41 replies to this topic

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 12 December 2012 - 07:24 PM, said:

About 6inchs in the AGW period since 1870.

http://academics.eck...8SLRSustain.pdf

Certainly not insignificant. Whats worthy of note is that the previous 4thousand years showed almost no rise.
Thermal expansion seems to account for most of the rise and this is not surprising considering that the majority of the warming so far has been sequestered in the oceans.

Br Cornelius

according to that, the sea level rose ~20mm between 1994 and 2004, so given shepherd 2010, only 1/(20/0.049) = 1/400th or 0.25% of that rise was due to sea ice melt.

Edited by Little Fish, 12 December 2012 - 07:32 PM.

[Br Cornelius]

Little Fish, on 12 December 2012 - 07:31 PM, said:

according to that, the sea level rose ~20mm between 1994 and 2004, so given shepherd 2010, only 1/(20/0.049) = 1/400th or 0.25% of that rise was due to sea ice melt.

Which is expected.

Br Cornelius

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 12 December 2012 - 07:24 PM, said:

Whats worthy of note is that the previous 4thousand years showed almost no rise.

"In the 11,400 years since the end of the last Ice Age, sea level has risen at an average of 4 feet/century, though it is now rising much more slowly because very nearly all of the land-based ice that is at low enough latitudes and altitudes to melt has long since gone."
http://wattsupwithth...ewers-steketee/

[Br Cornelius]

Little Fish, on 12 December 2012 - 07:43 PM, said:

"In the 11,400 years since the end of the last Ice Age, sea level has risen at an average of 4 feet/century, though it is now rising much more slowly because very nearly all of the land-based ice that is at low enough latitudes and altitudes to melt has long since gone."
http://wattsupwithth...ewers-steketee/

Cherry picking again. The scientific evidence clearly shows a sharp rise of sea levels after the last ice age. Misuse of trends and averages would suggest your statement to be true, but the reality is that sea levels stopped rising over 4thousand years ago - only to restart again in about 1870.

If you checked the paper I referenced you would know that.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 12 December 2012 - 07:53 PM.

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 12 December 2012 - 07:51 PM, said:

Cherry picking again. The scientific evidence clearly shows a sharp rise of sea levels after the last ice age. Misuse of trends and averages would suggest your statement to be true, but the reality is that sea levels stopped rising over 4thousand years ago - only to restart again in about 1870.

If you checked the paper I referenced you would know that.

Br Cornelius

i did check it, the graph in figure 1 shows sea level has risen ~8.5 feet over the last 4,000 years =62mm/century well within the margin of error of todays measurements, ie, no change in rate of change of sea level, looks like a continuation of recovery from the last ice age 11,000 years ago.

Edited by Little Fish, 12 December 2012 - 08:02 PM.

[Doug1o29]

Br Cornelius, on 12 December 2012 - 07:24 PM, said:

Certainly not insignificant. Whats worthy of note is that the previous 4thousand years showed almost no rise.

Did you mean NET rise?  Sea levels have been through a number of ups and downs in the last 2000 years.  This includes three periods when sea level was above current:  about 1750 BC sea levels were about 2.7 feet above modern.  Sesostris II did not run his canal all the way to the Red Sea, but was able to end it just south of Lake Timsah.  Again, about 1000 BC, sea levels rose about 3.6 feet above modern and during the Roman Period (250-400 AD) they were 5.6 feet above modern, juding by molliusk holes in the piers at Caesarea.  A sedimentologist, David Symms at UCLA has been studying this and used to occupy an office just across the treet from me.
Doug

[pallidin]

Refreeze the arctic. Get real.
That would take hundreds and hundreds of years to do.

And whose is going to pay for the 37 trillion air-conditioners to do this?  

