To me your method seems to boil down to simply using one's intuition to assess a situation.
Which is great, and definitely extremely efficient, but only provides practical answers if one has a well-developed intuition regarding that situation.
And I don't think there is any means of developing one's intuition for a particular situation other than via long and thorough experience.
The goal of meteorology (and all science, for that matter) is to gain understanding and develop predictive models that anyone can apply, regardless of whether or not they have had direct experience.
In 1966 the Soviets landed a spaceprobe on the moon; at that point no human pilot had ever landed anything on the moon, but the landing was successful (and done more or less on autopilot) because the scientists and engineers who planned the flight path of the probe understood classical mechanics, and could predict how the probe would behave near the moon.