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Obama blames Mexican Gun Violence on America


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#16    Jessica Christ

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 08:50 AM

View PostRafterman, on 04 May 2013 - 05:49 AM, said:

Here is an interesting piece from Stratfor on where the guns are coming from in Mexico.

They are using data from 2008 for a report in 2011? Best advice is not to overly rely on that report.

Newer data is also available even if they do not have their hands on it. In 2009 the ATF began training Mexican authorites to use e-trace. [link]

Then we have to consider the source. According to the Atlantic:

Quote

The group's reputation among foreign policy writers, analysts, and practitioners is poor; they are considered a punchline more often than a source of valuable information or insight. As a former recipient of their "INTEL REPORTS" (I assume someone at Stratfor signed me up for a trial subscription, which appeared in my inbox unsolicited), what I found was typically some combination of publicly available information and bland "analysis" that had already appeared in the previous day's New York Times. A friend who works in intelligence once joked that Stratfor is just The Economist a week later and several hundred times more expensive. As of 2001, a Stratfor subscription could cost up to $40,000 per year.

Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously

Fox also attempted to discredit the 90% figure by claiming it was 17% which is higher than Statfor's estimate (which Stratfor used horrible math since they are claiming less than 12% of "all guns siezed", no one is going to know the actual percentage of all the guns seized since only a few were sent to us to be traced and not all of those could be traced, out of those we can trace we then derive a working sample, any percentage has to be drawn from the working sample. The working sample will not be totally accurate but is way more accurate than claiming less than 12%.

That sample revealed 87% can be traced to us.

Quote

This means that the 87 percent figure relates to the number of weapons submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF that could be successfully traced and not from the total number of weapons seized by Mexican authorities or even from the total number of weapons submitted to the ATF for tracing. In fact, the 3,480 guns positively traced to the United States equals less than 12 percent of the total arms seized in Mexico in 2008 and less than 48 percent of all those submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF for tracing. This means that almost 90 percent of the guns seized in Mexico in 2008 were not traced back to the United States.

http://www.stratfor....90-percent-myth

Back to Fox. According to FactCheck.org:

Quote

The Myth of 17 Percent


According to a Fox News report, titled "The Myth of 90 Percent," only "17 percent of guns found at Mexican crime scenes have been traced to the U.S." But the 17 percent figure is a myth, too. The reporters made some mistaken assumptions about how many guns had actually been traced to U.S. sources.

Fox News reporters William La Jeunesse and Maxim Lott note, quite correctly, that Mexico doesn't submit all the guns it recovers to the U.S. for tracing. Furthermore, Fox News reported, this is "because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S." And it quoted a law enforcement official as to why:


Fox News, April 2: "Not every weapon seized in Mexico has a serial number on it that would make it traceable, and the U.S. effort to trace weapons really only extends to weapons that have been in the U.S. market," Matt Allen, special agent of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told FOX News.


If that’s true, then the guns given to ATF for tracing constitute a badly biased sample of all crime guns seized in Mexico. But the ATF officials we contacted don’t confirm that. What an ATF spokesperson would say is that the agency could trace more than 90 percent of all the guns submitted by Mexico to the U.S. – they either originated in this country or were imported here before heading south.




However that may be, the Fox figure of 17 percent is based on a misreading of some confusing House subcommittee testimony by ATF official William Newell. The Fox reporters come up with a figure of 5,114 guns traced to U.S. sources in fiscal 2007 and 2008. That figures to 17.6 percent of the 29,000 figure for guns seized in Mexico, as given by the country's attorney general.

The 5,114 figure is simply wrong. What Newell said quite clearly is
that the number of guns submitted to ATF in those two years was 11,055: "3,312 in FY 2007 [and] 7,743 in FY 2008." Newell also testified, as other ATF officials have done, that 90 percent of the guns traced were determined to have come from the U.S. So based on Newell's testimony, the Fox reporters should have used a figure of 9,950 guns from U.S. sources. That figures out to just over 34 percent of guns recovered, assuming that the 29,000 figure supplied by Mexico's attorney general is correct.