[questionmark]

Doug1o29, on 12 December 2012 - 08:06 PM, said:

Did you mean NET rise?  Sea levels have been through a number of ups and downs in the last 2000 years.  This includes three periods when sea level was above current:  about 1750 BC sea levels were about 2.7 feet above modern.  Sesostris II did not run his canal all the way to the Red Sea, but was able to end it just south of Lake Timsah.  Again, about 1000 BC, sea levels rose about 3.6 feet above modern and during the Roman Period (250-400 AD) they were 5.6 feet above modern, juding by molliusk holes in the piers at Caesarea.  A sedimentologist, David Symms at UCLA has been studying this and used to occupy an office just across the treet from me.
Doug

Where we have to see what part actually was sea level changes and what part do to tectonic movement.

In any case, for those living on high enough ground a foot in sea level rise is irrelevant, the problem is that 60% of humans live there where the ground is not really high enough.

[questionmark]

pallidin, on 12 December 2012 - 08:17 PM, said:

Refreeze the arctic. Get real.
That would take hundreds and hundreds of years to do.

And whose is going to pay for the 37 trillion air-conditioners to do this?  

Well, tax the middle class so the rich can keep on burning fossil fuels in their corporate jets. Really simple.

[Little Fish]

sea level 2 meters higher than present level, 4,000 years ago
http://www.agu.org/p...2GL051983.shtml

Edited by Little Fish, 12 December 2012 - 08:40 PM.

[Br Cornelius]

Little Fish, on 12 December 2012 - 08:01 PM, said:

i did check it, the graph in figure 1 shows sea level has risen ~8.5 feet over the last 4,000 years =62mm/century well within the margin of error of todays measurements, ie, no change in rate of change of sea level, looks like a continuation of recovery from the last ice age 11,000 years ago.

Maybe you would like to show that since Fig 1(b )definitely has no such upward trend.

Quote

4) There is a lot of variation in the rate of sea level rise. This is a point frequently missed or ignored by all kinds of people (including some scientists) talking about sea level rise.  Take a look at the figure below (from NASA). Changes in sea level clearly vary from place to place. In some parts of the western Pacific ocean, sea level rise has been nearly 1cm per year. In others, sea level is falling. This variability is caused by several factors and nature cycles. This variability is not surprising and does not in any way challenge the fact that globally, average sea level is rising. It just means that the impacts of sea level rise, like very other aspect of global climate change, are variable. For some people they are trivial, to others they are catastrophic.

http://www.globalwar...e_Sea_Level_png


Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 12 December 2012 - 09:39 PM.

[Br Cornelius]

Little Fish, on 12 December 2012 - 08:39 PM, said:

sea level 2 meters higher than present level, 4,000 years ago
http://www.agu.org/p...2GL051983.shtml

I think you will find that that paper says something other than what you think.

Br Cornelius

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 12 December 2012 - 09:22 PM, said:

I think you will find that that paper says something other than what you think.

Br Cornelius

"a maximum highstand level of 2 m above present at about 4,000 years ago"
http://www.agu.org/p...2GL051983.shtml

so todays sea levels are 2 meters lower than the high point of 4,000 years ago, which illustrates the level of rise over the last 50-100 years is well within natural fluctuations.

Edited by Little Fish, 12 December 2012 - 10:16 PM.

[Little Fish]

Br Cornelius, on 12 December 2012 - 09:18 PM, said:

Maybe you would like to show that since Fig 1(b )definitely has no such upward trend.

fig 1b has a upwards slope from 4,000 years ago. the scale of the left is marked in 10 meter boxes. you can see it starts below the dashed line at 4,000 ybp, and ends on the dashed line at 0 ybp. estimate by eye at about a quarter of one of those 10 meter boxes = 2.5 meters = 2500mm = an average rise of 62.5mm/century over the last 4,000 years
http://academics.eck...8SLRSustain.pdf

Edited by Little Fish, 12 December 2012 - 10:19 PM.

[Br Cornelius]

Little Fish, on 12 December 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

"a maximum highstand level of 2 m above present at about 4,000 years ago"
http://www.agu.org/p...2GL051983.shtml

so todays sea levels are 2 meters lower than the high point of 4,000 years ago, which illustrates the level of rise over the last 50-100 years is well within natural fluctuations.

Rebound !!
Read on to where it says that the land ice melt finished 7K years ago.

Br Cornelius