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Chaos Theory vs. Determinism


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#16    Phenomenon

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 11:02 AM

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You can come up with all the scientific jargon that you want Nameless One, but you are wrong 

"I am not a number, I am a free man. My life is my own"


Lol, you wish.  


#17    mowo

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 11:08 AM

No one will ever be able to successfully predict a persons actions to a precise level of accuracy. Yes, there are always certain factors like psychology or experience which may influence an event, but what if someone makes a decision by a flip of a coin?
I understand the chaos theory argument that even an event like flipping a coin could be predicted by infinitely exhausting mathematics, but no one will ever be able to successfully achieve this. (unless you choose to believe in God whistling2.gif )

Every event that will ever occur is already 'predetermined' as there is no alternative existence, so where you are and what you are doing five years from now is set in stone, as there is no 'control' existence to compare it to. If the future doesnt exist, and 'time' or 'existence' is always moving, there is only one way events will occur as they havent occurred yet.

Premonitions are only our brains way of adding things up. We may have picked up slight clues as to an event, but our conscious mind has not recognised the signs. But when we sleep, the subconscious adds the pieces together and extrapolates a possible outcome. This is not always accurate as people tend to forget the inaccurate premonitions and remember and retell the accurate ones.

To summarise: No mortal will ever be able to accurately predict the future, whether by reading tea leaves or by complex mathematical equations. Now stop worrying about it and get some fresh air.




#18    DespondentDave

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 03:54 PM

QUOTE (mowo @ Mar 19 2004, 11:08 AM)

Every event that will ever occur is already 'predetermined' as there is no alternative existence, so where you are and what you are doing five years from now is set in stone, as there is no 'control' existence to compare it to. If the future doesnt exist, and 'time' or 'existence' is always moving, there is only one way events will occur as they havent occurred yet.

But the point is there are an infinite amount of possibilities of what that pre-determined future might be.


#19    mowo

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 04:15 PM

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But the point is there are an infinite amount of possibilities of what that pre-determined future might be.


But there is only ever one outcome from any set of events.

If you shuffle a pack of cards and lay one face down on the table. There is a one in 52 chance it will be the ace of spades, or a 1/52 chance the three of diamonds and so on.

But in fact it can only be one card, and thats the card it is.  


#20    The Nameless One

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Posted 20 March 2004 - 01:26 AM

QUOTE (mowo @ Mar 19 2004, 04:15 PM)
QUOTE
But the point is there are an infinite amount of possibilities of what that pre-determined future might be.


But there is only ever one outcome from any set of events.

If you shuffle a pack of cards and lay one face down on the table. There is a one in 52 chance it will be the ace of spades, or a 1/52 chance the three of diamonds and so on.

But in fact it can only be one card, and thats the card it is.

Sweet finally someone who is defending determinism.

Ok this means I can stop defending determinism and now defend my actual belief, which is Chaos Theory. (That was really hard defending determinism.)

Ok mowo, in Chaos theory says that maybe there can be 2 outcomes, say that you flip a coin 20 times and hope that it lands on heads that means there is a 1/20 chance that it will land on heads, now the odds against it would be 20/1.

This is where Chaos gets cool, say that 19/1 times it landed on heads, but the last time you flip the coin that it lands on it's edge. You actually never considered the possiblity of the coin flipping on it's edge, so the outcome becomes (to much to fathom because you can't measure the edge of a circle), the outcome was never predetermined, but only happened because of random occurrences working inside forces of equalibrium. You cannot determine what you do not have knowledge of. Therefore what you do not know cannot be predetermined.

The Nameless One

( This is only the beginning, but do not give up I have alot more to say.)




One night I ventured to my wooden rocking chair right outside my back porch, and I looked to the sky in the break of twilight, staring into the dark mirror of space, filled with sands of star dust, colossal supernovas and red giants, strings of wormholes and distant planets beyond my grasp. A place where tiny enigmatic hidden black holes tear through the fabric of space and time which, who knows; may lead into other dimensions and perhaps alternate realities. And as I look up at this heavens mirror which my hands can only reach so far through this looking glass, I felt an odd sensation of something looking back staring into my own eyes, staring into a whole other universe of which I new nothing about until I saw my reflection within it, and in that moment I then knew that the key which open the portal doors to parallel worlds was myself.    "The Eyes of the Universe, Chris Landrum"

#21    mowo

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Posted 23 March 2004 - 10:10 AM

But if you dropped the coin through a slot in a box and had no way of seeing how it had landed, would that alter the result?
It could have landed on its side, but just because you dont know whether it has or not doesnt alter the outcome.

As for the probability of a coin landing on its edge, it is obvious that the chances are slimmer than it landing on its side, but I do agree to work out the probability to any degree of accuracy would be difficult.

But then surely measuring your own height to any degree of accuracy would be difficult?
You could say 6 feet. Or to be more accurate 6 feet 2 inches. more accurate still 6 feet 2 3/4 inches, and so on until you are down to millionths of an inch.
So, theoretically this would make you infinitely tall, as without just rounding up, there is no limit to how accurate your calculations can be.


#22    Seraphina

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Posted 23 March 2004 - 02:13 PM

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Ok mowo, in Chaos theory says that maybe there can be 2 outcomes, say that you flip a coin 20 times and hope that it lands on heads that means there is a 1/20 chance that it will land on heads, now the odds against it would be 20/1.


