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Ben Shalom Bernanke: What Are You Afraid Of?


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#16    Frank Merton

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:06 AM

The world economy is sub-par but not terrible.  This is I think mainly because of European digestion troubles, Obama's regulatory and tax attitudes, the Republican failure to understand economic reality, and a Chinese cycle.  Put them together and a few other less important things and you get what we see.

The main rule when there is little inflation and high unemployment is to avoid austerity.  People like Sanatelli are hard-money austerity no deficit types, and so disapprove of what the Fed is doing.  They are wrong and the Fed is right.

Oh, we get Bloomberg, Fox News, CNN, CNBC, BBC and several Australian and Asian news and business broadcasts.  The only thing I really miss about TV here as opposed to the States is PBS and the Cable Public Affairs Channels.  I don't miss the standard US networks one bit.

Edited by Frank Merton, 21 June 2013 - 08:09 AM.


#17    Yamato

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:07 AM

View PostRender, on 21 June 2013 - 07:57 AM, said:


If somebody is saying the economy is great, then you have to change your channel. Because the people at the top say anything but. Again, listen to the past and recent presentations Bernanke made. He repeatedly said we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves and that the economy is showing sings of recovery but isn't there yet at all.
Well who the hell is Ben Bernanke listening to?  Not anyone every day on every financial news network on cable.  I think you're putting all your faith into one guy and ignoring everyone else.   Who gave Ben Bernanke a monopoly on data?  

It's not "there yet" because as soon as he takes his foot off the pedal the economy is going to crash and that's not a popular thing to do when you're beholden to the politicians who appointed you.  Maybe Obama needs to appoint someone with a more pessimistic tone to sucker the dying middle class into owing the tab on another new round of stimulus juice?   That gloom money will be real good news to the people who own the assets and would love nothing more than to put you in even more of their debt.

"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela

#18    Render

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:12 AM

View PostYamato, on 21 June 2013 - 08:07 AM, said:

Well who the hell is Ben Bernanke listening to?  Not anyone every day on every financial news network on cable.  I think you're putting all your faith into one guy and ignoring everyone else.   Who gave Ben Bernanke a monopoly on data?  

It's not "there yet" because as soon as he takes his foot off the pedal the economy is going to crash and that's not a popular thing to do when you're beholden to the politicians who appointed you.  Maybe Obama needs to appoint someone with a more pessimistic tone to sucker the dying middle class into owing the tab on another new round of stimulus juice?   That gloom money will be real good news to the people who own the assets and would love nothing more than to put you in even more of their debt.

What???? This data is public knowledge, that's what markets reacts to. What the hell....so Bernanke is only drawing the conclusions everyone else can draw. Apart from the sensationlist conspiracy theorists.
It's not there yet because the numbers are only beginning to improve, so yes more stimulus is required to set a trend . DUh.


#19    Frank Merton

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:14 AM

I think it's probably about right to say the market will drop if interest rates go up.  They compete with each other.


#20    Yamato

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:15 AM

View PostRender, on 21 June 2013 - 08:03 AM, said:

Independent??? It's the only reason it's freaking out now and the past couple of weeks. Don't you follow the markets at all? . It's QE and the negative China reports. And when it's not that it will be speculation of what will happen in Europe.

Of course they are anxious, but prematurely now. They're freaking about something that may happen a year from now. And Bernanke isn't looking to drop the economy, he's looking for a soft landing. I'm very interested in seeing him attempt this.


If anything the markets are finally getting more realistic about reacting to the economy. How the markets move will become more and more dependent of the strenth of the economy, last couple of months have proven this.
Why are the markets only going to correlate to the economy now?   Market prices inflate just like any other prices.  No inflation in sight?   Do you follow the markets at all?

Bernanke is keeping interest rates at zero.  You can't do that forever.   Whatever statistic it is he's trying to centrally plan until it hits some magic figure he's arbitrarily deciding on isn't going to matter when the interest rates go back up and the bills come due.   This is repeating all the mistakes of the past like we haven't learned a thing.   You're interested in seeing an outcome because you're half-expecting a different result.  The difference between this result and the last result is this time the debt is going to be far greater than it was.

"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela

#21    Render

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:15 AM

View PostFrank Merton, on 21 June 2013 - 08:14 AM, said:

I think it's probably about right to say the market will drop if interest rates go up.  They compete with each other.
Of course, and that will be the challenge. To find a soft landing.

Edited by Render, 21 June 2013 - 08:16 AM.


#22    Yamato

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:23 AM

View PostRender, on 21 June 2013 - 08:12 AM, said:


What???? This data is public knowledge, that's what markets reacts to. What the hell....so Bernanke is only drawing the conclusions everyone else can draw. Apart from the sensationlist conspiracy theorists.
It's not there yet because the numbers are only beginning to improve, so yes more stimulus is required to set a trend . DUh.
Yeah, and the economy never worked without QE in the past.  We never allowed the necessary corrections, worked through the recessions and recovered without it.

