germany will never leave the EU, despite a sector of its own population wanting an exit. Every country has its nationalist factions but they have never been in the ascendency since the second world war. if neither Greece, Ireland or Portugal have left the EU in the face of their own economic crisis there is zero chance that any of the main players will exit.

There is a lot of hysteria going on. It would take something of the magnitude of a collapse of the United States of America to precipitate the collapse of the EU - which is unlikely to happen regardless of what the doom sayers think.

It is highly unlikely that even the UK will exit after a relentless diet of hard economic home truths have been delivered on a daily basis. If we are lucky the only outcome will be the collapse of the Conservative party.

Br Cornelius

Edited April 23, 2016 by Br Cornelius

[questionmark]

Despite all that, I doubt that the EU will look the way it does now in 10 years because this crisis has shown one thing: they can't go on pretending to be 25 sovereign nations that do not depend on each other. And I guess you are right, Germany will not leave but my prediction is that they are reviving the "Europe of two speeds".

[Guest Br Cornelius]

Despite all that, I doubt that the EU will look the way it does now in 10 years because this crisis has shown one thing: they can't go on pretending to be 25 sovereign nations that do not depend on each other. And I guess you are right, Germany will not leave but my prediction is that they are reviving the "Europe of two speeds".

I have no issues with the EU looking radically different to how it looks now. A system set in ice is doomed to die, what the current crisis has shown are the systemic weaknesses of the structures. The first step to solving problems is to identify them. I think the future of the EU is very bright, and the main reason I say this is because the coming demographic (the youth of today) are totally onboard with the principles and goals.

Br Cornelius

[LV-426]

It is highly unlikely that even the UK will exit after a relentless diet of hard economic home truths have been delivered on a daily basis.

That's one way of describing it.

Another would be "relentless diet of scaremongering and speculative propaganda to further the interests of the self-serving elite on a daily basis." The latest of course being Barack Obama's friendly offer of putting us to the "back of the queue" for trade should we decide to emancipate ourselves from the EU.

[questionmark]

That's one way of describing it.

Another would be "relentless diet of scaremongering and speculative propaganda to further the interests of the self-serving elite on a daily basis." The latest of course being Barack Obama's friendly offer of putting us to the "back of the queue" for trade should we decide to emancipate ourselves from the EU.

I am sorry to put it so bluntly: as far as trade is concerned the UK is as relevant to the US as Samoa, when it comes to pick and choose between the UK and the EU the US will sideline the UK, because face it, it cannot even begin to produce the relevance of the EU. That was not scaremongering, that was just a statement of fact.

The other fact that came through in Obama's statement is: the US would hate to loose the UK as partner, but if it has to be it will be. The USA is no longer dealing with the Empire but with a very small part of the world. In fact, the EU is more akin to the Empire nowadays than the UK can aspire to be over the next 500 years.

[Guest Br Cornelius]

That's one way of describing it.

Another would be "relentless diet of scaremongering and speculative propaganda to further the interests of the self-serving elite on a daily basis." The latest of course being Barack Obama's friendly offer of putting us to the "back of the queue" for trade should we decide to emancipate ourselves from the EU.

You can use whatever words you like but those truths will continue to flow out no matter how hard you stamp your little foot and shake your fist at the sky.

PS- Obama has consistently told the UK American economic policy, that they get no special privileges out of the EU and they will be playing hard ball on treaty negotiations - he is simply pointing out a well known fact in diplomatic circles - to which he is entitled. It shows a complete ignorance to claim that the UK will get better trading terms with the USA outside of the EU - but that is one of the main delusions that the exit crowd are peddling.

Br Cornelius

[LV-426]

I am sorry to put it so bluntly: as far as trade is concerned the UK is as relevant to the US as Samoa, when it comes to pick and choose between the UK and the EU the US will sideline the UK, because face it, it cannot even begin to produce the relevance of the EU. That was not scaremongering, that was just a statement of fact.

Trade with the UK with a population of 65 million is as relevant as Samoa with a population of around 180,000?

Fair enough. If it's of that little relevance anyway, we can certainly live without it. Maybe it's time to further develop trade relations with China and Russia.

Edit:

The other fact that came through in Obama's statement is: the US would hate to loose the UK as partner, but if it has to be it will be. The USA is no longer dealing with the Empire but with a very small part of the world. In fact, the EU is more akin to the Empire nowadays than the UK can aspire to be over the next 500 years.

