Jump to content




Welcome to Unexplained Mysteries! Please sign in or create an account to start posting and to access a host of extra features.


* * * * * 1 votes

The big climate-change myth


  • Please log in to reply
359 replies to this topic

#151    Doug1o29

Doug1o29

    Majestic 12 Operative

  • Member
  • 5,737 posts
  • Joined:01 Aug 2007
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:oklahoma

Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:18 PM

View PostBFB, on 24 September 2013 - 03:36 PM, said:

Most data is available to everyone. Sure you might have to spend some money getting it but to be fair collecting data isn't cheap, in some cases.
In dendrochronology, the written datasets are proprietary and owned by the person who created them, but the cores are the property of the sponsoring institution.  In Europe they tend to get positively nasty about protecting their rights.  In America, most dendro datasets are available from the NOAA tree ring site (So are a few European ones, usually unbeknownst to the authors.).  There are some that are kept at the place where they were first created, but if you ask, the authors are usually highly flattered that somebody is interested in their data and will email it to you for free.

If you really want to double-check the work, you will need to go to the place where the cores are archived, borrow a microscope and re-read them yourself.  It makes little sense to say that somebody made a mistake in analysis, then trust that same person to have read the cores correctly.  Most reading mistakes can be detected using correlation or pointer analysis using the data at hand.  Often, the exact year that is misread can be determined.  If you find such a mistake, the easy solution to the problem is to delete that one reading from the dataset.  As there are cracks, knots, hazel marks, fire scars and other defects in cores, it is routine to delete readings that can't be made accurately.  You won't usually find that kind of mistake, though because the author will have run the tests himself.

If all else fails, take an increment borer and go to the place where the cores were collected and make your own collection.  It is polite to get permission from the owner first, but I know of one collection that the National Park Service still hasn't found out about.  If you have gone to all the trouble to make your own collection, you have something that you can publish, so work it up and publish it.

Many dendro publications are beginning to insist that ownership of datasets be turned over to them prior to publication.  They then make the dataset available to anyone who wants it, usually for a fee.  This allows readers to re-run analyses they are suspicious of.
Doug

P.S.:  If you make your own collection, take an extra increment borer.  A broken bit can be a disaster - take it from an experienced hand at core collecting.
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#152    Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

    Omnipotent Entity

  • Member
  • 9,788 posts
  • Joined:13 Aug 2008
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eire

  • Stupid Monkeys.

    Life Sucks.
    Get over it.

Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:19 PM

View PostBFB, on 24 September 2013 - 03:44 PM, said:

Completely agree.

Don't get my started on the whole polar bear thing. Polar Bears are not dying out because of global warming.
Actually in recent years there have been an increase in polar bears.
Polar bears don't need ice to survive. We had polar bears on this planet, when we had an ice free arctic in the past.

Your point is one I have been trying to advocate so many times.
There are to much politics in climate science, way to much.
Which you should know was due to a decrease in hunting, right ?

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#153    Doug1o29

Doug1o29

    Majestic 12 Operative

  • Member
  • 5,737 posts
  • Joined:01 Aug 2007
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:oklahoma

Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:27 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 24 September 2013 - 05:19 PM, said:

Which you should know was due to a decrease in hunting, right ?

Br Cornelius
As I recall, large parts of the Arctic were ice-free during the Altithermal.  Polar bears survived that just fine.  I'm not worried about an ice-free Arctic exterminating polar bears.

Apparently the increase in brown bear populations has forced some of them to explore what has always been polar bear habitat.  There are a few brown bear/polar bear crosses showing up.  Very nasty-tempered critters, I hear.
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#154    Little Fish

Little Fish

    Government Agent

  • Member
  • 4,000 posts
  • Joined:23 Jul 2009
  • Gender:Not Selected

  • The default position is to give a ****

Posted 26 September 2013 - 09:03 PM

View PostBFB, on 24 September 2013 - 02:24 PM, said:

But actually his data does show an increase in major hurricanes over the last 30 years
it's not statistically significant, he comments on wuwt.