I think you're subscribing to one hell of a good conspiracy theory to think that it has to continue being fixed like it has for the past six years in order to improve.  If you enjoy artificially high prices and fake recoveries, by all means, keep the faith.  Ben Bernanke's been wrong about everything he's ever said since he's been appointed Chairman.  I don't understand why anyone would believe a word he says.

"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela

#23    Render

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:27 AM

View PostYamato, on 21 June 2013 - 08:15 AM, said:

Why are the markets only going to correlate to the economy now?   Market prices inflate just like any other prices.  No inflation in sight?   Do you follow the markets at all?

Bernanke is keeping interest rates at zero.  You can't do that forever.   Whatever statistic it is he's trying to centrally plan until it hits some magic figure he's arbitrarily deciding on isn't going to matter when the interest rates go back up and the bills come due.   This is repeating all the mistakes of the past like we haven't learned a thing.   You're interested in seeing an outcome because you're half-expecting a different result.  The difference between this result and the last result is this time the debt is going to be far greater than it was.

The markets are beginning to correlate with the strength of the economy now, because since a couple of months ago we have been shown signs of recovery. And the market reacted fiercly bullish to it. When the strength of the economy is threatened by loosening QE, it reacted with a massive bear raid. See yesterday as a great example of this. So the markets are beginning to be more cautious and are looking at the numbers of the reports with eagle eyes. Looking for signs that go either way. As do the Feds, which is why they stated, if the economy doesn't keep up the current beginning of the trend, it will not loosen QE.

Inflation is not in sight no, you really have to read more data for this. Although it's pretty obvious.
Again, the outcome will be interesting. The Feds are trying to ignite a working autonomous economy, so if QE stops it can take the initial shock and just move on with little, possible, losses. That's the whole point.
If the economy is deemed strong enough to go ahead without QE, this is also means it is deemed strong enough to pay of debts.

Edited by Render, 21 June 2013 - 08:28 AM.


#24    Yamato

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:36 AM

View PostRender, on 21 June 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:


The markets are beginning to correlate with the strenth of the economy now, because since a couple of months ago we have been shown signs of recovery. And the market reacted fiercly bullish to it. When the strenth of the economy is threatened but loosening QE it reacted with a massive bear raid. See yesterday as a great example of this. So the markets are beginning to be more cautious and are looking at the numbers of the reports with eagle eyes. Looking for signs that go either way. As do the Feds, which is why they stated, if the economy doesn't keep up the current beginning of the trend, it will not loosen QE.

Inflation is not in sight no, you really have to read more data for this. Although it's pretty obvious.
Again, the outcome will be interesting. The Feds are trying to ignite a working autonomous economy, so if QE stops it can take the initial shock and just move on with little, possible, losses. That's the whole point.
If the economy is deemed strong enough to go ahead without QE, this is also means it is deemed strong enough to pay of debts.
No, recovery doesn't increase correlation.  The eyes aren't more eagle now than they were last year.   "Recovery" doesn't either.   What increases correlation is getting central planners and price fixers in marble halls using government power out of the way of the market so it can do what it's inevitably going to do anyway.   Distorting the market and inflating prices under zero percent interest rates for the people closest to the government money doesn't promote recovery.   The market would never have zero percent interest rates on its own.  When debt goes up and credit ratings go down, interest rates would rise.   Bathing the economy in artificial light is the opposite of correlation.  Who is "The Feds"?   In attempting to answer my questions, you're now smacking of ninjadude all of a sudden.   You already said that you think the outcome will be interesting, you don't have to repeat yourself.

"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela

#25    Render

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:43 AM

View PostYamato, on 21 June 2013 - 08:36 AM, said:

No, recovery doesn't increase correlation.  The eyes aren't more eagle now than they were last year.   "Recovery" doesn't either.   What increases correlation is getting central planners and price fixers in marble halls using government power out of the way of the market so it can do what it's inevitably going to do anyway.   Distorting the market and inflating prices under zero percent interest rates for the people closest to the government money doesn't promote recovery.   The market would never have zero percent interest rates on its own.  When debt goes up and credit ratings go down, interest rates would rise.   Bathing the economy in artificial light is the opposite of correlation.  Who is "The Feds"?   In attempting to answer my questions, you're now smacking of ninjadude all of a sudden.   You already said that you think the outcome will be interesting, you don't have to repeat yourself.

You are mistaking.
The eyes were more focussed on Europe last year and speculation of what might happen or not. It was pretty pointless. Now, since the economy is showing signs of improvement, they are focussed more and more on the numbers. Im sorry if you can't accept this simple truth. Maybe you should lay of the markets for a while, because all this panic and Santelli talk can't be good for you.

Apparantly i do have to repeat this bit: The Feds are trying to ignite a working autonomous economy, so if QE stops it can take the initial shock and just move on with little, possible, losses. That's the whole point.
If the economy is deemed strong enough to go ahead without QE, this is also means it is deemed strong enough to pay of debts.


If you still don't get it, then just leave this conversation all together.


