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'Brighter than a full moon'

comets ison comet c/2012 s1

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63 replies to this topic

#16    Abramelin

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 05:39 PM

It's gonna be a crowded space:

View PostAbramelin, on 13 December 2012 - 06:56 AM, said:

Missed that one, lol.

And how about this one:


“2014 AZ5 is the object which currently has the highest chance of impacting Earth in March of 2013,” said Quami Lochmo of the European Space Agency’s Solar System Missions Division in the Dutch city of Noordwijk.

“We are currently also in the process of making governments around the world aware of the situation,”  Lochmo said. “

The near-Earth asteroid 2014 Az5  has an impact probability of 1 in 125 for March 17, 2013, said Donald Lochmo.

This impact probability isn’t set in stone, however.  It can be changed slightly.


http://weeklyworldne...ding-for-earth/


I should add something here:

First: this is the only source with this news;
Second: who is it? Quami Lochmo or Donald Lochmo?

.

Edited by Abramelin, 28 December 2012 - 05:49 PM.


#17    Waspie_Dwarf

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 08:12 PM

View PostDarkwind, on 27 December 2012 - 02:28 PM, said:

This is going to be something to see.

I hate to be the bringer of bad news but there are two things that need to be considered:

  • Comets are notoriously difficult to predict.

  • Newspaper headlines are notoriously sensationalist.

The "brighter than a full moon" prediction is a best case scenario. It is highly likely that, like so many comets before, this will be a damp squib. How bright it is depends on how much dust and gas evaporate from the cometary nucleus as the comets nears the sun, and we just won't know that until nearer the time.

stevewinn mentioned Hale-Bopp. That is a good example of the unpredictability of comets. Hale-Bopp brightened whilst still a long way from the sun. However it's brightening slowed considerably, leading many to think that it may not be as spectacular as first thought. Then it got to close to the sun to be observed. When it returned it had brightened considerably and was spectacular.

But there was another comet that was seen to be very bright whilst still at a great distance from the sun, Comet Kohoutek in 1973. Like Hale-Bopp this was expected to be a great comet, even being described as "the Comet of the Century". It was no such thing. Kohoutek disintegrated as it came close to the sun and was only just visible to the naked eye.

Whether Ison is a Kohoutek or a Hale-Bopp, only time will tell.

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#18    Bonecrusher

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 10:20 PM

Tbh I'm quite upset by this news.
Here's me thinking I could catch it with the naked eye.
I suppose getting that telescope is  more of a priority as time goes on.
However if you do see a comet with the naked eye you are getting some kind of message.
Go to your underground bunker in five seconds flat.
Tbh I'll just have to made do with the ISS and the Moon.
But they really do pale in comparison with a comet.

Edited by Medium Brown, 28 December 2012 - 10:20 PM.

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#19    Waspie_Dwarf

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 10:26 PM

View PostMedium Brown, on 28 December 2012 - 10:20 PM, said:

However if you do see a comet with the naked eye you are getting some kind of message.
Go to your underground bunker in five seconds flat.

Really! That's odd because I've seen at least half a dozen and I've never needed a bunker yet.


Edited by Waspie_Dwarf, 28 December 2012 - 10:28 PM.
typo.

"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

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#20    Bonecrusher

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 08:18 AM

View PostWaspie_Dwarf, on 28 December 2012 - 10:26 PM, said:



Really! That's odd because I've seen at least half a dozen and I've never needed a bunker yet.
Well having read it more carefully I think we've got a 50/50 chance.
It's going to be prominent for a fair few months and you might as well live in a bunker if you don't catch it.
I think it being brighter than the moon is a pretty fair assessment of a comet in full flight.
It's not surprising people are getting hyped up after what Shoemaker-Levy did to Jupiter.
Because I'm an optimistic sod I'm leaning more to it mimicking Hale Bopp's actions.
There will be a few dissipointed people here if it dosn't live up to expectations.
My idea of amateur astronomer hell would be it if it suddenly became overcast.
No comet's light is bright enough to penetrate a grey cloud.
It dosn't care how impressive it is in it's overall appearance.

Edited by Medium Brown, 29 December 2012 - 08:19 AM.

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#21    highdesert50

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:13 PM

I wonder if this event will spawn a host of doomsday scenarios ... as in, oh my, the Mayan's were a year off in their calculations.


#22    Coffey

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:21 PM

This is awesome. :tu:

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#23    HuntrSThompsun

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:32 PM

oh great, Russians won't give us their babies.. now they create another cult to follow.. It's the sequel to heavens gates.


#24    goodgodno

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:34 PM

Makes you wonder what else they haven't discovered yet ..

Edited by goodgodno, 29 December 2012 - 01:35 PM.


#25    pallidin

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 04:32 PM

The article says:

"Comet ISON is expected to pass as close as 700,000 miles, or 1.1 million kilometers, from the sun on Nov. 28."

Yet, some commenters on other sites have mistaken that figure for it's proximity to the earth at that time, which is not true.

Edited by pallidin, 29 December 2012 - 04:37 PM.


#26    Overdueleaf

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:21 PM

I am waiting for the crazies and doomsday preachers to come out of the woodwork on this one(remember Heavans Gate).... perhaps even planet Nibiru followers

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#27    Bonecrusher

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 08:29 PM

View PostOverdueleaf, on 29 December 2012 - 05:21 PM, said:

I am waiting for the crazies and doomsday preachers to come out of the woodwork on this one(remember Heavans Gate).... perhaps even planet Nibiru followers
It'll be a shame if they do.

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#28    Hawkin

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 12:05 AM

View Posthighdesert50, on 29 December 2012 - 01:13 PM, said:

I wonder if this event will spawn a host of doomsday scenarios ... as in, oh my, the Mayan's were a year off in their calculations.

It will spawn a bunch of millionaires from books and dvds as 12/21/12 did.

It's good to have some skepticism so you won't be gullible & naïve. But to much of it can make you arrogant & egotistical.

#29    Xanthurion2

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 02:18 AM

why don't they tell us this stuff in, oh i don't know, october 2013? i will forget all about it by then.

Edited by Xanthurion2, 30 December 2012 - 02:19 AM.


#30    Waspie_Dwarf

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 02:33 AM

View PostXanthurion2, on 30 December 2012 - 02:18 AM, said:

why don't they tell us this stuff in, oh i don't know, october 2013? i will forget all about it by then.
And your bad memory is the fault of astronomers how exactly?

They can't win, if they don't release information straight away we have one lot of people claiming it is a conspiracy.

If they do release the information straight away they have to deal with people that aren't prepared to think for themselves.

If this comet is as bright as the best case scenarios predict then you won't need to remember, you will just need to follow three basic steps.

  • Wait until it is dark.
  • Go outside.
  • Look up.



Edited by Waspie_Dwarf, 30 December 2012 - 02:38 AM.

"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

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