Who'll Blink THIS Time?

[+and-then]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/12/politics/iran-ship-yemen-humanitarian-supplies-pentagon/

Seems Iran's Navy got a little butt hurt about backing down the last time and now they want a do - over. Should be interesting to see how Oby explains allowing it to happen. And his people call Bibi a "chickenshit" sheesh...

And before the mud slinging begins - NO I do not want war between the US and Iran but I believe acting in a craven way will only cause it anyway.

[Leonardo]

Last time I looked at an atlas, Iran was right by the Strait of Hormuz and close to Yemen, and the US was thousands of miles away.

Has that changed while I wasn't looking?

[seeder]

And theres this version

On Saturday night, when the Iranian fleet was cruising 30 miles off the coasts of Yemen's southern seaport city of Aden, US and French forces in the area sent out several jets, helicopters and warships within a few miles of the Iranian vessels, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported Sunday.

After the commanding officer of the Alborz destroyer signaled a warning to them to stay away, the “intruders apologized and changed their course,”, the Iranian Navy said in a statement.

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20150511/1021988850.html

The intruders apologised?

[Occult1]

Considering the dire humanitarian situation in this country, I would say that Yemeni aid coming from Iran should be more than welcome.

Now there will no doubt be those who'll interpret this as some kind of plot to ensure the famous weapon delivery many have speculated about but I do think Tehran is really concerned about the whole thing, after all 45% of the Yemeni population are Shi'a muslims, so sympathy from Iran to their plight shouldn't be a surprise.

Edited May 13, 2015 by samus

[+and-then]

Considering the dire humanitarian situation in this country, I would say that Yemeni aid coming from Iran should be more than welcome.

Now there will no doubt be those who'll interpret this as some kind of plot to ensure the famous weapon delivery many have speculated about but I do think Tehran is really concerned about the whole thing, after all 45% of the Yemeni population are Shi'a muslims, so sympathy from Iran to their plight shouldn't be a surprise.

No one is attempting to stop humanitarian supplies. They are simply routing them through Djibouti. Iran has no need of "protecting" these ships since no naval battles have occurred. This is a p***ing contest and it's obvious why Iran is making the attempt. As I said, it will be interesting to see the excuse Obama uses to allow them to have their wish. S.A. may have a different take on all of it though...

[kartikg]

Hmm but why USA supplying weapons to SA is okay and Iran supplying to Yemen bad? Those rebels are very similar to the ones in Libya which USA supported ?

[Space Commander Travis]

No one is attempting to stop humanitarian supplies. They are simply routing them through Djibouti. Iran has no need of "protecting" these ships since no naval battles have occurred.

Then why the bugger does the US have a naval presence there? Oh sorry, i forgot, Uncle Sam is allowed to have military presence anywhere it likes, because it's more important than everywhere else. Edited May 13, 2015 by Norbert Dentressangle

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

No one is attempting to stop humanitarian supplies. They are simply routing them through Djibouti. Iran has no need of "protecting" these ships since no naval battles have occurred. This is a p***ing contest and it's obvious why Iran is making the attempt. As I said, it will be interesting to see the excuse Obama uses to allow them to have their wish. S.A. may have a different take on all of it though...

isnt the area rich with pirates?

[RoofGardener]

Hmm.... I've been slow on the uptake with these events. It appears that SA has mounted a land/sea/air blockade against Yemen. So, if the Iranian ship continues, it WILL be turned away from Harbour, which is - I believe - both illegal, and an act of war !

So, in a nutshell, Iran would be in conflict with SA, and NOT the US.

[+and-then]

Hmm.... I've been slow on the uptake with these events. It appears that SA has mounted a land/sea/air blockade against Yemen. So, if the Iranian ship continues, it WILL be turned away from Harbour, which is - I believe - both illegal, and an act of war !

So, in a nutshell, Iran would be in conflict with SA, and NOT the US.

It is the presence of the US fleet which caused the first Iranian attempt to falter. This move is their play because of that humiliation. Also, I suspect that Obama will try anything to keep S.A and Iran from open war. The humanitarian aid for Yemen is being coordinated by the UN through Djibouti and Iran knows this full well. If they want to press this to a crisis for the sake of pride then I hope their sailors swim well.

[+and-then]

Hmm but why USA supplying weapons to SA is okay and Iran supplying to Yemen bad? Those rebels are very similar to the ones in Libya which USA supported ?