#26    Yamato

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:47 AM

View PostFrank Merton, on 21 June 2013 - 08:06 AM, said:

The world economy is sub-par but not terrible.  This is I think mainly because of European digestion troubles, Obama's regulatory and tax attitudes, the Republican failure to understand economic reality, and a Chinese cycle.  Put them together and a few other less important things and you get what we see.

The main rule when there is little inflation and high unemployment is to avoid austerity.  People like Sanatelli are hard-money austerity no deficit types, and so disapprove of what the Fed is doing.  They are wrong and the Fed is right.

Oh, we get Bloomberg, Fox News, CNN, CNBC, BBC and several Australian and Asian news and business broadcasts.  The only thing I really miss about TV here as opposed to the States is PBS and the Cable Public Affairs Channels.  I don't miss the standard US networks one bit.
And when the GDP is below 3%, avoid austerity.  And when housing prices are still subdued, avoid austerity.  And when some CEO testifies in front of Congress that they need a bailout, avoid austerity.   There's hardly a reason left not to avoid austerity.   It's all political BS Frank, it's sad you can't see that.   The question is begged, how good does it have to get before they take away the punch bowl and let the hangover begin?  What are they so afraid of?  They're afraid of their house of cards falling over as soon as the foundation all these inflated prices are laying on gets removed.

"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela

#27    Render

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:47 AM

Maybe if i explain it in these terms:

Look at QE and economy as a baby being created in a petri dish. The environment of its creation might not be "natural" as we know it. But the result isn't any less real than another baby. It's still a child with a future and it will have to fight for itself once it gets taken out of its artificial environment.

Edited by Render, 21 June 2013 - 08:48 AM.


#28    Yamato

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 08:54 AM

View PostRender, on 21 June 2013 - 08:43 AM, said:


You are mistaking.
The eyes were more focussed on Europe last year and speculation of what might happen or not. It was pretty pointless. Now, since the economy is showing signs of improvement, they are focussed more and more on the numbers. Im sorry if you can't accept this simple truth. Maybe you should lay of the markets for a while, because all this panic and Santelli talk can't be good for you.

Apparantly i do have to repeat this bit: The Feds are trying to ignite a working autonomous economy, so if QE stops it can take the initial shock and just move on with little, possible, losses. That's the whole point.
If the economy is deemed strong enough to go ahead without QE, this is also means it is deemed strong enough to pay of debts.


If you still don't get it, then just leave this conversation all together.
Sorry, you can't tell me that the eyes weren't paying attention to the US last year because they were looking at Europe.  That's ridiculous.  Every major corporation in America pays attention to itself first.  There are more analysts analyzing the US economy than ever before.  

The economy has been showing signs of improvement for years now, on borrowed time and borrowed money and artificial economic conditions that bear no resemblance to what the market is going to do once those conditions are lifted.

"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela

#29    Render

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 09:04 AM

View PostYamato, on 21 June 2013 - 08:54 AM, said:

Sorry, you can't tell me that the eyes weren't paying attention to the US last year because they were looking at Europe.  That's ridiculous.  Every major corporation in America pays attention to itself first.  There are more analysts analyzing the US economy than ever before.  

The economy has been showing signs of improvement for years now, on borrowed time and borrowed money and artificial economic conditions that bear no resemblance to what the market is going to do once those conditions are lifted.

Quote

There are more analysts analyzing the US economy than ever before.

thanks for proving my point

Last year main focus was on Europe. The markets reacted more to political situations, less to hard data. Now that the economy is beginning to show a positive trend, as a results of all these years of stimulus, it's starting to focus on the data more. Because the results are finally being reaped. The Nas and Dow , S&P finally went higher than in the past. That got everyone's attention this year. Wake up.
Do you understand what trend means? It doesn't mean the usual up and downs of the market we've been seeing the last couple of year. It means a consistent path towards a certain direction. And this trend is now just starting to form, which deserves attention. which it is getting now. It's almost make or break time, and markets are showing it. So European politics are less important suddenly.

Edited by Render, 21 June 2013 - 09:04 AM.


#30    Yamato

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 09:20 AM

View PostRender, on 21 June 2013 - 09:04 AM, said:

thanks for proving my point

Last year main focus was on Europe. The markets reacted more to political situations, less to hard data. Now that the economy is beginning to show a positive trend, as a results of all these years of stimulus, it's starting to focus on the data more. Because the results are finally being reaped. The Nas and Dow , S&P finally went higher than in the past. That got everyone's attention this year. Wake up.
Do you understand what trend means? It doesn't mean the usual up and downs of the market we've been seeing the last couple of year. It means a consistent path towards a certain direction. And this trend is now just starting to form, which deserves attention. which it is getting now. It's almost make or break time, and markets are showing it. So European politics are less important suddenly.
No, I don't know where you're getting your information at but you need to look at a chart right away.   The recovery in the markets has been the trend for years already.  Europe and last year didn't do anything to this trend.   If you can't admit you're wrong after seeing any major stock index chart I will gladly carry the water and post here for you, then you don't know what you're talking about and you're hopelessly unable to admit it.

http://finance.yahoo...=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela




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