Apologies for my delay in responding but I have been preoccupied with other matters. I am trying to think of ways to respond so we are not going around in circles, or so that we can just understand each others position and agree we have come to different conclusions.
Q24, on 23 November 2011 - 03:06 AM, said:
The reality that materialised after 9/11 was entirely predictable, both the targets and mood of the public.
Do you not see the groundwork was in place beforehand?
Osama bin Laden, the alleged mastermind, had been banished from Saudi Arabia (his passport revoked) in 1994, had been provided sanctuary in Afghanistan from 1996, shared a close relationship with Mullah Omar, Al Qaeda were seen as synonymous with the Taliban, the hijackers were known to be interlinked with that individual, group and country even before the event.
Due to these facts it was ensured/known for certain that Afghanistan could be targeted. It would not have made the slightest sense to go into Saudi Arabia when aware of the above.
Furthermore there was an air of shock and fear after 9/11 along with feeling there had to be an instant and strong response, of course there would be. No one would question when the administration took charge of the situation and turned their focus on Afghanistan (accompanied with the above facts). Even usually restrained/anti-war Congressmen like Ron Paul voted in favour of military action to eliminate bin Laden so severe was the threat.
You seriously think the public were going to rail against this, march in the streets, “No war against Afghanistan! Save bin Laden! Down with Saudi Arabia!” and that this would have affected the administration’s stance? Sorry - it’s ludicrous.
Your perception of the situation before 9/11 is off the mark and the reality, the facts I have set out and ease in which the Afghanistan war was pushed through, shows this. That most of the hijackers were Saudi was neither here nor there, a point that was fully predictable prior to the event as described.
Firstly, my issue with the Saudis being used is a more minor concern than a major concern (with respect to the war in Afghanistan) in that the plan as conceived allowed a possible risk that in the aftermath and trauma of 911 the public mood would be directed not only at the Afghans, Taliban and Al Qaeda but also possibly at one of the allies in the region. Given the almost unprecedented shock and trauma in the public it would be hard to be certain where exactly the desire for revenge from the public would lead. It may be that the risk was considered, evaluated and believed to be easily managable as you assert. To be honest if the only flaw I saw in the plan was possible unintended ramifications for Saudi Arabia I wouldn't have such a problem getting on board.
I don't know why you are asking me if I seriously think the public were going to rail against this, march in the streets No war against Afghanistan! Save bin Laden. I have never said Al Qaeda wouldn't be also right in the firing line, by design of the conspirators (accepting for the argument there was an inside conspiracy).
Q24, on 23 November 2011 - 03:06 AM, said:
Yes Iraq was absolutely in the firing line from the inception.
You know, you give the public far too much credit. The fact is, most don’t think, they follow, especially in issues billed as patriotism in the aftermath of a traumatic national event. When the Bush administration repeatedly connected Iraq to the ‘War on Terror’ along with WMDs, the events of 9/11 were barely a year past. People were fearful with the event still fresh in mind. It was not possible for most to be blasé at the connection that was made; the implication that removing Saddam Hussein made safe from another 9/11. Of course it was a nailed on certainty that the inescapable backdrop of 9/11 and heavily propagandised connection to Iraq would garner considerable support for the war. I really have no idea why you think this wouldn’t be the case.
And again, the reality that the war did go ahead, supported by a majority of the public (a majority who believed a 9/11 connection), shows that your perception there could have been a problem is misplaced.
What can I say? I can see how 9/11 would without doubt garner support for the wars. I’m sure they could see without doubt how 9/11 would garner support for the wars. You apparently don’t see how 9/11 would garner support for the wars (on the basis the hijackers were Saudi nationals of all things). The resultant reality shows who was correct.
In all, it is necessary to consider both the clear background that was in place before 9/11 and obvious psychological factors that would come of the attack… all known and easily predictable from inception of the operation.