Even that number is too low. At our request, an ATF spokesman gave us more detailed figures for how many guns had been submitted and traced during those two years. Of the guns seized in Mexico and given to ATF for tracing, the agency actually found 95 percent came from U.S. sources in fiscal 2007 and 93 percent in fiscal 2008. That comes to a total of
10,347 guns from U.S. sources for those two years, or 36 percent of what Mexican authorities say they recovered.

The mistake the Fox News reporters made was to focus on some numbers given by Newell and Hoover in separate testimony, regarding numbers of guns traced to specific states. But not all guns traced to the U.S. can be traced to specific states. The Fox numbers are "a subset" of the actual total traced to U.S. sources, one official said.


http://www.factcheck...xicos_guns.html

I understand there is a fulltime mill which fills in the demand to those who mistrust our government. That does not make the information being fed to that audience (who mistrusts are government and president) as accurate.

Many of us believe in a fully functional society and the checks and balances that stabilize a democracy. It is true that the corporations have influenced our election process and politicians and that we need more checks and balances to counter that, those checks and balances are required because the framers never could have known of the corporate influence that would be introduced throughout the march of time, but for those who believe our government is always lying are clearly in the land of conspiracy theory.

The 90% is drawn from a working sample and is the most current and accurate estimate we could make by using only unclassified information. I understand this will not reach the depths of conspiracy theorists and mainstream malcontents who do not care for true analysis but for those who can appreciate, rest easy.

Our government is telling us the truth about this.

Do not allow the fear of others to diminish the perceived quality of your life. Stress can have worse effects than smoking and rob years of your life and rob you from your family, friends, and all those you could help in the future by just being you. Minimize stress as much as possible.

Do not believe conspiracy theories which cause you to stress.

The only sensible next step is to advocate diminishing the gray and black markets that fuel the cartels. Too many victims are being made there and we require more security from our neighbors to maintain stability continent-wide as we become more integrative.

Edited by Leave Britney alone!, 04 May 2013 - 09:31 AM.


#17    Kowalski

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 12:39 PM

View PostDan, on 04 May 2013 - 08:41 AM, said:

Why would the admin order thousands of weapons to go to the most violent, criminal organizations in Mexico? While, at the same time, complain about US weapons going into Mexico? Why?

Well their twisted and sick plan backfired when it became public.

The DOJ, at the highest level, have done its best to stonewall any investigation and cover their bloody tracks. But the trail is clear enough and leads straight to the top. Highly ****ing diabolical and impeachable. If the fox is watching the hen-house who is watching the fox? Epic failure @ the DOJ, FBI and the NSA. Too busy building that super data center maybe.




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#18    Rafterman

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 02:47 PM

View PostLeave Britney alone!, on 04 May 2013 - 08:50 AM, said:

They are using data from 2008 for a report in 2011? Best advice is not to overly rely on that report.

Newer data is also available even if they do not have their hands on it. In 2009 the ATF began training Mexican authorites to use e-trace. [link]

Then we have to consider the source. According to the Atlantic:



Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously

Fox also attempted to discredit the 90% figure by claiming it was 17% which is higher than Statfor's estimate (which Stratfor used horrible math since they are claiming less than 12% of "all guns siezed", no one is going to know the actual percentage of all the guns seized since only a few were sent to us to be traced and not all of those could be traced, out of those we can trace we then derive a working sample, any percentage has to be drawn from the working sample. The working sample will not be totally accurate but is way more accurate than claiming less than 12%.

That sample revealed 87% can be traced to us.



http://www.stratfor....90-percent-myth

Back to Fox. According to FactCheck.org:



http://www.factcheck...xicos_guns.html

I understand there is a fulltime mill which fills in the demand to those who mistrust our government. That does not make the information being fed to that audience (who mistrusts are government and president) as accurate.

Many of us believe in a fully functional society and the checks and balances that stabilize a democracy. It is true that the corporations have influenced our election process and politicians and that we need more checks and balances to counter that, those checks and balances are required because the framers never could have known of the corporate influence that would be introduced throughout the march of time, but for those who believe our government is always lying are clearly in the land of conspiracy theory.