Because the US has the power to defeat Iran if need be and wants to suppress their power in the region? Since when did fairness become the standard between armed rivals in the world? If it seems fit to you that Iran should be a regional Hegemon then I'd wonder about your take on hanging gays, stoning women and stirring bloody conflict in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. If you feel Iran better suited to lead the world than America or the West then I'd wonder about you in general.

[Space Commander Travis]

It is the presence of the US fleet which caused the first Iranian attempt to falter. This move is their play because of that humiliation.

(I) why was the US fleet there? If they had a good reason for doing so, why shouldn't Iran, which surely has equal interests in the area? Why should the US be allowed to but Iran shouldn't?

Also, I suspect that Obama will try anything to keep S.A and Iran from open war.

(II) No, really? Anxious to prevent a war? The man's clearly insane and should be removed from office at once!

Anyway, given how competent the US's Brave and Loyal Ally has been in most of the military campaigns it has taken part in, I shouldn't be too smug. Did you hear about the stories of Saudi pilots dropping bombs in the desert on their own side of the lines rather than run the risk of flying into enemy airspace in Gulf War I?

[Occult1]

No one is attempting to stop humanitarian supplies. They are simply routing them through Djibouti. Iran has no need of "protecting" these ships since no naval battles have occurred. This is a p***ing contest and it's obvious why Iran is making the attempt. As I said, it will be interesting to see the excuse Obama uses to allow them to have their wish. S.A. may have a different take on all of it though...

The Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) is a non-political organziation. If they want to deliver the 2,600 tons of aid relief right in the hand of the Yemeni people, than they have every right to. They also have doctors on board to treat the people in need. Does Yemen belong to Saudi Arabia or the US? Not at all.

At some point the Saudi blockade on Yemeni ports becomes ridiculous and done at the expense of the population. The U.N itself can't distribute foods at it would.

Hmm but why USA supplying weapons to SA is okay and Iran supplying to Yemen bad? Those rebels are very similar to the ones in Libya which USA supported ?

Except that we are not talking about weapons here but humanitarian aid. There is no evidence that it's something other than that.

Edited May 13, 2015 by samus

[Space Commander Travis]

Because the US has the power to defeat Iran if need be and wants to suppress their power in the region? Since when did fairness become the standard between armed rivals in the world? If it seems fit to you that Iran should be a regional Hegemon then I'd wonder about your take on hanging gays, stoning women and stirring bloody conflict in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. If you feel Iran better suited to lead the world than America or the West then I'd wonder about you in general.

So it's Iran that's stirred bloody conflict in Syria! The West had nothing to do with it at all! It never offered any assistance to the "anti-Assad rebels" that included our friends at ISIS, then. And the US has never, ever stirred bloody conflict anywhere in that region at all! It was Iran that invaded Iraq, in both 1980 and 2003, and it was Iran that overthrew Gaddafi and threw Libya into chaos!

Dear lord, we all know your hatred and paranoia of Iran, but really, it really has warped your mind.

[+and-then]

The Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) is a non-political organziation. If they want to deliver the 2,600 tons of aid relief right in the hand of the Yemeni people, than they have every right to. They also have doctors on board to treat the people in need. Does Yemen belong to Saudi Arabia or the US? Not at all.

At some point the Saudi blockade on Yemeni ports becomes ridiculous and done at the expense of the population. The U.N itself can't distribute foods at it would.

Except that we are not talking about weapons here but humanitarian aid. There is no evidence that it's something other than that.

The ship is said to also have media aboard - it sounds very much like the Turkish attempt at blockade running. It will be interesting to see what the Saudis do. As for Yemen being sovereign, that seems to be in question at the moment. samus I think you know full well that this is just another gambit in the sectarian war and S.A. probably has drawn a line for Iran - Yemen is not going to be their (Iran's) puppet. Iran wants a PR victory I suspect. It certainly worked well for Erdog against Israel but hey, nobody likes Israel - this act isn't going to have the same world wide impact because people don't TRUST Iran. Save only their stooges and the other Shia in the war.

[Occult1]

It will be interesting to see what the Saudis do. As for Yemen being sovereign, that seems to be in question at the moment. samus I think you know full well that this is just another gambit in the sectarian war and S.A. probably has drawn a line for Iran - Yemen is not going to be their (Iran's) puppet. Iran wants a PR victory I suspect. It certainly worked well for Erdog against Israel but hey, nobody likes Israel - this act isn't going to have the same world wide impact because people don't TRUST Iran. Save only their stooges and the other Shia in the war.

