Russia giving up on Assad?

[Occult1]

I've seen this news reported on quite a few websites (mostly Israelis at first) but then in a more 'mainstream' news outlet like International Business Times. It is said that Russia is pulling hundreds of advisers out of Syria, apparently scaling back support to Damascus.

''Members of the Syrian opposition said Sunday as many as 100 Russian advisers have left the country, sending a worrying signal to President Bashar Assad: One of his top financial and military backers in the 4-year-old civil war may be backing out, leaving the teetering Syrian Army to fight almost entirely on its own. Regime forces are facing the Islamic State group and the increasingly powerful umbrella group known as Jaysh al-Fatah, which scored a major victory last week when it took over the northern province of Idlib, routing Assad’s soldiers.

The Russians left Syria -- on an airplane that took off from the regime-held city of Latakia in the southwestern part of the country -- on orders from their government, Saudi-backed newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported Sunday, citing sources with the Syrian opposition. That happened, the sources said, as Russia started meetings with gulf countries, seeking to boost economic ties to offset the impact of the sanctions the U.S. and European Union imposed on Russia for its intervention in the war in Ukraine.''

Source: http://www.ibtimes.c...ia-iran-1945631

A Saudi's newspaper, Syrian opposition, that seems like propaganda to me but still, Assad's recent setbacks cannot be denied.

What do you think? Could Russia be reconsidering his support for the Assad regime?

Edited June 1, 2015 by Phenix20

[+and-then]

I've seen this news reported on quite a few websites (mostly Israelis at first) but then in a more 'mainstream' news outlet like International Business Times. It is said that Russia is pulling hundreds of advisers out of Syria, apparently scaling back support to Damascus.

''Members of the Syrian opposition said Sunday as many as 100 Russian advisers have left the country, sending a worrying signal to President Bashar Assad: One of his top financial and military backers in the 4-year-old civil war may be backing out, leaving the teetering Syrian Army to fight almost entirely on its own. Regime forces are facing the Islamic State group and the increasingly powerful umbrella group known as Jaysh al-Fatah, which scored a major victory last week when it took over the northern province of Idlib, routing Assad’s soldiers.

The Russians left Syria -- on an airplane that took off from the regime-held city of Latakia in the southwestern part of the country -- on orders from their government, Saudi-backed newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported Sunday, citing sources with the Syrian opposition. That happened, the sources said, as Russia started meetings with gulf countries, seeking to boost economic ties to offset the impact of the sanctions the U.S. and European Union imposed on Russia for its intervention in the war in Ukraine.''

Source: http://www.ibtimes.c...ia-iran-1945631

A Saudi's newspaper, Syrian opposition, that seems like propaganda to me but still, Assad's recent setbacks cannot be denied.

What do you think? Could Russia be reconsidering his support for the Assad regime?

If they are then Assad better hope Iran will pick up the slack. ISIS in control of Damascus could be a really bad outcome - especially if they decide to attack Israel. I think it more likely that Iran will double down and send in IRGC units to stop the fall of Assad.

[Gromdor]

"That happened, the sources said, as Russia started meetings with gulf countries, seeking to boost economic ties to offset the impact of the sanctions the U.S. and European Union imposed on Russia for its intervention in the war in Ukraine.''

Sounds like the were bought off to me.

[RoofGardener]

If they are then Assad better hope Iran will pick up the slack. ISIS in control of Damascus could be a really bad outcome - especially if they decide to attack Israel. I think it more likely that Iran will double down and send in IRGC units to stop the fall of Assad.

Hmmm.... I dunno, And Then.

The IRGC are intended as the guardians of the Islamic Revolution, and of the Leadership. I'm not sure that the Iranian Government would sanction their use "abroad" ?

[+and-then]

Hmmm.... I dunno, And Then.

The IRGC are intended as the guardians of the Islamic Revolution, and of the Leadership. I'm not sure that the Iranian Government would sanction their use "abroad" ?

Yes, they are a Praetorian but I can imagine the supreme pizza over there not wanting to fail after all the treasure that's been invested in Assad. I'm not sure of the size of the IRGC but if this story is true then Assad's days might well be numbered. That would be a huge setback for Iran. Maybe his highness could spare a few?

[Occult1]

I honestly think these 'reports' are greatly exagerreted, and for obvious propagandist purpose. They may even be blatant lies for all we know. The sources are doubtful at best, (a Saudi newspaper and a 'member of the Syrian opposition'). True, the Syrian regime has suffered some setbacks lately but so has the Iraqi Army even with US support. Except that in Syria, it seems even more complicated since the jihadists groups regularly collaborate together to take on the Syrian Army. They know that if Assad falls, they get to share the meat.

The IRGC are intended as the guardians of the Islamic Revolution, and of the Leadership. I'm not sure that the Iranian Government would sanction their use "abroad" ?

The IRGC serve as advisers to the Syrian Army but not as 'cannon fodder'. Iran sent the Hezbollah which proved to be a precious ally to Assad - even actually leading Syrian troops in battles - and Iran is now on the lookout for more Shi'a merceneries in the M.E. Their network of proxies seems to be quite extensive, so they don't even need to send their own soldiers.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Phenix20

[stevewinn]

If Russia was planning on giving up on Assad any time soon they wouldn't be continuing, along with China in blocking proposed sanctions at the United Nations.

[Harry_Dresden]

If Russia was planning on giving up on Assad any time soon they wouldn't be continuing, along with China in blocking proposed sanctions at the United Nations.

Well nothing is stopping Russia from making a deal with the Gulf Sunni nations in exchange for limiting its support in Syria to just diplomatic. Russia gets Saudi help in pushing oil/gas prices up and weapons deals in exchange for scaling back military help. Besides, Iran will not be leaving and in the absence of a viable alternative to the Assad's, the U.S. will not be pushing for an Islamic State caliphate.

The quagmire continues regardless of Russian support. Russia loses nothing...

Edited June 6, 2015 by Harry_Dresden