The 90% is drawn from a working sample and is the most current and accurate estimate we could make by using only unclassified information. I understand this will not reach the depths of conspiracy theorists and mainstream malcontents who do not care for true analysis but for those who can appreciate, rest easy.

Our government is telling us the truth about this.

Do not allow the fear of others to diminish the perceived quality of your life. Stress can have worse effects than smoking and rob years of your life and rob you from your family, friends, and all those you could help in the future by just being you. Minimize stress as much as possible.

Do not believe conspiracy theories which cause you to stress.

The only sensible next step is to advocate diminishing the gray and black markets that fuel the cartels. Too many victims are being made there and we require more security from our neighbors to maintain stability continent-wide as we become more integrative.

I wasn't trying to discredit the 90% figure (frankly, it already has been discredited by the Justice Department and the Inspector General).  I was simply showing that there are many additional sources of guns coming into Mexico that far outpace the number coming from the US and provide firearms that are more preferred by the cartels.

As for STRATFOR, after doing some searching, it seems that your buddy at the Atlantic (and you scoff at people who use Fox News as a source?) seems to be the most vocal critic.  And while you seem to want to elevate his analysis above others, it's also important to note that their work has been used by every major news agency in the US and many around the world.  STRATFOR has its problems for sure, but my posting of the article wasn't an endorsement of the organization.  Again, I was simply offering an expanded analysis on where the guns are coming from in Mexico.  If you would like to offer counter data and analysis, feel free.

The E-Trace entry on Wikipedia is also somewhat interesting:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETrace .  The timeline clearly shows how the figures varied significantly on how effective the tracking system really is.  Also of note is how it fails to take into account firearms that were legally sold to Mexico by the US Government and then found their way into the hands of the cartels - shocking I know.

And finally, this really isn't about conspiracy mongering.  It's about governmental incompetence and corruption - on both sides of the border.

Edited by Rafterman, 04 May 2013 - 02:49 PM.

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#19    Jessica Christ

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Posted 04 May 2013 - 06:45 PM

View PostRafterman, on 04 May 2013 - 05:49 AM, said:

Here is an interesting piece from Stratfor on where the guns are coming from in Mexico.

http://www.stratfor....90-percent-myth

While there is a healthy black market trade in arms from the US to Mexico, according to Startfor, the arms that are more and more favored by the cartels are straight up military - fully automatic assault rifles, main battle rifles, light machine guns, and in some cases grenades and RPGs.  These weapons are coming from the police, the Mexican military, the Chinese, and other Central/South American countries, not the US in any large numbers.

The Atlantic has another piece that disputed your claim in bold above.

Quote

As many as 120,000 people in Mexico have been murdered since 2006, many from a bullet to the back of the head. Most of these killings are committed not with assault rifles, but rather pistols and revolvers. Many are perpetrated by hit-men tied to narco-cartels, but some occur in confrontations with soldiers and police.

Made in the U.S.A.: The Role of American Guns in Mexican Violence

The difference between The Atlantic and Strafor is that The Atlantic is a journalist organization founded by Emerson, Longellow, and others, and if they are outright lyring about anything in their report then their journalists can be confronted and discredited leading to major embarassment for the publication and a loss of employment for the journalist.

Statfor on the other hand is a privatized corporate intelligence agency that also works most heavily with corporations, most of their income will come from this, not interviews and spots for FOX or other less-biased media outlets. For example their relationship with Goldman Sachs is documented via a WikiLeaks dump when it comes to their corpotate ties.

Statfor is simply part of the intelligence community, the same one that has no accountability to the public, the same one that mininformed Bush and an American public that Sadamm was behind 9-11 when it just was not true.

While their assessment taken as a whole does include bland facts (the kind MSM solicits from then) there are portions which are inaccurate.

View PostRafterman, on 04 May 2013 - 02:47 PM, said:

I wasn't trying to discredit the 90% figure (frankly, it already has been discredited by the Justice Department and the Inspector General).  I was simply showing that there are many additional sources of guns coming into Mexico that far outpace the number coming from the US and provide firearms that are more preferred by the cartels.

