This year there has been a massive swing in likely voters from 2008 to 49% leaning republican vs. 46% leaning democrat. This equates to a 15 % relative change in voter affiliation in 3 years. Couple this with the enthusiasm gap that is roughly 6%-10% in republican's favor as compared to a democrat 12% advantage in 2008 and you have to wonder how viable a poll in Ohio giving Obama +9 in democrat turnout is, especially since it was a little greater than half that in 2008 at the peak of Obamamania.
The usual suspects will poo-poo these numbers but take my word for it, or do your own research and you'll realize that these shifts will have a massive effect on November 6th. Many pollsters have been using the +9 democrat advantage because pollsters are trying to adjust for such massive shifts from their 2008 samples.
Bottom-line is if Obama is tied or just 1 point ahead in a poll that is biased +9 democrats, he is in huge trouble. This will also mean, IMHO, a much better than predicted republican victory in the senate. Romney isn't going to just squeak out a victory next Tuesday, he is going to win big, in the neighborhood of 320 electoral votes or more plus 52% to 48% popular vote. The republicans will take the senate and keep the house. Pollsters and MSM will be humiliated. Can't wait to see Matthews cry on air.
Edited by Merc14, 30 October 2012 - 03:43 AM.