#155    Big Bad Voodoo

Big Bad Voodoo

    High priest of Darwinism

  • Member
  • 9,582 posts
  • Joined:15 Nov 2010
  • Gender:Male

Posted 26 September 2013 - 09:27 PM

I admire patience of Little Fish. Im mean it is scientificly prooven that AGW is myth. But Little Fish realy have patience with fringe theorists.

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."

#156    Doug1o29

Doug1o29

    Majestic 12 Operative

  • Member
  • 5,737 posts
  • Joined:01 Aug 2007
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:oklahoma

Posted 26 September 2013 - 11:54 PM

View PostBig Bad Voodoo, on 26 September 2013 - 09:27 PM, said:

I admire patience of Little Fish. Im mean it is scientificly prooven that AGW is myth. But Little Fish realy have patience with fringe theorists.
And that about says it as far your understanding of science goes.   Science can't "prove" anything, except in the probabilistic sense used in statistics.  And these days, nearly all science is statistics-based.  And from where I sit, YOU TWO are the fringe theorists, with apologies to the theorists.
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#157    Little Fish

Little Fish

    Government Agent

  • Member
  • 4,000 posts
  • Joined:23 Jul 2009
  • Gender:Not Selected

  • The default position is to give a ****

Posted 27 September 2013 - 12:09 AM

View PostBFB, on 23 September 2013 - 10:32 AM, said:

What do you mean?

TSI or total solar irradiance is the amount of solar energy that's hits Earths atmosphere. Meaning that its TSI which can change the earth energy budget.

Hoyts figure 10 is a TSI reconstruction.
"In this paper we examine
several different solar indices measured over the past century that are potential proxy measures for the
Sun's irradiance. These indices are (1) the equatorial solar rotation rate, (2) the sunspot structure, the
decay rate of individual sunspots, and the number of sunspots without umbrae, and (3) the length and
decay rate of the sunspot cycle. Each index can be used to develop a model for the Sun's total
irradiance as seen at the Earth. Three solar indices allow the irradiance to be modeled back to the
mid-1700s. The indices are (1) the length of the solar cycle, (2) the normalized decay rate of the solar
cycle, and (3) the mean level of solar activity. All the indices are well correlated, and one possible
explanationf or their nearly simultaneousv ariationsi s changesi n the Sun's convectivee nergy
transport. Although changes in the Sun's convective energy transport are outside the realm of normal
stellar structure theory (e.g., mixing length theory), one can imagine variations arising from even the
simplest view of sunspots as vertical tubes of magnetic flux, which would serve as rigid pillars affecting
thee nergfylo wp atternbsy ensurinlagr ger-scaelded iesA. composisteo lairr radiancmeo delb, ased
upon these proxies, is compared to the northern hemisphere temperature departures for 1700-1992.
Approximately 71% of the decadal variance in the last century can be modeled with these solar indices,
although this analysis does not include anthropogenic or other variations which would affect the
results. Over the entire three centuries, -•50% of the variance is modeled
"
http://www.leif.org/EOS/93JA01944.pdf

other TSI reconstructions, would use cosmogenic proxies,c14, be10 etc to model TSI, Hoyt is a composite of various solar effects, for instance sunspots which not only effect TSI, but are a measure for magnetic effects. Hoyts reconstruction maybe a better representation of solar influence on climate than other proxies that model just TSI.
Hoyt is remarkably well correlated with temperatures in the arctic which would suggest that solar activity (rather than just TSI) accounts for the majority of warming in the arctic, sunspots and flares after all produce more plasma above the arctic cirlce, its not unreasonable to suggest this may effect climate. true TSI measurements would not include any of this, I'm not an expert but I follow the discussions.


#158    MonkeyLove

MonkeyLove

    Ectoplasmic Residue

  • Member
  • Pip
  • 233 posts
  • Joined:11 May 2010

Posted 27 September 2013 - 04:43 AM

"4 Climate Myths You'll Hear This Week"

http://www.motherjon...mate-myths-ipcc


#159    Big Bad Voodoo

Big Bad Voodoo

    High priest of Darwinism

  • Member
  • 9,582 posts
  • Joined:15 Nov 2010
  • Gender:Male

Posted 27 September 2013 - 07:50 AM

View PostDoug1o29, on 26 September 2013 - 11:54 PM, said:

And that about says it as far your understanding of science goes.   Science can't "prove" anything, except in the probabilistic sense used in statistics.  And these days, nearly all science is statistics-based.  And from where I sit, YOU TWO are the fringe theorists, with apologies to the theorists.
Doug

No Doug, in this story you are Fringie theorist. But I dont think you are source of it. You just retell what others "scientists" have spoken.