Firstly, no I don't give the public a lot of credit. This is why I continue to maintain that a plan this elaborate was unnecessary, if the desired outcome was to increase war spending in general and war in the middle east in specifics. If this was the actual objective then there are much easier ways to do this. Sustained propaganda against Hussein and Bin Laden and Al Qaeda would have reached the same outcome with zero risk. In fact given the individuals and organisations we are talking about the propoganda wouldn't be a particularly hard sell. Your argument against this is that yes but that wouldn't have created the definitive transformative event as required by the document. I say the mere fact that someone floated the idea of needing a pearl harbour or transforming event is not evidence it was ever acted upon, or is related to this event. Note, I don't say its completely irrelevant, I understand how it opens up speculation that it may have been considered, thats fine.
As to the inevitability the public majority would believe a 9/11 connection with Iraq. Let me ask you this question, do you think the case made for war on Iraq was a compelling one? Do you think it had the hallmarks of a well thought out plan with all the pieces already in place, or a case which was being made effectively on the run? For example do you believe that when the plan was being formulated to engage the terrorists, hijack the planes, plant bombs in the buildings, cover the tracks etc that they also came up at that stage with the hidden weapons of mass destruction angle? Maybe they did, maybe they believed that it wouldn't matter, to me though the planning and precision which would have been necessary to pull off the 911 conspiracy was not evident in the case for war on Iraq.
Q24, on 23 November 2011 - 03:06 AM, said:
The point it keeps coming back to and which really appears to be sticking overall, is that you perceive the risk(s) were just too high. Yet, you still have not explained in any detail what you think the specific risk(s) were, despite me having asked numerous times.
If nothing else, it’d be useful if you could answer this, being the crux of your argument.
I believed that I had but I will try and answer this in another way because I am obviously not communicating this properly. When you say I have not identified what the risks are I presume you mean the risks in the plan not the risk to the perpetrators if discovered. Just out of interest if there was an inside conspiracy and it is proved what do you believe would happen to those involved? I ask to see if we agree at least on the quantum of what was at stake.
By any measure what you are asking people to be involved in is an abhorrent act. It is an act which any reasonable person would be appalled at. Sure there will be some indiviuals who will be ok with it because they will see the end as justifying the means. The more people involved though the greater the risk someone will blow the lid on the whole thing. On the theory as you see it how many people do you see as being involved (obviously I'm just asking for an estimate), and how many organisations?
Lets say we are part of this inside conspiracy. We are in at the planning stage. We all agree that American military spending is flagging to dangerously low levels. We need to act. We agree that we need a military threat to rally against and an actual war to increase spending. The following motions are tabled.
Motion 1:
Sustained propoganda against individuals already hated by the Americn public, to manufacture a threat to American security and plant ubiquitous terorists in to the mind of the public as the new communists.
Pros: Public, we all agree, are mostly easily led, and will not be hard to manipulte to this end, given the targetted individuals involved.
Risk if discovered: negligible. We were patriots and they are in actuality enemies of America
Result if successful: War declared, military spending increased
Motion 2:
1.Arrange and deal with foreign nationals to hijack a number of planes( I'm not sure if your position is that they are actual terrorists or foreign assets)
2.At some point swich those planes midflight ( I'm not sure if you subscribe to this part of the theory)
3.Fly each of those planes into four specific iconic targets
4. Earlier plant explosives in World Trade Centre buildings
5. Blow up those buildings. Explosive traces will not be discovered as people will believe all damage is from planes.
6. Later blow up building 7, some time after the initial plane attack on the two towers
7. In aftermath make link to Al Qaeda and Bin Laden
8. In aftermath tie in Iraq as rogue state. Rely on Iraq harbouring weapons of mass destruction. Compile evidence for this later.
Pros: Will be cataclysmic event which will increase domestic appetite for war.
