[Isis2200]

What would you do if you found out that a gigantic asteroid were going to impact Earth within the next 6 months?

David Morrison, former professor of Astronomy at the University of Hawaii says that we don't know of any asteroid that is likely to hit the Earth. There are three or four that we cannot absolutely exclude the possiblity but we will continue to track them. http://www.nasa.gov/...7/morrison.html

There is one asteroid called "Apophys", and there is a remote possibility in 2037 it may impact the earth. Apophys is 1,000 feet wide. We will continue to track this one, but at present the probability is extremely low that it will impact with the earth.

David says what we need is more support of all governments of the world to begin to study these objects. It is currently being done in universities throughout the world, but not on a worldwide government scale.

One good thing that David stated is that there would be no "two-day" warning system. We would expect decades of warning regarding an approaching asteroid or comet.

David says "If all I had was one day left before an asteroid impact, I'd open up a good bottle of wine."

[(Moonlight)]

What would I do? Hmm... I would... travel to the exact spot it was going to hit, as a quick death is much better than a slow one of acid rain and other things that would kill you slowly and painfully.

[stevewinn]

I'd do my best to survive, after all life tries to survive at all costs, life at times maybe hard but the alternative is unacceptable.

[Isis2200]

stevewinn on Nov 1 2007, 08:44 AM, said:

I'd do my best to survive, after all life tries to survive at all costs, life at times maybe hard but the alternative is unacceptable.

I heard a scientist say "You wouldn't want to survive a nuclear holocaust." I agree. After any severe widespread cataclysmic disaster, some people don't realize what would be the aftereffects of such a disaster. To have to pick up the pieces and start over, possibly facing famine, uncontrolled crime, and rampant disease with no medicines, unclean drinking water, and other things too numerous to mention.

But on the last day, I'd have to add a good pizza with all the toppings, in addition to that good bottle of wine.

[ships-cat]

A 1000 foot wide asteroid ? I'm not sure that would do much damage. It would get heavily eroded as it passed through the atmosphere. (depending on its composition). It certainly wouldn't be 1000ft wide when it impacts.

I'd take issue with the prediction that we would have "decades" of notice of an impedning impact, however. It is conceivable that an asteroid in an eliptical orbit of the sun, in the plane of the solar system, would be unnoticed untill the very last minute. (with current monitoring capabilities). There is a name for this phenomenon (or type of orbit)... I will try and dig it out.

Meow Purr.

[keithisco]

ships-cat on Nov 4 2007, 01:54 AM, said:

A 1000 foot wide asteroid ? I'm not sure that would do much damage. It would get heavily eroded as it passed through the atmosphere. (depending on its composition). It certainly wouldn't be 1000ft wide when it impacts.

I'd take issue with the prediction that we would have "decades" of notice of an impedning impact, however. It is conceivable that an asteroid in an eliptical orbit of the sun, in the plane of the solar system, would be unnoticed untill the very last minute. (with current monitoring capabilities). There is a name for this phenomenon (or type of orbit)... I will try and dig it out.

Meow Purr.

Morning SC.

Well, if it is 1000 feet in diameter (a sphere) then roughly, assuming the density of Granite (no real reason just seemed like a good idea) then we would have an asteroid weighing, very approximately, 3.9 million metric tonnes (I roughly converted to metric, it's easier for me ).

I think a lot of that mass would survive the journey through the atmosphere, I'll let the mathematicians calculate the possible energy release though.

If I knew it was coming I would head for the opposite side of the world (hopefully the Caribbean) with my family and go snorkelling

[ships-cat]

keithisco on Nov 4 2007, 01:14 AM, said:

Morning SC.

Well, if it is 1000 feet in diameter (a sphere) then roughly, assuming the density of Granite (no real reason just seemed like a good idea) then we would have an asteroid weighing, very approximately, 3.9 million metric tonnes (I roughly converted to metric, it's easier for me ).

I think a lot of that mass would survive the journey through the atmosphere, I'll let the mathematicians calculate the possible energy release though.

If I knew it was coming I would head for the opposite side of the world (hopefully the Caribbean) with my family and go snorkelling

Hmmm.... lots of variables. I reckon it would be too small. Thermal expansion would possibly fracture it up somewhat, which would increase erosion in the atmosphere.

I'll be a couple of hundred feet away on the orange, badly-drawn yacht, fishing. (well, mainly drinking wine and looking at the fishing rod).

Meow Purr.

Meow Purr.

[Abecrombie]

This is something I've always been a bit too conscience of in my mind. There is a reality of this in a factual basis. There is also a reality of what we do not know from the scientific world. The scientific world knows the reality of a NEO [ near earth object]. But does the public know that there is a unknown belt that is still in question of the cycles of the asteriod belt? There is a asteriod belt this we know, but the cyle of it to predict is still being discovered. Therefore, I feel it to be a bit disturbing that it is such a event , catosrophic even, that this is still a unknown orbiting disaster that with what we do know is already a frightful thought. But what is there out in the universe that banks on what we dont know yet. If scientists cannot fully predict certain astriod orbiting patterens, that means the astroid belt is still a unpredictible one in that it is possible that there could be something around the corner and it may be too late to do anything about it.

This is something I go back too when they speak of its approching earth. Where not out of the woods yet, or perhaps never due to space being a constant expansive life itself and we are always going to try and see if we can catch up to it. Never. Those are my thoughts on the matter. The universe has many secrets and we are merely mortal men and women and there is something that does have a grasp on it , the intelligence that made the expanse to begin with. I'll leave it up to Him . Crossing my fingers of course and looking up always for new things never seen before with my eyes. Always becoing humble in the presence of its exhisting with me at the moment. Thankful too.

