This isn't the first time this has happened; it kind of reminds me of Germany in the 1930's and the Nazi party. Now, you take a people which are basically un-educated and third world, and promise to make them into a "Great Nation" among the nations, (re: the nuclear reactor and nuclear technology) that they are somehow religiously superior to others and you get your cult following...add to this their rationale that the only reason why they have been subjugated to a lesser class of people is because they have been suppressed...Sound familiar?...didn't Hitler use this angle?
Throw into the mix the religious overtones that exist in the M.E. and that which people hold deeply in their lives, and you have the makings of an evil that the world hasn't witnessed since before WW2, and has the a distinctive characteristic or attribute of a Pax-Romano (Roman Rule) like institute, but instead this will be Muslim Rule.
The Romans like the Muslims were religious people. Pontifex Maximus was the High Priest. This position is filled with whom we call the Pope today. The Praetor was in charge of the judiciary of Rome. The office is like the Vice President position we have today. They make judgments upon the people and are the chief law officer. The Consuls (house and senate)or in Iran the (Mullahs) may overturn their verdicts if they felt the need.
What I see coming is similar - Pax-Islam...everything is in place for this...Islam is sweeping Europe and growing worldwide...but there are obstacles. Democracy and the right to choose stands in the way; I think the Middle East is a powder keg that is hung over the fire. Many believe that U.S. is about to leave Iraq or at least they should...and that somehow peace will take hold in the region when they leave. This is far from the truth; in reality, when U.S. troops go home, there will be a power struggle in the Middle East like has never been seen and in particular Iraq.
One possible scenario: Iran will sweep through Iraq with their army, with the help of the Shia in Iraq; the Saudis will resist this of course and march up to engage them in battle and another war will transpire in the Middle East again (many innocents will die)...The Saudis will have trouble because of inner turmoil (which exists now) and being betrayed by people in their own ranks who will side with the Iranian Mullahs and their brand of Islam.
During this time, Iran and Saudi Arabia will sit across the table from each other to discuss terms for peace and will lie to each other, Iran will leave with a considerable amount of concessions made to them because of their superior army, but the war will continue on anyway (blood Feud) ...this WILL bring back U.S. forces back to the region and the rest of the world will be there too because of the oil. This power struggle between Iran (Shia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni) is already going on in Iraq...pre-civil war phase...when the U.S. leaves, a full blown civil war will break out.
Which brings me to my next question…should the U.S. stay the course in Iraq and stabilize their government and security forces enough to rebuff Iran/Saudi Arabia?
Whether you believe the War in Iraq was justified or not is irrelevant now, if we do not finish the job, we will almost certainly have to return to do it, whether it is Republican or Democrat in the white House. I feel what is about to transpire in the Middle East in the coming months, is going to change the world we live in dramatically.
Some background and what we have to look forward to when U.S. troops leave Iraq: "There is a sense that Shia are under occupation. And the situation is getting worse. There was a plan written by a Wahhabi cleric named Nasir al Omar who wrote about converting Shias to Sunni Islam or else face execution. Unfortunately it's at a social level now as well. The hatred of Shia is so intense that killing of Shia civilians is widely accepted. http://www.altmuslim.com/perm.php?id=1512_0_25_0_C38 ...
The Sunnis have no stake in working towards a Shiite dominated Iraq. They have everything to gain from destabilizing an Iraq that is moving in this direction. So the Sunnis are becoming the proverbial fly in the ointment for the Shiites and the Coalition forces and they have started a destabilizing insurgency in Iraq.
We may note that while the Iraqi insurgency is fully dominated by Sunnis it is not limited to Iraqi Sunnis. Sunnis from all across the Islamic world have converged in to Iraq to destabilize Iraq. No wonder the Saudis and Iranians want the U.S. out of Iraq.
The Shiite-Sunni Civil War in Iraq presage a much greater and bloodier regional Shiite-Sunni and Arab-Persian war in the Middle East Not many of us today will realize and dare to predict that the Shiite-Sunni Civil war in Iraq today bloody as it is, presages a much greater and bloodier regional Shiite-Sunni and Arab-Persian war in the Middle East.
This war that will unfold over several months will be by far the most bloodiest landmark in the history of War. This will be a war that will tear the Islamic world into two irreconcilable halves. A war that will not be a formal or declared one like a conventional war, but will be marked by increasingly bold and destructive terrorists attacks on Shiite targets, first in Iraq and later across the Islamic world. Before it is over the entire M.E. will be at war, and we will have to return to finish the job we started, and much greater cost, both of million of lives and trillions of dollars.
We need to finish what we have started and help Iraq to flourish as a model democracy...of course this is going to take time. Saudi Arabia IS financing the Sunni Insurgency to overthrow the Shia, and Iran IS financing Shia independence in Iraq with hopes of uniting countries to become the biggest financial/military superpower in the M.E. and the Saudis/Sunnis just won't let this happen.
How the Shiite-Sunni war will shape up during the U.S. withdrawal …An interesting outcome of this could be that the coalition forces would gradually withdraw to heavily fortified zones inside Iraq and leave the day-to-day fighting to the Shiite Army and Police. While the Americans dream is a stable and democratic Iraq, the Sunnis have no interest in such a Shiite dominated Iraq, while most Shiites would also not want democracy per se, they would prefer a Shiite theocracy - a prospect which is the worst anathema for the Sunnis.
We may see interesting permutations, where the Sunni insurgents gradually leave the coalition forces alone, unless they enter the war on the side of the Shiite dominated Iraqi army against the Sunni insurgents. But if the Americans keep to themselves inside their fortified zones, they would be a target of secondary preference to the Sunni insurgents.
The first object of their rage is going to be the Iraqi army and the lay Shiites. So we would see schools, hospitals, and mosque gatherings on Fridays being targeted in Shiite areas. How the Shiite army and police respond to this and what would be the policy of the present and future Shiite dominated government remains an interesting question.
The Shiites have displayed remarkable restraint so far, but the only reason for this is that they know that Iraq is their inheritance by sheer force of numbers through which they will ride over the Sunnis. They want to strengthen their grasp over Iraq, till the time that they can act independently of the Coalition forces. Once they cross that critical mass, the Shiites will shed their restraint and go on a merciless offensive against the Sunnis.
They have shown evidence of this when the former Prime Minister Ilyad Allawi personally shot some tens of Sunni insurgents lodged in Iraqi prisons. And Sunni clerics have had their bodies drilled into with electric drilling machines by Shiite policemen. These are tips of the iceberg of Shiite hatred for the Sunnis. ...anyone still think we should pack our bags and go home...do we really want this kind of bloodshed on our hands?
We need to stay the course in Iraq, and finish the job, and see the Iraqi democracy to fruition. one more thing: Historic significance of the American liberation of Iraq for the Shiites When the coalition forces toppled Saddam's regime they did not bring an end only to the Baathist dictatorship of three decades, but to Sunni domination of 1400 years. ...I guess not much thought was given about this before we toppled Saddam.
Whether we believe the War in Iraq was justified or not is irrelevant now, if we do not finish the job, we will almost certainly have to return to do it, whether it is Republican or Democrat in the White House. The coming war will see all nations involved, not just M.E. nations...anyone who has a stake and interest...because of the M.E. oil...China/Russia and the SCO...the U.S. and allied nations will be there defending their interests.
Edited by dcman, 13 September 2007 - 09:44 PM.