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How many alien civilizations are there ?


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#1    Saru

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 12:41 PM

How likely is it that we will find an advanced alien civilization within our own Milky Way galaxy ?

Phys.org said:

Looking to the Drake equation factors, it is obvious that none can be precisely determined by modern science. More than that, as we move from the left to right in the equation, estimating each factor becomes more controversial.

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#2    Decemberwriter70

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 02:13 PM

Love this.


#3    marcos anthony toledo

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:11 PM

As time goes on and we perfect our search methods we will find the number of possible alein civilizations will increase great story.


#4    constantine_337

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:30 PM

infinite possibility's given their is no end to the universe.

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#5    SurgeTechnologies

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:44 PM

Waaaaay to likely... and as we evolve our technology i bet will have something good very soon, in my lifetime for sure!

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#6    keithisco

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:52 PM

Sheer numbers of Planet forming stars in our own "Back - Yard"  intuitively leads you to agree with the SDE.

But.. there are so many other factors to consider with these RF emitting Cultures:

1.  Perhaps they do not want to be found and have shielded Coherent EM from escaping their atmosphere
2.  The atmosphere on the planet where this radiation is produced may naturally prevent its propogation
3.  They may only use "Tight Beam" technology (effectively point - to point communications)
4.  Our instruments are too limited in their sensitivity to pick up AND recognise a structured signal

I also see no reason to believe any Alien Contact would be on a mutually altruistic level. and wonder whether contact with any Western Hemisphere nation would bring any benefits at all. IMO


#7    Vidgange

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:55 PM

We might never meet intelligent life out there. As far as we know WE might be that intelligent life form. And I don't quite know if that's depressing or not...

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#8    WoIverine

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 04:40 PM

View PostVidgange, on 06 December 2012 - 03:55 PM, said:

We might never meet intelligent life out there. As far as we know WE might be that intelligent life form. And I don't quite know if that's depressing or not...

Sauron the deceiver! Cool.  :tu:


#9    CuriousGreek

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 05:07 PM

The Universe is endless, so i wouldn't be surprised, if not only 1 aliens' civilization existence is proved!


#10    StarMountainKid

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 05:41 PM

I've been thinking about this lately. I think we have to look at the circumstances of the evolution of intelligent humans here on Earth. First, we have the right environment. Secondly, we have a large moon that stabilizes the rotation of our planet. But thirdly, the evolution from primate to human was a lucky accident of the extinction of the dinosaurs and local geology and environment.

Also, what kind of life will evolve into intelligent creatures? I think it is no accident that primates evolved intelligence. They are very mobile, they have four useful appendages, they have the ability to walk upright and they have hands and fingers, and they're pretty smart to begin with.

I don't think any other type of species could evolve into intelligent creatures such as us. I don't think cows, for example, will ever become more intelligent than they already are. They don't need to. Predators have a better chance, but if you are a successful predator, you don't need to evolve, either. Only one kind of animal (monkeys) have this evolutionary opportunity, and for them it takes a very selective and exceptional environmental challenge for the opportunity to arise for them to evolve into a human-level intelligence.

Given these unique circumstances here on Earth, I don't think there are many planets in our galaxy that support intelligent life equal to we humans. I think intelligent life is very rare in the galaxy, and given the great distances between stars and the difficulty this presents for mutual communication, we may never discover another intelligent species we can communicate with.

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#11    bison

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 05:49 PM

The statistical Drake equation is a notable contribution to thinking on this issue. It still suffers from one problem in common with the classical version. It appears to assume that a civilization, once arising in a particular star system, will remain in that system, failing to expand its territory. While this may be the case in some instances, it seems unlikely that it must be so in all cases. Many species  on Earth, including ourselves, find it adaptive and beneficial to expand their territory, when and where possible. Even at speeds well below that of light, a single extraterrestrial civilization could expand throughout the galaxy in a very modest length of time, astronomically speaking. As a great many star systems are billions of years older than our own, it is not an unreasonable proposition that intelligent life has expanded into every corner of our galaxy.


#12    ReaperS_ParadoX

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 06:33 PM

I would think that if there is any intelligent life out there we arent likely to see it because space is just to vast and are science isnt up to the level where we can easily travel through it.

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#13    TheMacGuffin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 06:42 PM

If I were to guess, there are civilizations just about everywhere on planets that can sustain life or can be made to sustain life.  After all, a lot can happen in 13 to 15 billion years and to think that we really know what's be going on throughout all that history is the height of hubris.

I can never understand why people get so upset over the idea that me was many "neighbors" who have been visiting us over the years, probably over 100 different groups.  As in the nature of things, some of them are not very nice neighbors, but even the fact that they are here and have been here for a long time is so upsetting to the worldviews of certain people that they just cannot and will not accept it.

Edited by TheMacGuffin, 06 December 2012 - 06:42 PM.


#14    OverSword

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 07:57 PM

View PostTheMacGuffin, on 06 December 2012 - 06:42 PM, said:

If I were to guess, there are civilizations just about everywhere on planets that can sustain life or can be made to sustain life.  After all, a lot can happen in 13 to 15 billion years and to think that we really know what's be going on throughout all that history is the height of hubris.

I can never understand why people get so upset over the idea that me was many "neighbors" who have been visiting us over the years, probably over 100 different groups.  As in the nature of things, some of them are not very nice neighbors, but even the fact that they are here and have been here for a long time is so upsetting to the worldviews of certain people that they just cannot and will not accept it.
You're not correct MacGuffin.  I used to think just like you but after decades of contemplating, and emotional wishful thinking became logical thinking based on statistics and lack of evidence my own personal conclusion is there is probably much life throughout the universe.  There is probably an extremely (very extremely) small fraction of that life on a very small fraction of those worlds where intelligent civilization building life exists.


#15    pallidin

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:10 PM

Thousands, millions, possibly even billions of ET's in the universe, IMHO.
As far as our own galaxy, I would bet hundreds if not more.





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