Why is it that some people still get hung up on the British Empire, like a grudge is still being borne? If we were a power-hungry nation, we'd probably be wanting closer ties with Europe. The bottom line for most Brits seeking an EU exit is that they want a peaceful, comfortable life away from global politics, where we determine our own laws. It's the Camerons of this world that want to play the "Game of Thrones."

Again though, if we're such an irrelevant part of the EU, why are so many outside the UK so keen on telling us we should stay? It certainly doesn't feel like a concerned family member looking out for our best interests.

Edited April 23, 2016 by LV-426

[LV-426]

You can use whatever words you like but those truths will continue to flow out no matter how hard you stamp your little foot and shake your fist at the sky.

PS- Obama has consistently told the UK American economic policy, that they get no special privileges out of the EU and they will be playing hard ball on treaty negotiations - he is simply pointing out a well known fact in diplomatic circles - to which he is entitled. It shows a complete ignorance to claim that the UK will get better trading terms with the USA outside of the EU - but that is one of the main delusions that the exit crowd are peddling.

Br Cornelius

We can both use whatever words we like Br, and there are no "truths" as yet, only unknowns. My feet are average size by the way

[Guest Br Cornelius]

Again though, if we're such an irrelevant part of the EU, why are so many outside the UK so keen on telling us we should stay? It certainly doesn't feel like a concerned family member looking out for our best interests.

Then I think you are misreading the signals entirely since what America wants is s strong partner and it sees the best way to get that is as part of the EU. It knows that Britains influence will be much diminished outside of the EU - so it is concerned for one of its strongest allies is losing influence.

Br Cornelius

[LV-426]

Then I think you are misreading the signals entirely since what America wants is s strong partner and it sees the best way to get that is as part of the EU. It knows that Britains influence will be much diminished outside of the EU - so it is concerned for one of its strongest allies is losing influence.

Br Cornelius

I'm not misreading them. I agree with you, America wants Britain as its proxy within Europe.

The reply was to questionmark's comments regarding "a very small part of the world." Pretty insulting when you consider Britain has been America's biggest ally in its power trips in the Middle-East. Young British men and women shed blood fighting America's "War on Terror", despite a lot of resistance back home to our involvement.

Personally, I'm sick of these political games. I'd like to see our borders shut to all but those who want to become part of Britain, and have something to offer to the nation. Maybe then people will stop seeing us as "the old enemy" grasping onto our past Empire, and we can live in peace in our "very small part of the world."

[godnodog]

This is all presupposed on the fantasy that the EU is about to disintegrate - which there is little real evidence for.

Germany will never leave the EU, despite a sector of its own population wanting an exit. Every country has its nationalist factions but they have never been in the ascendency since the second world war. if neither Greece, Ireland or Portugal have left the EU in the face of their own economic crisis there is zero chance that any of the main players will exit.

There is a lot of hysteria going on. It would take something of the magnitude of a collapse of the United States of America to precipitate the collapse of the EU - which is unlikely to happen regardless of what the doom sayers think.

It is highly unlikely that even the UK will exit after a relentless diet of hard economic home truths have been delivered on a daily basis. If we are lucky the only outcome will be the collapse of the Conservative party.

Br Cornelius

At any give moment, at most people considered the discussion of what would happen of leaving the Eurozone, and eveb that was a pure academic exercice, the EU never.

[questionmark]

I'm not misreading them. I agree with you, America wants Britain as its proxy within Europe.

The reply was to questionmark's comments regarding "a very small part of the world." Pretty insulting when you consider Britain has been America's biggest ally in its power trips in the Middle-East. Young British men and women shed blood fighting America's "War on Terror", despite a lot of resistance back home to our involvement.

Personally, I'm sick of these political games. I'd like to see our borders shut to all but those who want to become part of Britain, and have something to offer to the nation. Maybe then people will stop seeing us as "the old enemy" grasping onto our past Empire, and we can live in peace in our "very small part of the world."

You are trying to convert simple and plain economical interests into something personal. The question to ask is what does Britain have that the US needs? And the answer is: not much. Now ask what does the EU have that the US needs? Well, frankly, a whole lot, starting from precision mechanics to build F-16s to Schott glass for Nasa's optics besides European companies propping up Detroit. So, who will be more relevant as trading partner? Right!.

[godnodog]

Again though, if we're such an irrelevant part of the EU, why are so many outside the UK so keen on telling us we should stay? It certainly doesn't feel like a concerned family member looking out for our best interests.

Who said the UK was an irrelevant part of the EU? Never heard no one of importance ever to say that.