Since the ship will arrive on port within the 5 days-window of ceasefire, I don't expect Saudi Arabia to do anything, such as entering into a direct confrontation with the Iranian Navy (escorting the IRSC cargo) that might futher complicate their already precarious military intervention in this country. Iran seems determined to get through the blockade in support of the Yemeni people in their plight, and as long as the IRSC cargo stick to it's humanitarian mission of delivering aid relief and medical assistance to the population, the US will most likely not intervene. Why would they?

Edited May 13, 2015 by samus

[Space Commander Travis]

It certainly worked well for Erdog against Israel but hey, nobody likes Israel - this act isn't going to have the same world wide impact because people don't TRUST Iran. Save only their stooges and the other Shia in the war.

You don't, but not everyone shares your or Israel's obsessions.

[+and-then]

Since the ship will arrive on port within the 5 days-window of ceasefire, I don't expect Saudi Arabia to do anything, such as entering into a direct confrontation with the Iranian Navy (escorting the IRSC cargo) that might futher complicate their already precarious military intervention in this country. Iran seems determined to get through the blockade in support of the Yemeni people in their plight, and as long as the IRSC cargo stick to it's humanitarian mission of delivering aid relief and medical assistance to the population, the US will most likely not intervene. Why would they?

Running a naval blockade is as much an act of war as the blockade itself. The Iranians are going to be stopped in their expansionist plans and if they start a shooting war here with S.A. then I think they will be hurt much worse than they imagine. The UN is handling the aid and Iran breaking the blockade will not be allowed by S.A, I imagine. They are probably DONE listening to Oby.

[Occult1]

Running a naval blockade is as much an act of war as the blockade itself. The Iranians are going to be stopped in their expansionist plans and if they start a shooting war here with S.A. then I think they will be hurt much worse than they imagine. The UN is handling the aid and Iran breaking the blockade will not be allowed by S.A, I imagine. They are probably DONE listening to Oby.

Iran doesn't recognize the blockade, or Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Yemen as legal. Indeed, the U.N has declared that Saudis strikes in Yemen are in breach of International law.

U.N: Strikes On Yemen's Saada Breach Of International Law:

''Air strikes by a coalition of Arab nations on Saada city in Yemen are in breach of international law, despite calls for civilians to leave the area, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen said.

"The indiscriminate bombing of populated areas, with or without prior warning, is in contravention of international humanitarian law," Johannes van der Klaauw said in a statement on Saturday.''

Source: http://www.aljazeera...0001320162.html

Top Yemen Scholars In The West Condemn Saudi Arabia's War:

''A group of 18 Yemen scholars and experts based in the United States and Britain published an open letter decrying the near month-long Saudi bombing campaign in the country. The letter, whose signatories include academics at Harvard, Oxford and Columbia universities, argued the Saudi-led war "is illegal under international law" and urged American and British officials to push for a U.N. Security Council resolution "demanding an immediate, unconditional ceasefire."

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/04/18/top-yemen-scholars-in-the-west-condemn-saudi-arabias-war/

Edited May 13, 2015 by samus

[+and-then]

Iran doesn't recognize the blockade, or Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Yemen as legal. Indeed, the U.N has declared that Saudis strikes in Yemen are in breach of International law.

U.N: Strikes On Yemen's Saada Breach Of International Law:

''Air strikes by a coalition of Arab nations on Saada city in Yemen are in breach of international law, despite calls for civilians to leave the area, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen said.

"The indiscriminate bombing of populated areas, with or without prior warning, is in contravention of international humanitarian law," Johannes van der Klaauw said in a statement on Saturday.''

Source: http://www.aljazeera...0001320162.html

Top Yemen Scholars In The West Condemn Saudi Arabia's War:

''A group of 18 Yemen scholars and experts based in the United States and Britain published an open letter decrying the near month-long Saudi bombing campaign in the country. The letter, whose signatories include academics at Harvard, Oxford and Columbia universities, argued the Saudi-led war "is illegal under international law" and urged American and British officials to push for a U.N. Security Council resolution "demanding an immediate, unconditional ceasefire."

