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Global warming at a standstill


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#16    Little Fish

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:25 PM

you are resorting to misrepresenting what I am saying again.

Quote

Extreme weather events have been on a higher and increasing rate for more than the 16years
they have? such as?
we've been over this, did you forget?

Edited by Little Fish, 09 January 2013 - 11:28 PM.


#17    Br Cornelius

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:32 PM

View PostLittle Fish, on 09 January 2013 - 11:25 PM, said:

you are resorting to misrepresenting what I am saying again.

they have? such as?
we've been over this, did you forget?
Extreme precipitation and heatwaves have shown a definite upward trend - or did you forget ?


Would you like to try to use an extreme event (1998) to disprove extreme events :clap:

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 09 January 2013 - 11:42 PM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#18    Little Fish

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:40 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 09 January 2013 - 11:32 PM, said:

Extreme precipitation and heatwaves have shown a definite upward trend - or did you forget ?

Br Cornelius
IPCC turns sceptic on cyclones, floods and droughts
http://blogs.news.co...s_and_droughts/


#19    Br Cornelius

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:45 PM

View PostLittle Fish, on 09 January 2013 - 11:40 PM, said:

IPCC turns sceptic on cyclones, floods and droughts
http://blogs.news.co...s_and_droughts/

Look to every reporting continent and there is a  clear upward trend in precipitation an extreme precipitation events(even the Antarctic).

And I will take Pielkes selective quoting with the skeptism it deserves.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 09 January 2013 - 11:47 PM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#20    Little Fish

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:54 PM

I'll take Pielke over an anonymous internet activist.


#21    Br Cornelius

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:57 PM

Lovely top chat again - but its off to bed for me.
There's only so much life to waste on these little chats.

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#22    Little Fish

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:54 AM

<deleted double post>

Edited by Little Fish, 10 January 2013 - 09:55 AM.


#23    Little Fish

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:54 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 09 January 2013 - 11:45 PM, said:

Look to every reporting continent and there is a clear upward trend in precipitation an extreme precipitation events(even the Antarctic).

CAMS-OPI precipitation data shows that global precipitation has decreased since 1979 (the last 34 years), here:

http://bobtisdale.fi...png?w=960&h=624

...don't forget this will you.

Quote

the current ongoing wild weather across the globe is evidence that the effects are starting to manifest at an increasing rate. Statistically each of those extreme weather events is adding to an overall trend of rising catastrophic weather.
way too funny.


#24    Br Cornelius

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:54 AM

American precipitation trends;

Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States
Thomas R. Karl and Richard W. Knight

"Twentieth century trends of precipitation are examined by a variety of methods to more fully describe how precipitation has changed or varied. Since 1910, precipitation has increased by about 10% across the contiguous United States. The increase in precipitation is reflected primarily in the heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. For example, over half (53%) of the total increase of precipitation is due to positive trends in the upper 10 percentiles of the precipitation distribution. These trends are highly significant, both practically and statistically. The increase has arisen for two reasons. First, an increase in the frequency of days with precipitation ]6 days (100 yr)−1[ has occurred for all categories of precipitation amount. Second, for the extremely heavy precipitation events, an increase in the intensity of the events is also significantly contributing (about half) to the precipitation increase. As a result, there is a significant trend in much of the United States of the highest daily year–month precipitation amount, but with no systematic national trend of the median precipitation amount.
These data suggest that the precipitation regimes in the United States are changing disproportionately across the precipitation distribution. The proportion of total precipitation derived from extreme and heavy events is increasing relative to more moderate events. These changes have an impact on the area of the United States affected by a much above-normal (upper 10 percentile) proportion of precipitation derived from very heavy precipitation events, for example, daily precipitation events exceeding 50.8 mm (2 in.).
"
http://journals.amet...STOPAF>2.0.CO;2


Trends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record
Pavel Ya Groisman

"Observed changes in intense precipitation (e.g., the frequency of very heavy precipitation or the upper 0.3% of daily precipitation events) have been analyzed for over half of the land area of the globe. These changes have been linked to changes in intense precipitation for three transient climate model simulations, all with greenhouse gas concentrations increasing during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and doubling in the later part of the twenty-first century. It was found that both the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations and model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States. Although there can be ambiguity as to the impact of more frequent heavy precipitation events, the thresholds of the definitions of these events were raised here, such that they are likely to be disruptive. Unfortunately, reliable assertions of very heavy and extreme precipitation changes are possible only for regions with dense networks due to the small radius of correlation for many intense precipitation events.
"
http://journals.amet...1175/JCLI3339.1


Trends in precipitation and streamflow in the eastern U.S.: Paradox or
perception?

