182 replies to this topic

[Br Cornelius]

Quote

Annual layer analysis in two stalagmites collected from Spring Valley Caverns, southeastern Minnesota,
reveals hydrological response of the cave to extreme rainfall events in the Midwest, USA. Cave-flooding events
are identified within the two samples by the presence of detrital layers composed of clay sized particles.
Comparison with instrumental records of precipitation demonstrates a strong correlation between these
cave-flood events and extreme rainfall observed in the Upper Mississippi Valley. A simple model is developed
to assess the nature of rainfall capable of flooding the cave. The model is first calibrated to the last 50-yr
(1950–1998 A.D.) instrumental record of daily precipitation data for the town of Spring Valley and verified
with the first 50 yr of record from 1900 to 1949 A.D. Frequency analysis shows that these extreme flood events
have increased from the last half of the nineteenth century. Comparison with other paleohydrological records
shows increased occurrence of extreme rain events during periods of higher moisture availability. Our study
implies that increased moisture availability in the Midwestern region, due to rise in temperature from global
warming could lead to an increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events.

http://www.google.co...357700187,d.ZG4

Is this getting as boring for everyone else as it is for me ?

Br Cornelius

[Hasina]

minera, on 10 January 2013 - 04:38 PM, said:

I wish they would make up their minds about this global warming stuff.

'Climate change' is happening, 'global warming' is a misnomer.

[Br Cornelius]

Variety is the spice of life - how about india for a change;

Quote

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

http://www.sciencema...4/1442.abstract

Br Cornelius

[Br Cornelius]

Hasina, on 10 January 2013 - 06:13 PM, said:

'Climate change' is happening, 'global warming' is a misnomer.

Not really, climate is changing in response to global warming. The two happen in lock step and cannot be divided.

Br Cornelius

[Hasina]

Br Cornelius, on 10 January 2013 - 06:16 PM, said:

Not really, climate is changing in response to global warming. The two happen in lock step and cannot be divided.

Br Cornelius

Then you have the theorists saying that once the caps melt the Gulf Stream will 'shut down' this bringing us into some sort of another 'ice age'. I prefer 'climate change' to 'global warming' cause I always get irritated when my dad says 'well, it's too cold for global warming to be real'. -facepalm-

[Br Cornelius]

China anyone;

Quote

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains (above 25mm/day) in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving

t

test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978–1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country's average.

http://iopscience.io...0CCF4668005E.c3

Got anything more than that one graph Little Fish ??
Br Cornelius

[Br Cornelius]

Hasina, on 10 January 2013 - 06:18 PM, said:

Then you have the theorists saying that once the caps melt the Gulf Stream will 'shut down' this bringing us into some sort of another 'ice age'. I prefer 'climate change' to 'global warming' cause I always get irritated when my dad says 'well, it's too cold for global warming to be real'. -facepalm-

Best and latest evidence says that the Gulf Stream shutdown scenario is very unlikely to happen in an AGW world. Thats not to say that an ice free arctic  wont completely **** on all Northern hemisphere weather systems.
Most of the erratic recent weather across Northern Europe and America is best explained by the arctic melt and its effects on the jet stream.

Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

[Hasina]

Br Cornelius, on 10 January 2013 - 06:23 PM, said:

Best and latest evidence says that the Gulf Stream shutdown scenario is very unlikely to happen in an AGW world. Thats not to say that an ice free arctic  wont completely **** on all Northern hemisphere weather systems.
Most of the erratic recent weather across Northern Europe and America is best explained by the arctic melt and its effects on the jet stream.

Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

Thank ya BR. I need to delve into the links you've provided more once I have the time, seems I'm working off old data.

[Br Cornelius]

Australia and south east asia, less rainy days, but more extreme precipitation events;

Quote

Trends in extreme daily temperature and rainfall have been analysed from 1961 to 1998 for Southeast Asia and the
South Pacific. This 38-year period was chosen to optimize data availability across the region. Using high-quality data
from 91 stations in 15 countries, significant increases were detected in the annual number of hot days and warm
nights, with significant decreases in the annual number of cool days and cold nights. These trends in extreme
temperatures showed considerable consistency across the region. Extreme rainfall trends were generally less spatially
coherent than were those for extreme temperature. The number of rain days (with at least 2 mm of rain) has decreased
significantly throughout Southeast Asia and the western and central South Pacific, but increased in the north of
French Polynesia, in Fiji, and at some stations in Australia. The proportion of annual rainfall from extreme events
has increased at a majority of stations. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has declined at most stations (but not
significantly), although significant increases were detected in French Polynesia. Trends in the average intensity of the
wettest rainfall events each year were generally weak and not significant. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological
Society.

The Austrialian Government thinks there has been an increase in  extreme weather events;

Quote

Precipitation extremes showed a widespread and significant
increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent
compared with temperature change.

http://www.google.co...eIyge_APkjDHlzg


You know what - there's an easier way to find out if extreme weather events have increased - go ask your granny

How do you find denying the evidence of your own senses ?

Br Cornelius

[Br Cornelius]

Misuse of Means,medians and modes is one of the first thing which will get you a fail in any basic stats course.
Shame on you Little Fish

Br Cornelius

[Leah G.]

Hi There, this is Granny.... Here is what I've noticed... Better news coverage and more people all over the world saying the sky is falling. Not much on the weather though, we still have it.

[Br Cornelius]

Leah G., on 10 January 2013 - 07:07 PM, said:

Hi There, this is Granny.... Here is what I've noticed... Better news coverage and more people all over the world saying the sky is falling. Not much on the weather though, we still have it.

Sorry but the evidence disputes that position.

Br Cornelius

[AsteroidX]

What if Climate change and Global warming were happening concurrently.

[Hasina]

AsteroidX, on 10 January 2013 - 07:21 PM, said:

What if Climate change and Global warming were happening concurrently.

BR actually did say that, lol.

[keithisco]

Br Cornelius, on 10 January 2013 - 06:23 PM, said:

Best and latest evidence says that the Gulf Stream shutdown scenario is very unlikely to happen in an AGW world. Thats not to say that an ice free arctic  wont completely **** on all Northern hemisphere weather systems.
Most of the erratic recent weather across Northern Europe and America is best explained by the arctic melt and its effects on the jet stream.

Br Cornelius

Br Cornelius

Shutdown is unlikely, but between 1954 and 2004 the VOLUME of the flow reduced by 30%. Western Europe is dependent on the NAD to maintain temperatures in the Temperate zone. It also has an effect on the Jetstream in the atmosphere, leading to some some very extreme climatic variations, as witnessed last year in Northern Europe