Source: http://www.washingto...di-arabias-war/

Lovely. I think what we are seeing is a spring back to the realities of the application of raw power minus the whole diplomatic fig leaves in the way. Bottom line is that Iran is pushing for a foothold in a nation that borders S.A. and S.A. has decided to fight them to prevent it. Sunni V Shia. Iran is doubling down by threatening regional war if their humanitarian ship is boarded or impeded in any way. I assume that you feel Iran would be justified to start launching missiles or sending troops if their ship is redirected to Djibouti? To actually start a regional war for such a small thing? If so, samus then I have to say that the label warmonger would not be out of the question.

[acidhead]

Why would Iran send aid directly to the side they support? Weird huh?

[Space Commander Travis]

Running a naval blockade is as much an act of war as the blockade itself. The Iranians are going to be stopped in their expansionist plans and if they start a shooting war here with S.A. then I think they will be hurt much worse than they imagine. The UN is handling the aid and Iran breaking the blockade will not be allowed by S.A, I imagine. They are probably DONE listening to Oby.

yes, look at the chaos and misery Iran's expansism has caused in the world. They invaded Iraq, and caused the conditions that led to the rise of ISIS. Then it provoked the civil war in Syria. Then it provoked chaos in Libya after Gadaffi was humanitarianly overthrown. Then it herded the Israelis into ghettos where it ruthlessly suppressed any hint of resistance.

Welcome to the bizarre world of and then.

[Space Commander Travis]

Lovely. I think what we are seeing is a spring back to the realities of the application of raw power minus the whole diplomatic fig leaves in the way. Bottom line is that Iran is pushing for a foothold in a nation that borders S.A. and S.A. has decided to fight them to prevent it. Sunni V Shia. Iran is doubling down by threatening regional war if their humanitarian ship is boarded or impeded in any way. I assume that you feel Iran would be justified to start launching missiles or sending troops if their ship is redirected to Djibouti? To actually start a regional war for such a small thing? If so, samus then I have to say that the label warmonger would not be out of the question.

Quite true, Uncle Sam would never even imagine doing such a thing. Provoking a regional war in pursuit of its strategic interests (or its interests as the ruling clique sees it)? Exploiting or provoking instability in countries where it think is it may be able to exploit things to its advantage? Why, any country as deranged and insane as that deserves to be wiped off the face of the map.

[RoofGardener]

Running a naval blockade is as much an act of war as the blockade itself. The Iranians are going to be stopped in their expansionist plans and if they start a shooting war here with S.A. then I think they will be hurt much worse than they imagine. The UN is handling the aid and Iran breaking the blockade will not be allowed by S.A, I imagine. They are probably DONE listening to Oby.

Hmmm..... I'd forgotten about that, And Then. Thanks for the reminder.

According to this wiki article, the blockade is even authorised by the Yemeni government (whats left of it, in exile).

If the Iranian's DO use this as Casus Belli, then they could do a LOT of damage to Saudi with its medium and long-range missiles, quite apart from its speedboat flottilla's.

Going back to the conflict; it seems that the Houthi have very few friends in the region. The list of countries involved in the air strikes includes Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Even chaos-ridden little Somalia has chipped in by making its airspace, territorial waters and military bases available for the coalition to use.^[8] In addition, the United States is providing logistical assistance and search/rescue. (this according to http://en.wikipedia....2015â€"present)

I was mildly amused by the UNHCR's intervention. So much so that I made my own version up.

U.N: Strikes On Yemen's Saada Breach Of International Law:

''Air strikes by a coalition of Arab nations on Saada city in Yemen are in breach of international law, despite calls for civilians to leave the area" , the UN co-ordinator for Yemen said.

"The indiscriminate bombing of populated areas, with or without prior warning, is in contravention of international humanitarian law,"

Johannes van der Klaauw said in a statement on Saturday. "The security council must act immediately to stop this latest Israeli atrocity against innocent, lovely Palestinians. Oooooooh... the poor poor Pppppppppalestinians. Umm... I mean... Y...Y...Yem...Yemen....Yem.... YEHUDIM ..."

The co-ordinator then rushed off the stage in an un-coordinated state of some confusion !

Anyway, back in Yemen.

If the Iranian navy DOES engage the SA's, and starts to get the upper hand, will Obama order the US navy to intervene and shoot ?

[+and-then]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/iranian-boats-fire-shots/1847864.html

I think the hawks in Iran are going to blow this nuke deal and I think it would be a wonderful irony