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."

#160    Frank Merton

Frank Merton

    Blue fish

  • Member
  • 12,586 posts
  • Joined:22 Jan 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

  • I dunno --

Posted 27 September 2013 - 07:56 AM

I have mentioned several times that all the popular science journals I respect and read regularly (Science, Nature, Scientific American, Science Weekly) regularly publish articles on human-caused global warming and regularly include editorials warning about it and debunking the deniers.

I am not competent to assess all the stuff posted here, except in light of the above, which tends me to figure the denial of this process, which some of you act as though it were a given, is unscientific and political.  Even though I have posted this point several times, no one has yet responded.  Do all of the established scientific magazines have it wrong?

Please don't tell me they are in someone's pocket or there is some sort of conspiracy, cause if you do I will know exactly what conclusion about you to draw.


#161    Big Bad Voodoo

Big Bad Voodoo

    High priest of Darwinism

  • Member
  • 9,582 posts
  • Joined:15 Nov 2010
  • Gender:Male

Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:01 AM

Frankie, I know your mother language isnt English so I just want to correct you on above.
On English and in science we said: Sceptics not deniers!
Dont take it as law just as lession!

Edited by Big Bad Voodoo, 27 September 2013 - 08:03 AM.

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."

#162    Big Bad Voodoo

Big Bad Voodoo

    High priest of Darwinism

  • Member
  • 9,582 posts
  • Joined:15 Nov 2010
  • Gender:Male

Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:02 AM

Little Fish, if Saru decided that we vote for member of the year, you should get award! for patience, spreading truth, sceptical thoughts, insights, civil, easygoing, friendly debate.

Edited by Big Bad Voodoo, 27 September 2013 - 08:03 AM.

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."

#163    Frank Merton

Frank Merton

    Blue fish

  • Member
  • 12,586 posts
  • Joined:22 Jan 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

  • I dunno --

Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:07 AM

View PostBig Bad Voodoo, on 27 September 2013 - 08:01 AM, said:

Frankie, I know your mother language isnt English so I just want to correct you on above.
On English and in science we said: Sceptics not deniers!
Dont take it as law just as lession!
Actually I know that.  English allows one to coin words using accepted roots (deny) and accepted suffixes ("-er} for person who does the root.  There is a considerable difference in meaning, since skeptic is one who questions and is open but a denier is one who denies outright.  I sometimes do that when I cannot think of an acceptable translation for a Vietnamese word, although in this case I've been using the structure for awhile.


#164    Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

    Omnipotent Entity

  • Member
  • 9,788 posts
  • Joined:13 Aug 2008
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eire

  • Stupid Monkeys.

    Life Sucks.
    Get over it.

Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:08 AM

View PostBig Bad Voodoo, on 26 September 2013 - 09:27 PM, said:

I admire patience of Little Fish. Im mean it is scientificly prooven that AGW is myth. But Little Fish realy have patience with fringe theorists.
Quite the opposite, little fish and yourself are firmly in a fringe minority. LF is on the hard fringe of CT so your welcome to his good company. If you actually bothered to follow upon many of his dubious "facts" you might start to change your mind.

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#165    Big Bad Voodoo

Big Bad Voodoo

    High priest of Darwinism

  • Member
  • 9,582 posts
  • Joined:15 Nov 2010
  • Gender:Male

Posted 27 September 2013 - 08:12 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 27 September 2013 - 08:08 AM, said:

Quite the opposite, little fish and yourself are firmly in a fringe minority. LF is on the hard fringe of CT so your welcome to his good company. If you actually bothered to follow upon many of his dubious "facts" you might start to change your mind.

Br Cornelius

Oh we have "consensus" here too?

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users