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Islamic State in the Levant Advances

middle east; islamic militanc

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#271    RavenHawk

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 02:39 PM

View Postand then, on 03 July 2014 - 06:09 AM, said:

coming to the aid of a state that has no oil.
That's an interesting perspective.  I still think that Saudi is backing ISIS.  I just don't know if it is the Sauds or the Wahhabists that are doing it?  But given that fact that Saudi Arabia like all the Other oil producers in the ME, are running out of sweet crude.  They are going to have to develop cracking and somebody probably knows that rich deposits of oil shale is under Jordan.  ISIS is just meant as a means to chase Jordan into the arms of the Saudis??  This is one of the oldest reason to land grab.

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#272    Yamato

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 12:26 AM

View PostFrank Merton, on 03 July 2014 - 04:13 AM, said:

It doesn't seem to me to be a Muslim/Jew narrative but purely a Muslim narrative and their hostility to anyone with different beliefs, including murdering them if they can get away with it, including other Muslims.
Including whoever is over there that's killing them.   Vietnam isn't over there and I don't see the hostility towards Vietnam sorry.

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#273    Harry_Dresden

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 12:49 AM

View Postand then, on 03 July 2014 - 06:09 AM, said:

Possibly, I guess, but I can't really see Europe coming to the aid of a state that has no oil.  Obama is grasping at any bit of cover for his political legacy and desperately wants to avoid any new entanglements.  But the reason I mention Israel is that Hussein has already put out a request for any help available from the US and Israel if his country is attacked by ISIS.

Normally the West wouldn't be bothered with a dirt poor Middle Eastern nation but Jordan is an Israeli buffer state and moderate, so not just in Americas interest but also the Saudis to look the other way so the Israelis can militarily prop up. War and politics make for strange bed fellows.


#274    Harry_Dresden

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 12:52 AM

View PostRavenHawk, on 03 July 2014 - 02:39 PM, said:


That's an interesting perspective.  I still think that Saudi is backing ISIS.  I just don't know if it is the Sauds or the Wahhabists that are doing it?  But given that fact that Saudi Arabia like all the Other oil producers in the ME, are running out of sweet crude.  They are going to have to develop cracking and somebody probably knows that rich deposits of oil shale is under Jordan.  ISIS is just meant as a means to chase Jordan into the arms of the Saudis??  This is one of the oldest reason to land grab.

The ISIS waters are so muddied that it's hard to say what's going on. But to assume that they are operating without a powerful benefactor is plain madness.


#275    RoofGardener

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 07:11 AM

Again, I don't think Jordan needs help to combat ISIS. If it is putting out diplomatic feelers for assistance, then that is probably just a precaution.

ISIS has only had success (so far) when they operate in a mixture of (1) A Sunni majority region, and (2) against a weak, unpopular central government, and (3) against a demoralised, disorganised security service with limited loyalty to the regime.

Jordan has a well-paid, professional armed services, with good training, good equipment, high morale, and solid loyalty. They even have a specialised anti-insurrection Special Forces section, created in the aftermath of the PLO revolution attempt. They have a reasonably well integrated army/air-force capable of combined operations. They have a decent intelligence service. They have fairly modern battlefield communications systems, and are highly mobile with a mixture of transport aircraft, helicopters, and a wide range of desert-capable ground equipment. (including over 1000 armoured personnel carriers. Heck, they even have air-mobile field hospitals.

ISIS has never encountered hostile tanks, or even mechanised infantry. They have never encountered hostile professional artillery. They have never encountered minefields, or ground-attack helicopters. They have never encountered air-mobile troops, which can circle around them and land behind them, guided by air-reconnaisance. They have never encountered troops capable of integrated manoeuvre at Brigade - or even divisional - level. They have never encountered professional, motivated infantry with interlocking heavy-machine-gun fire, forward air controllers, forward artillary controllers, snipers, and all the helfire capabilities of a modern integrated armed services.

and they have never operated against a hostile civilian population.

ISIS would be utterly massacred if they attacked.

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#276    Frank Merton

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 07:19 AM

Jordan is a well-governed autocracy; just the sort that the Middle East needs.  Egypt and Syria had similar regimes, although of course they were not performing well economically so change was needed (the bureaucracies were ingrained and would not let light in).

The Saudi's do have an interesting dilemma; support their religious brothers who would love to murder the entire royal family or support an Iraq that will line up with Iran.  I think how they go will depend on the details of what happens from here out.


#277    RoofGardener

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 01:01 PM

ACtually, there is ONE fly in the Jordanian Ointment that I had overlooked.... the Palestinians.

Apparently they constitute over half of the population. They do NOT hold the Hashemite Bedouins (the ruling ethnic group) in high regard... indeed some see them as invaders, who stole "Palestinian" land.

Yup.. "The Moan" is alive and well, east of the Jordan River.

Now, if ISIS where to try and tap into that resentment, and trigger a Palestinian revolt, then it could cause problems. Jordan can hardly evict 4,000,000 palestinians. I mean.. where would they GO ? In addition, Palestinians do most of the actual WORK in Jordan. (as well as most of the moaning).

On the other hand, the Jordanians have experience of revolting palestinians; they put down the PLO revolt in 1970, and that was before they had their shiny new special forces anti-insurrection brigade.

Not sure where that leave us.

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#278    Frank Merton

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Posted 04 July 2014 - 01:15 PM

I don't know that the Palestinians in Jordan are that unhappy with the situation there.  Time passes and lives improve and people settle in and get mixed and stop feeling sorry for themselves and start doing something constructive.  At least I would hope.  The Palestinians elsewhere are getting nowhere and they should one day begin to realize this.







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