88 replies to this topic

[and then]

http://www.hoover.or.../article/139881

Thorough examination of causes for the coming conflict over this region.  I think it's a fair piece.  Less about the west and more about the Sunni Shia divide.

[AsteroidX]

No way is there going to be a war in The Meddle east. Its just hyperbole to keep the masses entertained.

[Eldorado]

Has there ever been real peace in the Middle East?

[OverSword]

Eldorado, on 18 February 2013 - 07:49 PM, said:

Has there ever been real peace in the Middle East?

There was that one time between rome and the crusades........Oh wait, that was the rise of islam so..........No, never.

[wolfknight]

The middel east has been fighting forever. Sect against Sect. If and ownly if the many sects and tribes could put away there differences and bands together. Then a war would be possible. But  we all know that will never happen!!!

[and then]

The difference today is the global connectedness.  One region can set the whole place alight.  And a general war in the M.E. isn't a matter of if, but when, IMO.  Doesn't even matter who's to blame either.  It will happen because of the level of unrelenting hatred there and the easy availability of weapons and hands to hold them.  Mix in the oil and voila'  a great big regional blood bath.  Can anyone seriously imagine these groups coming together in peace?  The best thing to hope for is a lack of nukes being used.

[CRIPTIC CHAMELEON]

They have been killing each other for centuries and they will go on doing the same for centuries more.  

[ExpandMyMind]

Eh, the war in the Middle East started back during the Guld War. And with the sanctions and random bombings it continued right through to 2001, on to today.

Forget any sort of civil war.

[Hilander]

When religion rules a country and that country has several different religions there is going to be unhappy people that will want war.

[and then]

ExpandMyMind, on 18 February 2013 - 08:19 PM, said:

Eh, the war in the Middle East started back during the Guld War. And with the sanctions and random bombings it continued right through to 2001, on to today.

Forget any sort of civil war.

So, Ex, we have no worries where Sunni and Shia are concerned?  Really?  Their conflict started a long time before the west ever became involved.

[ExpandMyMind]

and then, on 18 February 2013 - 10:02 PM, said:

So, Ex, we have no worries where Sunni and Shia are concerned?  Really?  Their conflict started a long time before the west ever became involved.

We definitely have no worries. The Arabs, though...

Yes there may at some point in the future be another Sunni - Shia war. My point was that the region has been in a constant state of war for decades, so to suggest a 'coming' war is disingenuous. If anything, a civil war as you mention would be a sub-war. And besides, it the leaders of these countries that want religious war, not the average Arab or Mulsim. The people of Iran and Saudi largely hold no hatred for each other (in fact, read some polls: the average Saudi is in favour of Iran gaining a nuclear weapon); it is the leaders in a power struggle.

[and then]

ExpandMyMind, on 19 February 2013 - 09:53 AM, said:

We definitely have no worries. The Arabs, though...

Yes there may at some point in the future be another Sunni - Shia war. My point was that the region has been in a constant state of war for decades, so to suggest a 'coming' war is disingenuous. If anything, a civil war as you mention would be a sub-war. And besides, it the leaders of these countries that want religious war, not the average Arab or Mulsim. The people of Iran and Saudi largely hold no hatred for each other (in fact, read some polls: the average Saudi is in favour of Iran gaining a nuclear weapon); it is the leaders in a power struggle.

Can you cite that poll?  I believe you, I'd just like to see how this seeming oddity is explained.  Unless it was taken in the Shia region I can't imagine what those Saudis would be thinking.  I think the article was clear that a subtext is playing out in the struggle between the west and Islam and that the Sunni Shia divide figures heavily in this.  In fact, it sometimes appears that the conflict with the west and Israel is just used as cover or motivation for that Sunni/Shia conflict.

[ExpandMyMind]

and then, on 19 February 2013 - 10:33 AM, said:

Can you cite that poll?  I believe you, I'd just like to see how this seeming oddity is explained.  Unless it was taken in the Shia region I can't imagine what those Saudis would be thinking.  I think the article was clear that a subtext is playing out in the struggle between the west and Islam and that the Sunni Shia divide figures heavily in this.  In fact, it sometimes appears that the conflict with the west and Israel is just used as cover or motivation for that Sunni/Shia conflict.

You can read many of the past polls in detail here (Just the link for 2011): http://www.brookings...opinion-telhami

Quote

Iran suffered mixed results. More people in 2011 identify Iran as one of the two biggest threats they face than ever before (18%), and, in contrast with 2010, a plurality (35%) of those polled now believe that if Iran acquires weapons of mass destruction it would be negative for the Middle East. On the other hand, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, remains relatively popular, and most (64%) Arabs still feel that Iran has the right to its nuclear program and should not be pressured by the international community to halt it.

2010: http://www.brookings...on-poll-telhami

Quote

On Iran's potential nuclear weapons status, results show another dramatic shift in public opinion. While the results vary from country to country, the weighted average across the six countries is telling:  in 2009, only 29% of those polled said that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be "positive" for the Middle East; in 2010, 57% of those polled indicate that such an outcome would be "positive" for the Middle East.

You can research the exact countries yourself in detail (information provided in the links). I don't have time at the moment.

Sorry, just realised that Saudi isn't a part of that poll. But you can find others if you have the time. The point is that the divide amongst ordinary civilians isn't as extreme as many believe.

Edited by ExpandMyMind, 19 February 2013 - 11:18 AM.

[slaughtr]

A War in the middle east? there has always been war in the middle east and religion plays a big role,especially the jews who live on stolen land.So among these groups who have diffferent agenda's you will have disagreements and fights which lead to death and as long as the US keeps butting in everybody's business and touting democracy and forcing democracy on countries who don't want western culture there will be unrest.Personally leave them the hell alone why is america worried about how somebody else is running there country,Sadam a good example.Sadam may have mass genocided his people at some point but so did America with it's so called labeling people minorities with brutal slavery and made up Jim Crow laws. America is getting close to war on a whole new front we are about to see firsthand the collapse of the dollar. So don't be so comfy thinking that this country will always be so safe from the world America's kharma is in route. The greedy need to starve to know the struggle.

Edited by slaughtr, 19 February 2013 - 01:10 PM.

[and then]

slaughtr, on 19 February 2013 - 01:05 PM, said:

A War in the middle east? there has always been war in the middle east and religion plays a big role,especially the jews who live on stolen land.So among these groups who have diffferent agenda's you will have disagreements and fights which lead to death and as long as the US keeps butting in everybody's business and touting democracy and forcing democracy on countries who don't want western culture there will be unrest.Personally leave them the hell alone why is america worried about how somebody else is running there country,Sadam a good example.Sadam may have mass genocided his people at some point but so did America with it's so called labeling people minorities with brutal slavery and made up Jim Crow laws. America is getting close to war on a whole new front we are about to see firsthand the collapse of the dollar. So don't be so comfy thinking that this country will always be so safe from the world America's kharma is in route. The greedy need to starve to know the struggle.

So, short version is Israel is a thief and the US a busybody?  *sigh*  welcome to UM.....