Tornado swarms to occur more frequently

[questionmark]

WASHINGTON, Oct. 17 (UPI) -- A new study shows that tornadoes are changing their behavior pattern to occur in clusters or swarms, increasing the potential for mass destruction.

The study, published in Science by Harold Brooks and other NOAA researchers, showed the increasing number of tornado clusters since the '70s.

"In effect, there is a lower probability of a day having a tornado, but if a day does have a tornado, there is a much higher chance of having many tornadoes. As a result, tornadoes are 'concentrated' into a smaller number of days in more recent years. Approximately 20 percent of the annual tornadoes in the most recent decade have occurred on the three 'biggest' days of each year, in contrast to 10 percent in the earlier period. This concentration leads to the potential for short periods of time, such as months, to have extreme (both large and small) numbers of tornadoes."

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2014/10/17/Tornado-swarms-to-occur-more-frequently-in-the-US/1001413563324/#ixzz3GR6xMxyU

[danielost]

onlky one thing wrong with this story. earth hasn't warmed in the last 15 years and has actually gotten cooler. their starting to compare it to the sefventies. which fits in with my prediction 15 years ago.

[Raptor Witness]

Let's hope that for the sake of the NSA this doesn't mean there will be swarms of Edward Snowden's.

Edited October 19, 2014 by Raptor Witness

[Ogbin]

Let's hope that for the sake of the NSA this doesn't mean there will be swarms of Edward Snowden's.

Very punny.. I like it.

[Crabby Kitten]

Homes should be built sturdier and underground.

[Doug1029]

onlky one thing wrong with this story. earth hasn't warmed in the last 15 years and has actually gotten cooler. their starting to compare it to the sefventies. which fits in with my prediction 15 years ago.

During those fifteen years energy has continued to flow into the climate system. If not expressed in warmer temperatures, then it must be expressed some other way. Warmer ocean temps is one way. More-active weather systems is another. Atmospheric temps account for only 10% of the energy in the system.

According to NASA http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts dSST.txt, the annually averaged global temperature anomally for 1998 was 0.61 degrees C. above the 1951-1980 mean. 2002 tied it. In 2005 it was 0.65 degrees above the mean. In 2007 it was 0.59 above. 2009 - 0.59 degrees above. 2010 - 0.66 degrees above (the all-time high). 2014 is on-tract to set a new record as the warmest year ever, but we'll have to wait and see. Bottom line: mean annual temps have gotten warmer, not colder since 1998.

It has been several years since I last checked to see if there was a discernible change in the 30-year trend, so I ran the numbers:

Answer: No change. The 30-year trend continues up at 0.016 degrees C. per year. A straight-line model accounts for 74.3% of variation in the data. Starting at +0.160 in 1983, temperatures rise 0.016375 degrees per year. The standard error of the model is 0.089 degrees. From a statistical viewpoint, the trend in global warming has not changed since 1983. The model shows greater errors at each end and in the middle. The best-fit portions of the curve are at the quartiles. In other words: a trend is not a good fit for the data. But, trend is what people want to talk about.

Doug

Edited October 29, 2014 by Doug1029

[Midyin]

I hope they are wrong. Tornados scare the **** out of me... O_O

[danielost]

you guys need to reread the story. it says there will be fewer tornados in total. the ones that do hit will come in groups. meaning, if this is correct, fewer areas will get hit, but those that do will really get hit. but, if they are as correct as they were with global warming, wwe have nothing to worry about. seems to me this is just gloom and doom.

[danielost]

During those fifteen years energy has continued to flow into the climate system. If not expressed in warmer temperatures, then it must be expressed some other way. Warmer ocean temps is one way. More-active weather systems is another. Atmospheric temps account for only 10% of the energy in the system.

According to NASA http://data.giss.nas...GLB.Ts dSST.txt, the annually averaged global temperature anomally for 1998 was 0.61 degrees C. above the 1951-1980 mean. 2002 tied it. In 2005 it was 0.65 degrees above the mean. In 2007 it was 0.59 above. 2009 - 0.59 degrees above. 2010 - 0.66 degrees above (the all-time high). 2014 is on-tract to set a new record as the warmest year ever, but we'll have to wait and see. Bottom line: mean annual temps have gotten warmer, not colder since 1998.

It has been several years since I last checked to see if there was a discernible change in the 30-year trend, so I ran the numbers:

Answer: No change. The 30-year trend continues up at 0.016 degrees C. per year. A straight-line model accounts for 74.3% of variation in the data. Starting at +0.160 in 1983, temperatures rise 0.016375 degrees per year. The standard error of the model is 0.089 degrees. From a statistical viewpoint, the trend in global warming has not changed since 1983. The model shows greater errors at each end and in the middle. The best-fit portions of the curve are at the quartiles. In other words: a trend is not a good fit for the data. But, trend is what people want to talk about.

Doug

accoreing to your chart at bthe bottom, the mean temp went up 50 degrees Fahrenheit. i have to say that is a lie. if temps had gone up that high antarctica would not have any ice on it, and we would all be living there. it would be to hot tpo live almost any place else. besides we are still breaking high temps that were set before 1950.