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Japan,US losing patience with Chinese


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#1    and then

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 12:06 PM

http://www.stratfor....1a7cc615cb62e88

In depth piece on the Chinese and their actions against Japan and the US.

  We've cast the world, we've set the stage,
  for what could be, the darkest age...

#2    Coffey

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 12:21 PM

I wonder what the US would do thoug, if China goes on a full on warpath.


If the US backs Japan they lose so much money form China.

If the US back China they break their treaty/contract with Japan and Japan can start pumping out military hardware at an insane rate, they could be battle ready in months.

Hard choise for the US. Obviously if it goes that far. I doubt it would.

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#3    Frank Merton

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 12:24 PM

One thing that the Chinese should have learned from the Korean War is that the Japanese archipelago can serve as a huge aircraft carrier for the US Navy if the Japanese are inclined to allow it, complete with no need for support vessels.


#4    Sir Wearer of Hats

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 12:26 PM

China's just sabre rattling.
They want to e taken seriously as a global player, add to that they culturally hate the Japanese (think India and Pakistan ithout the ability to play nicely  in cricket)


#5    Valdemar the Great

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 12:35 PM

View PostCoffey, on 26 February 2013 - 12:21 PM, said:

I wonder what the US would do thoug, if China goes on a full on warpath.


If the US backs Japan they lose so much money form China.

If the US back China they break their treaty/contract with Japan and Japan can start pumping out military hardware at an insane rate, they could be battle ready in months.

Hard choise for the US. Obviously if it goes that far. I doubt it would.
if the US backs Japan? The US might repudiate one of the most important allies they've had since 1945 if the Chinese try to extort them?

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#6    Frank Merton

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 12:52 PM

One thing to keep in mind is that the government in China, while a one-party state and secretive as all get-out, is not a tyranny.  The officials are selected by established procedures for fixed terms, and there is no personality cult going on (at least hardly any).  The Party is nowadays composed of far more diverse individuals than the revolutionary types of the past -- better educated, more global oriented, more willing to try things to see if they work.  This is an ongoing evolution that is fragile and could reverse at any time, but probably won't.

I'm not saying I see China evolving into a multi-party democracy.  That would probably require major and undesirable turmoil, and would not necessarily improve China's behavior, nor is it, from a philosophical perspective, necessarily the best form of government for a country like China.

Therefore, as with all large nations, we can expect it to step out of bounds sometimes, but overall the chances of harmony between it and the rest of the world seem great.


#7    Valdemar the Great

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 01:23 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 26 February 2013 - 12:52 PM, said:


I'm not saying I see China evolving into a multi-party democracy.  That would probably require major and undesirable turmoil, and would not necessarily improve China's behavior, nor is it, from a philosophical perspective, necessarily the best form of government for a country like China.
And doesn't necessarily improve the behaviour of Western "Democracies", either.

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#8    DarkHunter

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 07:46 PM

Nothing will come of this, despite China's growing economy and military they are no where near ready to fight the US directly.  

If a war would occur it would be over within 2 months, China simply lacks the navy and air force to protect themselves from the US.  I doubt the US would even bother with a ground invasion, all the US would have to do is attack China's food production and starve them out of the war which wouldn't take long.  We even developed weaponized varies forms of blight to be user against the USSR and China during the cold war to attack their food supplies and starve them out of a war if it would of occurred.  

As for losing money, this could potentially solve most if not all of the US debt problems, if we would go to war with China and win does anyone here honestly think we would pay them back on the debt we owe them.  There would be immediate problems from losing the imports from China but because we would probably shift to a war time economy and have rationing anyway at the start the effect would more then likely be minimal and would for the most part be unnoticed by the average citizen.  Once everything settled back down you would have most if not all of the American debt removed and a Chinese government put into place that more then likely would be extremely friendly to US interest.


#9    AsteroidX

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 08:41 PM

China is sabre rattling yes. But they do have a longer term goal and the biggest piece of it happened when our Autz friends sold off 90% of there natural resource companies to the Chinese. New Zealand is next.