Cons: If discovered cataclysmic for Republican party, for ourselves and our families
Risks in plan:
a. At some stage throughout some one in chain of events will find this unpalatable go all Watergate or Pentagon Papers on us and expose this
b. Foreign assets/terrorists may double cross us or leak
c. Assets/terrorists may be discovered whilst training
d. Assets etc may be discovered at airport
e. Assets may be over powered by passengers
f. Planes may be shot down prior to impact
g. Switching planes bring with it a whole series of potential difficulties and opportunities for detection
h. Risk of explosives in buildings being discovered prior to detonation
i. Risk someone at scene notices building exloding
j. Risk firemen and others actually at scene at time notice building 7 exploding
k. Risk that someone, given i and j, search for explosive traces, evidence etc
Result if successful: War declared, military spending increased
Q24, on 23 November 2011 - 03:06 AM, said:
I agree with your whole discussion on speculation - we both do it.
Here is what I don’t understand…
How can a conclusion be confirmed or ruled out based on speculation?
Isn’t speculation about having an open mind and considering possibilities? Yet for some it appears the opposite; speculation is deliberately used to close doors and draw absolutes.
Here is what I don’t understand…
.. when did I say a conclusion could be ruled out by speculation. I was responding to you saying that my speculation should be ruled out and closing the door on my speculation as I was relying on what I thought was necessary and required, not what the conspirators actually thought. My point was that neither of us knew and we were both speculating.I am not sure then why you are trying to turn this back on me. We are both looking at a set of facts and making assumptions we think are warranted. I have considered your points. That they do not personally convince me is not the same as me closing my mind.
Q24, on 23 November 2011 - 03:06 AM, said:
I really like the comparison you have brought up between thoughts bin Laden had in 1982 and thoughts in Washington in the years prior 9/11. I can use this to demonstrate the different approaches: -
- Thoughts of bin Laden. I accept bin Laden had these thoughts and a role in the 9/11 operation. I add, this is not proof bin Laden was mastermind of the operation. Note I do not use this speculation to come to a conclusion he was or was not responsible either way - what I’m actually saying is that the conclusion is unconfirmed. Others say, bin Laden had these thoughts and so was responsible for the operation.
- Thoughts in Washington. I do not claim the documents in question prove anything, rather they show an undeniable motive that existed through discussion of an attack and the benefits that would come of it. Others say, although an attack and the benefits were discussed, the motive was not strong enough and they would not do it.
To summarise: Based on this evidence, I say it is not confirmed either way that bin Laden or those in Washington were responsible. Based on this evidence, others say it is confirmed bin Laden was responsible and those in Washington were not.
In each case above, who has taken their speculation to the extreme limit; to absolute conclusion?
This is not what speculation is about. It is beyond speculation. It has become an unswerving faith.
I agree with all this. I say it is not confirmed either way that bin Laden or those in Washington were responsible.I think it is highly unlikely to be those in Washington for the reasons above but I have stated I am not convinced, not that it is impossible. I have no idea if bin laden was involved or not.
Q24, on 23 November 2011 - 03:06 AM, said:
The same pattern is followed throughout your grievances. You speculate Saudi hijackers were too risky to contemplate. You speculate demolition was too risky to contemplate. You speculate involving planes and WTC7 was too risky to contemplate. You use speculation in one direction, to slam the door shut… without ever considering speculation in detail which allows a false flag to exist.
And that is the very first base to reach - understanding that it could have been done. Once at that stage, then it is possible to really begin weighing up the evidence. Ok… it could have happened… now did it happen?
I see your argument as a defensive mental block. I do understand when the above stage is reached, acceptance that a false flag could have happened, then it can all get a little… unnerving… to your established world view. Unfortunately what we feel comfortable with doesn’t define the truth.
This latter part really annoys me. It doesn't unnerve me at all. It is not my government. It is not my country. I have no love for the neo cons. My whole argument has been predicated on the assumption that if a false flag operation would be contemplated, it would not have been done in this way, given the risks.
Basically there are three general approaches to issues of conspiracy.
a. the government are evil and everything they do is suspect regardless of the evidence
b. I belive in everything the government tells me and they would never do this.
c. I remain unconvinced by the argument for the official version/counter theory
That you disagree with why I would doubt the insider conspiracy I have no problem with. But trying to simply dismiss by doubts by lumping me in approach b. is lazy. I haven't addressed your posts as if you were in approach a.