David Small

"Many studies have reported that total precipitation is
increasing across the United States with most of the increase
resulting from a positive trend in the upper tail of the daily
precipitation distribution. Other studies have found that
low and moderate, but not high flows are also increasing
across much of the United States. How can precipitation,
especially that produced by intense events, increase
without a corresponding increase in high flows? We
analyzed trends in annual 7-day low, average and high
flows along with seasonal precipitation that is averaged
over individual basins. Our findings suggest that
statistically significant trends in both fall precipitation
and 7-day low flow are found in a large percentage of the
basins in the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes regions of
the country. A large fraction of the trends in annual
precipitation can be explained by an increase in fall
precipitation. By estimating trends in precipitation at the
spatial scale of individual basins, we offer a simple
explanation for the apparent paradox of lack of trends in
high flows. At the spatial scale of individual basins,
precipitation is increasing during the fall but not during the
spring, the season when high flows are generally observed.
The increase in fall precipitation appears to result in an
increase in the low flows while the lack of trends in
precipitation in spring explains the lack of widespread
trends in the high flows. Citation: Small, D., S. Islam, and
R. M. Vogel (2006), Trends in precipitation and streamflow in
the eastern U.S.: Paradox or perception?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33,
L03403, doi:10.1029/2005GL024995."

http://engineering.t...-streamflow.pdf

Meanwhile in Europe;

Consistency of recent European summer precipitation trends and extremes with future regional climate projections
Jeremy S. Pal, Filippo Giorgi, Xunqiang Bi
"Summer climate over Europe in recent decades has been characterized by a drying trend and by the occurrence of especially devastating drought and flood events, such as in the summers of 2002 and 2003. We compare these trends with results from regional climate model simulations of future climate over Europe under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG). We find that the projected changes in mean summer precipitation and large-scale circulations are remarkably consistent with the observed changes in recent decades. Although we cannot directly attribute the observed changes to an anthropogenic GHG forcing, this result suggests that the observed drying trend over most of Europe might continue in the future. Our experiments additionally indicate substantial changes in the intensity and persistence of summer drought and flood. We identify the Central Mediterranean and Central/Western Europe to be especially vulnerable to increases in both summer drought and flood."
http://onlinelibrary...019836/abstract


This one shows an important point about looking at precipitation records - on the large scale it can be argued that there is no trend, but on the regional level there are dramatic trends. The point is that with any dataset if you choose the wrong scale you can use them to mislead and draw just about any conclusion you like;

"Annual precipitation records averaged across Europe show no significant changes since 1950 according to the E-OBS dataset , based on the European Climate Assessment dataset [ii]. At the sub-continental scale, the trend in precipitation is most significant in north-eastern and south-western Europe. The majority of Scandinavia and the Baltic States have observed an increase in annual precipitation of greater than 14 mm per decade, with an increase of up to 70 mm per decade in western Norway. In contrast, annual precipitation has decreased in the Iberian Peninsula, in particular in north-western Spain and in northern Portugal (Figure 1). While there is some evidence linking land use, in particular forest cover, to local and regional precipitation patterns[iii], it is not clear if the relatively minor land-use changes since 1950 have influenced the observed precipitation trends.
"
http://www.eea.europ...on-1/assessment


Within Ireland there has been a century long upward trend in precipitation across the whole west of the country, yet on the East cost the trend has been flat or slightly downwards. You might conclude that precipitation has remainjed the same across Ireland - but that would be the wrong conclusion brought on by the wrong question.

As usual Little Fish, it all depends on how you choose to pick your cherries.

Any old idiot would find it difficult to argue that flooding hasn't become more of a serious issue across large parts of the world - all within the context of no overall global trend in precipitation. Britain has just experienced its greatest run of precipitation induced flooding in history, with many areas seeing flooding for the first time in centuries - which comes on the back of record breaking flooding within the last decade. Cherries Cherries Cherries.


It all has a baring on what climate change actually means. Climate is the prevailing pattern of weather in any given region, and climate change can be said to be happening when significant regional areas see shifts in the prvailing local weather systems. That is definiately happening and is far more dramatic than the "average" change of the Global climate system.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 10 January 2013 - 10:13 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#25    Little Fish

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:18 AM

I showed you the global data.
you picked the cherries.


#26    Br Cornelius

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:20 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 10 January 2013 - 10:18 AM, said:

I showed you the global data.
you picked the cherries.
You picked the big cherry by concentrating on one statistic which proved your point - and ignoring all the others which show the actual detailed context. Nice try :tu:

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#27    Little Fish

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:27 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 10 January 2013 - 10:20 AM, said:

You picked the big cherry by concentrating on one statistic which proved your point - and ignoring all the others which show the actual detailed context. Nice try :tu:

Br Cornelius
you are projecting.
http://en.wikipedia....ical_projection

it was you that highlighted precipitation when i asked you what extreme events you were referring to, global data actually shows a decline not an increase.
what "others" are you referring to? present some data if you have a point to make.


#28    Br Cornelius

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:34 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 10 January 2013 - 10:27 AM, said:

you are projecting.
http://en.wikipedia....ical_projection

it was you that highlighted precipitation when i asked you what extreme events you were referring to, global data actually shows a decline not an increase.
what "others" are you referring to? present some data if you have a point to make.
Little Fish , if you don't want to understand what is happening then ignore the increase in extreme precipitation events across all regions and focus on your single stat. Thats the difference between me and you, I want to understand whats happening - you want to further your global control agenda.

"It is clear that climate change will change the UK's weather, says the Met Office's Pope, although it is too early to say exactly how the nation's complex weather patterns will be affected. But some predictions can be reasonably made, she says: "It is basic physics that warmer air can hold more water, so when you get rain, it is likely to be heavier. We have already seen over the last 50 years that there are more extreme rain events now."

http://www.guardian....ather-dangerous

PS- that graph you linked to - more cherry picking of time intervals. Care to share ist source.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 10 January 2013 - 10:40 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#29    Little Fish

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:40 AM

putting johnny nonsense to bed




#30    Br Cornelius

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:50 AM

Bob Tidsdale - need I say more :tu: .
I gave you scientific papers - you gave me crap (41 minuits of my life which I would never get back).

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 10 January 2013 - 10:53 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson




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