If it was to happen, I would want it to be quick and painless and beautiful as it is destructive. I would probably do a run down of what should I do that I can when today it isnt a easy thought to act when time is key, but when time is given say six months theres more time to think about what could I do that I havent thought of previously.

This is defitently a good thread topic. thanks

Abecrombie

[Waspie_Dwarf]

ships-cat on Nov 4 2007, 12:54 AM, said:

A 1000 foot wide asteroid ? I'm not sure that would do much damage. It would get heavily eroded as it passed through the atmosphere. (depending on its composition). It certainly wouldn't be 1000ft wide when it impacts.

For a small asteroid, hitting the upper atmosphere is like hitting a solid object, the sudden conversion of kinetic energy into heat energy causes the object explode and the fragments hit the ground at relatively low velocity. If the asteroid is larger than the size of a family garage then the atmosphere has no appreciable effect on it, and it slams into the ground at full speed.

Source: BBC/Open University

A thousand foot diameter asteroid would lose virtually none of it's mass as it passed through the atmosphere and would hit virtually intact. The meteor would be travelling at tens of thousands of miles an hour and would pass through the atmosphere in just a fewseconds, not enough time for much of the asteroid to be ablated.

The Barringer Crater in Arizona (also known as meteor crater) is 570 feet and nearly a mile wide. The explosion that result from the impact, 50,000 years ago was 150 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The object that caused that crater was just 150 feet in diameter.

Source: _http://www.barringercrater.com/

[Starscream]

Quote

Earth weighs about 13,170,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 pounds
(or 5,974,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kilograms).
If an asteroid was heading for Earth,
chances are that we would know about it years ahead of time and
would have a lot of time to plan a defense. The largest asteroid is called Ceres.
It is about one-quarter the size of the moon and orbits the sun between
Mars and Jupiter in a region called the asteroid belt.
Unlike most asteroids, Ceres is spherical in shape.
Ceres was discovered by the Italian astronomer Giuseppe Piazzi in 1801 as he s
earched for a planet which was predicted to exist between Mars and Jupiter.
It was the first asteroid ever discovered.
on February 12, 2001 flight controllers landed NASA's NEAR spacecraft on an asteroid called Eros.
NEAR was the first spacecraft to orbit and touchdown on the surface of an asteroid.
NEAR began orbiting Eros a year earlier, on February 14, 2000.
The spacecraft collected close up photographs and measured the size and shape of Eros before landing.
Eros is the largest of the asteroids whose orbits cross the orbit of the Earth.

source http://coolcosmos.ip...ids/index.shtml

[sumthingnice60]

it depends where the asteroid hits. an asteroid 1000 ft across isn't going to affect the entire world but it would do a large amount of regional damage. if i found out that it was gonna hit my town, i would pack and get the hell out of there.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

sumthingnice60 on Nov 4 2007, 04:14 AM, said:

an asteroid 1000 ft across isn't going to affect the entire world

Really? Such an impact may not destroy every city on the planet but it sure as hell is going to affect every man woman and child.

As well as the area devastated by the initial impact, and the earthquake it causes, there will be a shock wave far more powerful than any created by our nuclear weapons. This hot wind travelling at hundreds of miles an hour will destroy buildings hundreds of miles away from the impact point. Roads, railways and communications systems will be destroyed

An impact which causes a crater close to 6-7 miles across and thousands of feet deep is going to throw a tremendous amount of vaporised rock into the atmosphere. Debris will be sent on suborbital trajectories, raining down over a very large area (big enough impacts can cause debris to rain down over the whole world causing forest fires on every continent; although I am not sure if a 1000ft wide impactor is capable of this). The dust and smoke could cause a "nuclear winter" by blocking out the sun for long periods of time. The drop in light and temperature would cause global crop failures and starvation all over the planet.

If the asteroid impacts in the ocean ot would cause a tsunami bigger than any in human history, causing the destruction of coastal cities on several, maybe all continents.

If the initial impact is in a heavily populated part of the world the immediate death toll is likely to be millions or tens of millions. It will be impossible to bury this many bodies and so disease will take hold. If the impact is in an industrialised part of the world then it will cause a collapse of that nation (or region's) economy. This will almost certainly lead to a collapse of the global economy causing a world wide recession that will make the 1930's look like a picnic.

The impact of such a body would not destroy mankind but it would cause a significant percentage of the population to die. I expect we would survive and eventually recover but it would be a catastrophe the like of which our species has never before experienced.

Fortunately the chances of us being hit by an asteroid of this size is low, about once every million years (Source: Solarviews) but it is inevitable that it will happen again one day.

[Lilly]

Waspie_Dwarf on Nov 4 2007, 05:40 AM, said:

The impact of such a body would not destroy mankind but it would cause a significant percentage of the population to die. I expect we would survive and eventually recover but it would be a catastrophe the like of which our species has never before experienced.

Fortunately the chances of us being hit by an asteroid of this size is low, about once every million years (Source: Solarviews) but it is inevitable that it will happen again one day.

Basically, being hit by an asteroid can really ruin one's day...er... 'century' would probably be more accurate. This is why I think that looking into ways to redirect (make sure they miss Earth) these objects is very important indeed.

[sumthingnice60]

What I said about it not affecting the entire world was based on the immediate effects of the blast and the blast itself. I guess you are right in saying that the economy and our health would be at stake in the long run.

[DogsHead]

This is one of my favorite calculation sites - plug in the numbers, and go, oooooh!
Earth Impact Effects Program