As far as I´m concern I want the UK to be the balancing member to Germany policies, since France is something that I am not quite sure of what it is nowadays. What happens is that sometimes the UK is considered to be slowing down new policies, which can be bad and can be GOOD, depends on the situation.

As much as I want the UK to be part of the EU, I do want UK to do the referendum.

Obama explained why the US position is for the UK to be part of the EU, I agree with him, but I also think that UK should get some exceptions from the EU for several specific reasons of the country itself.

Edited April 23, 2016 by godnodog

[stevewinn]

Not as crazy as it might appear on first look:

with anti - EU sentiment increasing throughout the Bloc, particularly in the Netherlands, France, Latvia, Greece (and increasingly so Germany) it is entirely possible that the UK could be left in a "rump - EU" after other nations choose to leave. What then of the importance of the EU to UK trade?

These "exit" nations would have a huge head start in negotiating bi-lateral trade deals for themselves with the UK being heavily disadvantaged through adherence to EU Trade Policy.

Whilst this is merely hypothetical, I see it as the greatest danger to the UK if it votes to "Remain"... "Remainers" would literally become "Remnants" locked into an inevitable train crash.

Does anyone else share these concerns? Am I just talking Hogwash (entirely possible)?

If we vote to remain it will be a disaster for us, they'll take it as Green light for, forever closer union. If a country the size of the UK cannot breakaway there is no chance of anyone else. - The EU in ten years time will be six members larger, including Turkey. we'll be bordering Syria, Iran and Iraq. If thats not bad enough - only two countries will be outside the Euro currency the UK and Denmark. Qualified majority voting will be in full force and our chances of ever winning a vote again go out the window. We'll be well on the way to a United states of Europe. a Federation, one central government, one central bank, one single currency. all the powers - Its so damn bad, that i fear War will be the only exit solution for anyone wanting to leave. it might be 20 years, 30 years, but it will happen, people cannot simply accept the crap coming our way. That's why we need to Vote out in this referendum and leave them to their fate.

Edited April 23, 2016 by stevewinn

[Guest Br Cornelius]

If we vote to remain it will be a disaster for us, they'll take it as Green light for, forever closer union. If a country the size of the UK cannot breakaway there is no chance of anyone else. - The EU in ten years time will be six members larger, including Turkey. we'll be bordering Syria, Iran and Iraq. If thats not bad enough - only two countries will be outside the Euro currency the UK and Denmark. Qualified majority voting will be in full force and our chances of ever winning a vote again go out the window. We'll be well on the way to a United states of Europe. a Federation, one central government, one central bank, one single currency. all the powers - Its so damn bad, that i fear War will be the only exit solution for anyone wanting to leave. it might be 20 years, 30 years, but it will happen, people cannot simply accept the crap coming our way. That's why we need to Vote out in this referendum and leave them to their fate.

The one institution which has prevented war in Europe is going to lead to war in Europe. Your logic is flawless as ever.

Br Cornelius

[A rather obscure Bassoon]

Who said the UK was an irrelevant part of the EU? Never heard no one of importance ever to say that.

As far as I´m concern I want the UK to be the balancing member to Germany policies, since France is something that I am not quite sure of what it is nowadays. What happens is that sometimes the UK is considered to be slowing down new policies, which can be bad and can be GOOD, depends on the situation.

As much as I want the UK to be part of the EU, I do want UK to do the referendum.

Obama explained why the US position is for the UK to be part of the EU, I agree with him, but I also think that UK should get some exceptions from the EU for several specific reasons of the country itself.

Who cares about exceptions ?

We want our own sovereignty back, make our own Laws and trade with whom we please.Obama is as relevant as yesterday and bringing him will backfire on Cameron hopefully unseat him. Boris Johnson was always seen as a bit of a Clown but for me he would make a better Prime minister than Cameron is or will be.

[A rather obscure Bassoon]

The one institution which has prevented war in Europe is going to lead to war in Europe. Your logic is flawless as ever.

Br Cornelius

Disagree, I could actually see a time when the big boys of the EUSSR would use force to prevent smaller nations leaving.

[Guest Br Cornelius]

Disagree, I could actually see a time when the big boys of the EUSSR would use force to prevent smaller nations leaving.

Thats a vivid imagination you have there.

We want our own sovereignty back, make our own Laws and trade with whom we please

i can only assume you are an expat from your last statement, since if you were a Canadian you would be talking absolute rubbish.

Br Cornelius

[stevewinn]

The one institution which has prevented war in Europe is going to lead to war in Europe. Your logic is flawless as ever.

