I have moved this to the Space and Astronomy forum as it seems more appropriate there than in general science.

I have also voted no the Apophis colliding with the Earth.

When first discovered the chances of the this object hitting the Earth were only calculated to be 1:6,000. By May 2006, with the orbit more accurately known the chances of it hitting Earth ha been recalculated at 1:24,000. By my calculations this represents a 99.99583% certainty that it will miss.

It should also be pointed out that original calculations suggested that there was a chance of Apophis colliding with the Earth in 2029. As the orbit was refined this chance has dropped to zero. However Apophis will make a very close approach in that year.

More observations will be made of Apophis in 2013 which will refine the orbit further. I fully expect the chances of a collision to be declared zero after that.

Link to

**MSNBC Apophis story** from May 2006.