#10    ExpandMyMind

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 09:01 PM

View PostDarkHunter, on 26 February 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

Nothing will come of this, despite China's growing economy and military they are no where near ready to fight the US directly.  

If a war would occur it would be over within 2 months, China simply lacks the navy and air force to protect themselves from the US.  I doubt the US would even bother with a ground invasion, all the US would have to do is attack China's food production and starve them out of the war which wouldn't take long.  We even developed weaponized varies forms of blight to be user against the USSR and China during the cold war to attack their food supplies and starve them out of a war if it would of occurred.  

As for losing money, this could potentially solve most if not all of the US debt problems, if we would go to war with China and win does anyone here honestly think we would pay them back on the debt we owe them.  There would be immediate problems from losing the imports from China but because we would probably shift to a war time economy and have rationing anyway at the start the effect would more then likely be minimal and would for the most part be unnoticed by the average citizen.  Once everything settled back down you would have most if not all of the American debt removed and a Chinese government put into place that more then likely would be extremely friendly to US interest.

The article is primarily about Japanese and Chinese tensions, not about the U.S. and China.

But with regards to your analysis: China does have nukes, we need to remember. We haven't seen two countries with nuclear weapons in open, direct conflict, so it is impossible to say definitively whether or not the stronger side on paper would actually win such a war (though it does still look likely that the U.S. would prevail).


#11    Coffey

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 09:21 PM

View PostDarkHunter, on 26 February 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

Nothing will come of this, despite China's growing economy and military they are no where near ready to fight the US directly.  

If a war would occur it would be over within 2 months, China simply lacks the navy and air force to protect themselves from the US.  I doubt the US would even bother with a ground invasion, all the US would have to do is attack China's food production and starve them out of the war which wouldn't take long.  We even developed weaponized varies forms of blight to be user against the USSR and China during the cold war to attack their food supplies and starve them out of a war if it would of occurred.  

As for losing money, this could potentially solve most if not all of the US debt problems, if we would go to war with China and win does anyone here honestly think we would pay them back on the debt we owe them.  There would be immediate problems from losing the imports from China but because we would probably shift to a war time economy and have rationing anyway at the start the effect would more then likely be minimal and would for the most part be unnoticed by the average citizen.  Once everything settled back down you would have most if not all of the American debt removed and a Chinese government put into place that more then likely would be extremely friendly to US interest.

Where do you think most things the US has comes from? lol

Edited by Coffey, 26 February 2013 - 09:21 PM.

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#12    Valdemar the Great

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 09:26 PM

Considering that China could immobilise the U.S. Military simply by calling in what the U.S. owes them, so there' wouldn't be enough in the bank to provide a tank of gas for a Humvee, I rather doubt that they'd be foolish enough to bite the hand that owes them so much by starting anything.

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#13    ExpandMyMind

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 09:29 PM

View PostLord Vetinari, on 26 February 2013 - 09:26 PM, said:

Considering that China could immobilise the U.S. Military simply by calling in what the U.S. owes them, so there' wouldn't be enough in the bank to provide a tank of gas for a Humvee, I rather doubt that they'd be foolish enough to bite the hand that owes them so much by starting anything.

Which is probably the same reason Saudi Arabia is untouchable.


#14    Coffey

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 09:36 PM

View PostExpandMyMind, on 26 February 2013 - 09:29 PM, said:

Which is probably the same reason Saudi Arabia is untouchable.

They made a deal with Saudi to give protection if they only sell their oil for the dollar. (I think that's correct)

Is there any reason they would want war with Saudi Arabia?

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#15    ExpandMyMind

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 10:06 PM

View PostCoffey, on 26 February 2013 - 09:36 PM, said:

They made a deal with Saudi to give protection if they only sell their oil for the dollar. (I think that's correct)

Is there any reason they would want war with Saudi Arabia?

Yeah, that seems to be a deciding factor in the survival of oil rich countries. If you don't deal in U.S. $ then you're screwed.

I wasn't simply referring to war by using the term 'untouchable', by the way. Saudi Arabia has one of the worst human rights records in the World, and the U.S. puts no pressure on them to change (and even blocks it in some respects). SA have a free reign to do whatever they want, at least within their own borders.





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