Br Cornelius

oh that's right biggest genocide since World War 2, Bosnia 1995 NATO sorted that mess out, - But lets pretend it was the EU. How about Kosovo 1998, Oh yes NATO again. but lets pretend it was the EU, - how about we fast forward to Ukraine, Oh yes, a conflict brought to European borders thanks to a disastrous EU foreign expansionist policy. NATO again to the rescue. how quickly this could turn into a conflict with Russia.

On that matter of Ukraine, The EU commission Tweeted, yes tweeted, proposed Visa Free travel for Ukrainian citizens to the EU. - average monthly wage in Ukraine £120. how many will be coming in the near future? - and Yet another country who needs propping up, another future member to take its place at the trough. and by the time Ukraine joins the UK will lose its rebate in 2020, meaning our EU contribution is guaranteed to double.

But were not surprised are we - remember when the EU needed more money, so they recalculated the British economy. and deduced that non-taxed & illegal activities of prostitution and drug dealing should be counted towards GDP figures and on that basis demanded £1.7Billion. and we paid it, and at the time the Hospital nurses wanted a 1% pay rise (cost £700milliom) and the Government said no, but then went on to pay the EU that £1.7Billion. priorities people.

Oh you was talking about since world war 2, the EU has kept the peace. besides there being no appetite for war, the little nugget of NATO troops being based in Europe. over 1 million Americans after WWII, to 250,000 in the 1960's to 80,000 in 2009 to 50,000 2015. and then add in the British army numbers, 890,000 after WWII, 130,000 1950's to 45,000 80's to 20,000 in 2011. But yes it was the EU that kept the peace.

get your head into the book. Peacekeeping in the Abyss: British and American Peacekeeping Doctrine and Practice after the Cold War. By Robert M. Cassidy (Ph.D.)

pull your head out of your ass. whenever conflict has started in Europe NATO and more importantly the USA to rescue. EU who? exactly

[Guest Br Cornelius]

oh that's right biggest genocide since World War 2, Bosnia 1995 NATO sorted that mess out, - But lets pretend it was the EU. How about Kosovo 1998, Oh yes NATO again. but lets pretend it was the EU, - how about we fast forward to Ukraine, Oh yes, a conflict brought to European borders thanks to a disastrous EU foreign expansionist policy. NATO again to the rescue. how quickly this could turn into a conflict with Russia.

On that matter of Ukraine, The EU commission Tweeted, yes tweeted, proposed Visa Free travel for Ukrainian citizens to the EU. - average monthly wage in Ukraine £120. how many will be coming in the near future? - and Yet another country who needs propping up, another future member to take its place at the trough. and by the time Ukraine joins the UK will lose its rebate in 2020, meaning our EU contribution is guaranteed to double.

But were not surprised are we - remember when the EU needed more money, so they recalculated the British economy. and deduced that non-taxed & illegal activities of prostitution and drug dealing should be counted towards GDP figures and on that basis demanded £1.7Billion. and we paid it, and at the time the Hospital nurses wanted a 1% pay rise (cost £700milliom) and the Government said no, but then went on to pay the EU that £1.7Billion. priorities people.

Oh you was talking about since world war 2, the EU has kept the peace. besides there being no appetite for war, the little nugget of NATO troops being based in Europe. over 1 million Americans after WWII, to 250,000 in the 1960's to 80,000 in 2009 to 50,000 2015. and then add in the British army numbers, 890,000 after WWII, 130,000 1950's to 45,000 80's to 20,000 in 2011. But yes it was the EU that kept the peace.

get your head into the book. Peacekeeping in the Abyss: British and American Peacekeeping Doctrine and Practice after the Cold War. By Robert M. Cassidy (Ph.D.)

pull your head out of your ass. whenever conflict has started in Europe NATO and more importantly the USA to rescue. EU who? exactly

Steve - those nations were outside of the EU which rather proves my point.

Also, until people like you are prepared to advocate for an integrated European army we will have to continue to rely on the EU's diplomatic and cooperative aspects to maintain peace in Europe. Since I suspect that is not what you want then I think supporting the institutions of the Eu is the best way to continue to maintain peace within the EU.

Br Cornelius

Edited April 24, 2016 by Br Cornelius

[A rather obscure Bassoon]

Speaking to Friends and Family back in the UK and it seems Obama may have given Brexit a little boost, Dodgy Dave in number 10 may have shot himself in the foot.

[A rather obscure Bassoon]

i can only assume you are an expat from your last statement, since if you were a Canadian you would be talking absolute rubbish.

Br Cornelius

Yes, I am an expat and still eligible to vote, and I will be doing my bit to save my Country.