Where is the source for your claim that it has "already" been discredited by the Justice Department and the Inspector General? And which Inspector General, the US currently has 73 of them.

Well?

Edited by Leave Britney alone!, 04 May 2013 - 06:58 PM.


#20    Rafterman

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Posted 05 May 2013 - 01:39 PM

View PostLeave Britney alone!, on 04 May 2013 - 06:45 PM, said:

The Atlantic has another piece that disputed your claim in bold above.



Made in the U.S.A.: The Role of American Guns in Mexican Violence

The difference between The Atlantic and Strafor is that The Atlantic is a journalist organization founded by Emerson, Longellow, and others, and if they are outright lyring about anything in their report then their journalists can be confronted and discredited leading to major embarassment for the publication and a loss of employment for the journalist.

Statfor on the other hand is a privatized corporate intelligence agency that also works most heavily with corporations, most of their income will come from this, not interviews and spots for FOX or other less-biased media outlets. For example their relationship with Goldman Sachs is documented via a WikiLeaks dump when it comes to their corpotate ties.

Statfor is simply part of the intelligence community, the same one that has no accountability to the public, the same one that mininformed Bush and an American public that Sadamm was behind 9-11 when it just was not true.

While their assessment taken as a whole does include bland facts (the kind MSM solicits from then) there are portions which are inaccurate.



Where is the source for your claim that it has "already" been discredited by the Justice Department and the Inspector General? And which Inspector General, the US currently has 73 of them.

Well?


Statfor on the other hand is a privatized corporate intelligence agency that also works most heavily with corporations, most of their income will come from this, not interviews and spots for FOX or other less-biased media outlets. For example their relationship with Goldman Sachs is documented via a WikiLeaks dump when it comes to their corpotate ties.

Statfor is simply part of the intelligence community, the same one that has no accountability to the public, the same one that mininformed Bush and an American public that Sadamm was behind 9-11 when it just was not true.


And you accuse me of conspiracy mongering?    Interesting.

As to my source, well, here you go:

http://www.justice.g...s/ATF/e1101.pdf

U.S.

Department of Justice

Office of the Inspector General

Evaluation and Inspections Division

Review of

ATF’s Project Gunrunner

November 2010


"You can't have freedom of religion without having freedom from the religious beliefs of other people."

#21    Jessica Christ

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Posted 05 May 2013 - 03:24 PM

That report does not support your claim that, "the 90% figure....has been discredited by the Justice Department and the Inspector General."

In fact that report repeats the claim that, "In 2009, ATF reported to Congress that about 90 percent of the gunsrecovered in Mexico that ATF has traced were initially sold in the United States."

There is a footnote where in September 2010 the, "ATF told the OIG that the 90-percent figure cited to Congress could be misleading because it applied only to the small portion of Mexican crime guns that are traced. ATF could not provide updated information on the percentage of traced Mexican crime guns that were sourced to (that is, found to be manufactured in or imported through) the United States."

Page 15 of 152

The ATF telling the OIG "could be", in the course of following up on a report, and referring to the problem of basing an estimate on a "small portion" (i.e., a small sample) is hardly the Justice Department's OIG discrediing the ATF's 90% estimate, which is still the best estimate we have.

Until we have that updated information we are not going to be able to derive a more accurate estimate.

The chances of the best estimate we have now, based on that small sample, being completely off the mark presents its own odds if you were a gambling man. When we do have more updated information it won't be surprising that the number of guns going from the US into Mexico will still be wildly high and that updated figure won't be based on gambling odds or the misrepresentation of a simple report from the Justice Department, as has been done on this very thread.


Edited by Leave Britney alone!, 05 May 2013 - 03:35 PM.


#22    Bama13

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 06:50 PM

View Postsupervike, on 04 May 2013 - 03:02 AM, said:

I don't know why people use text shortcuts on a fully recognizable keyboard.

It just makes stuff hard to read.

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