That's not the best example...each individual toss is an unrelated factor. There is always, on each and every single throw, a 50/50 chance it will come up heads or tails, not a 20/1 chance. The fact that a coin came up heads in the first through will, in no way, affect the likelyhood of it being heads or tails in the next throw, as a result is not removed from the equation the first time it occurs.

Now, let's say if you had a bag filled with fifty jelly beans, twenty five of which were red, and twenty five were black, and you picked out twenty five, leaving each bean on a table when you did so...THEN it would be very surprising indeed with 24/25 of them were one colour, as you're limiting the factor each time you select it. Here, the occurance of a variable does have an effect on the likelyhood of it occuring again...a coin toss does not, as each individual toss still has a 50% chance of landing one way or the other, regardless of what the previous result was.

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Apparantly, over on Exchristian.Net, they say that I'm "probably the smartest person" on UM....that is so cool...

#23    The Nameless One

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Posted 24 March 2004 - 07:12 AM

QUOTE (Seraphina @ Mar 23 2004, 02:13 PM)
[Here, the occurance of a variable does have an effect on the likelyhood of it occuring again...a coin toss does not, as each individual toss still has a 50% chance of landing one way or the other, regardless of what the previous result was.

But I wasn't talking about the previous result, everyone knows that if you flip a coin you have 50/50 chance it will land on heads or tails. What I was saying is that if you flip a coin 20 times there are 20/20 chances that each flip will land on heads.
The actual probabilty of the coin landing on heads 20 times would be 1000/1000. Each flip gets a 50/50 chance to land on heads, after flipping it 20 times and it landing on heads everytime you just beat the odds.

Hey it's actually my bad Seraphina, because I got my point twisted the above was the point I was originally trying to get across.

But if the coin lands on it's edge, you can't measure the probability, because you can't measure the edge of a circle.


As for what Mowo said. Well Mowo lets say you drop a coin in box, let say at the same exact time you drop the coin that the coin splits in half. Part of the coin lands on heads and part of the coin lands on tails, that one coin you just dropped now has two outcomes instead of one.

What about splitting atoms? Ill give you some time to think about it, cause even if you don't well I do because it's now my bedtime. I will try tor respond within a couple of days. thumbsup.gif  

One night I ventured to my wooden rocking chair right outside my back porch, and I looked to the sky in the break of twilight, staring into the dark mirror of space, filled with sands of star dust, colossal supernovas and red giants, strings of wormholes and distant planets beyond my grasp. A place where tiny enigmatic hidden black holes tear through the fabric of space and time which, who knows; may lead into other dimensions and perhaps alternate realities. And as I look up at this heavens mirror which my hands can only reach so far through this looking glass, I felt an odd sensation of something looking back staring into my own eyes, staring into a whole other universe of which I new nothing about until I saw my reflection within it, and in that moment I then knew that the key which open the portal doors to parallel worlds was myself.    "The Eyes of the Universe, Chris Landrum"

#24    mowo

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Posted 29 March 2004 - 01:29 PM

the part about chaos theory I find difficult to swallow is the romanticism.
For example, the earlier analogy referring to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand being directly responsible for World war II. Although this was technically the 'straw that broke the camels back', the fact is that Europe was a tinderbox at the time. If it hadnt have been that which started it, something else would have.

for instance, if Hitlers father hadnt have got passionate on that particular night, or that particular sperm hadnt fertilized the egg, Nazism may never had occurred.

even though nature does contain some randomness, there are more powerful forces at work. Human nature/animal behaviour and the laws of physics.

You could hypothesize that if you went on a killing spree in a supermarket, you could affect a major piece of history. But the fact is that if you are not a knife wielding maniac by nature, then this probability will never occur.




#25    Kortef

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Posted 10 April 2004 - 04:19 AM

omg, i love this thread...Hmmmm it almost hurts the head lol...Determinism is what I believe. It is as though God makes us feel like we have freewill but all the while, we dont...Say for instance in ab earlier example in the thread someone said they can choose to go to the 8 10 train or 8 30...ya you can choose...say you choose 810, God or whatever greater being is out there, had already forseen your decision...

If you have seen the matrix movie, cause and effect is true, no matter how much you deny, you can try and tell yourself its not but it is. If i do something, there maybe be many outcomes in a situation, but the outcome I choose is already known to God. This whole universe's time has already been mapped out, otherwise predictions, psychics, etc would not exist.

No matter how much you dont like the idea, your life is in the hands of someone more powerful...your creator, and your destroyer. Freewill is an illusion.  


#26    The Proposer

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Posted 10 April 2004 - 03:34 PM

in the begining of this thread we were asked not to post about religion,but people seem religiously to believe in chaos theory.

things have order

if god exists he as lesser Gods administering other duties,Tony Blair for instance doesnt come to arrest you if you break the law,it is a policeman who works under the control of the government.

I suppose an infinite type of randomness exists,consider two snowflake crystals each are seperate things,and individually if thawed and refrozen can form infinite rebuilt patterns,or the infinite randomness of a carbon crystal compared to the infinite randomness of a sulphur crystal.,both are seperately very different,yet individually random.So ther is a base to the patterns formed.





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